| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.604067171997709 |
| beta | 0.0703089588431605 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 353 | 355.767282849865 | -2.76728284986484 |
| 14 | 350 | 350.972607223685 | -0.972607223685145 |
| 15 | 343 | 342.696726558656 | 0.303273441344231 |
| 16 | 346 | 345.002598260693 | 0.997401739307008 |
| 17 | 373 | 371.633548826925 | 1.36645117307523 |
| 18 | 363 | 362.170776180986 | 0.829223819013862 |
| 19 | 349 | 354.412772362754 | -5.4127723627538 |
| 20 | 350 | 341.244794669971 | 8.75520533002879 |
| 21 | 353 | 348.206591605717 | 4.79340839428289 |
| 22 | 356 | 352.027220040909 | 3.97277995909059 |
| 23 | 355 | 356.048526761376 | -1.04852676137563 |
| 24 | 346 | 358.101527882073 | -12.1015278820725 |
| 25 | 349 | 353.163049124451 | -4.16304912445094 |
| 26 | 348 | 348.14586671249 | -0.145866712490204 |
| 27 | 342 | 340.845472496173 | 1.15452750382741 |
| 28 | 342 | 343.896945517829 | -1.89694551782912 |
| 29 | 379 | 368.510220257027 | 10.4897797429729 |
| 30 | 375 | 364.509319221991 | 10.4906807780089 |
| 31 | 363 | 360.473742403607 | 2.52625759639295 |
| 32 | 361 | 358.441902544933 | 2.55809745506747 |
| 33 | 363 | 360.743363663273 | 2.25663633672707 |
| 34 | 373 | 363.262610127859 | 9.7373898721409 |
| 35 | 367 | 369.548773316264 | -2.54877331626426 |
| 36 | 360 | 366.872520210674 | -6.8725202106736 |
| 37 | 358 | 369.459801567944 | -11.4598015679443 |
| 38 | 367 | 362.253322192032 | 4.74667780796767 |
| 39 | 357 | 358.951708187976 | -1.95170818797573 |
| 40 | 346 | 359.695540552882 | -13.695540552882 |
| 41 | 386 | 383.100963830452 | 2.89903616954751 |
| 42 | 383 | 374.189164943507 | 8.81083505649275 |
| 43 | 367 | 365.649181674783 | 1.35081832521655 |
| 44 | 354 | 362.664797879166 | -8.6647978791657 |
| 45 | 363 | 357.37638706177 | 5.62361293823028 |
| 46 | 370 | 364.259489099363 | 5.74051090063733 |
| 47 | 361 | 362.628920802497 | -1.62892080249725 |
| 48 | 354 | 358.155358793036 | -4.1553587930357 |
| 49 | 363 | 359.87159098948 | 3.1284090105197 |
| 50 | 366 | 367.994159890913 | -1.99415989091261 |
| 51 | 353 | 357.74376080876 | -4.74376080876027 |
| 52 | 351 | 351.699854617891 | -0.699854617890765 |
| 53 | 389 | 390.328664004253 | -1.3286640042528 |
| 54 | 385 | 381.119998782689 | 3.88000121731147 |
| 55 | 364 | 366.461864237559 | -2.46186423755927 |
| 56 | 348 | 356.884978325654 | -8.88497832565406 |
| 57 | 347 | 356.723802955268 | -9.7238029552684 |
| 58 | 352 | 353.252208419052 | -1.25220841905212 |
| 59 | 342 | 343.611797838406 | -1.61179783840635 |
| 60 | 338 | 337.135788903484 | 0.864211096516442 |
| 61 | 343 | 343.386242183586 | -0.386242183586432 |
| 62 | 354 | 345.924702118619 | 8.07529788138129 |
| 63 | 329 | 340.31550124668 | -11.3155012466801 |
| 64 | 320 | 330.948138572574 | -10.9481385725744 |
| 65 | 353 | 358.547533529034 | -5.54753352903435 |
| 66 | 345 | 347.600449935565 | -2.60044993556534 |
| 67 | 324 | 326.538974496149 | -2.53897449614863 |
| 68 | 310 | 313.558180460462 | -3.55818046046221 |
| 69 | 314 | 313.964775078003 | 0.035224921996587 |
| 70 | 313 | 317.794813879693 | -4.79481387969338 |
| 71 | 310 | 305.295429512083 | 4.70457048791684 |
| 72 | 301 | 302.816092223163 | -1.81609222316257 |
| 73 | 294 | 305.002581965368 | -11.0025819653684 |
| 74 | 296 | 301.745160956462 | -5.74516095646209 |
| 75 | 274 | 280.558513439322 | -6.55851343932233 |
| 76 | 269 | 272.311739771828 | -3.31173977182817 |
| 77 | 292 | 298.815311980841 | -6.81531198084105 |
| 78 | 287 | 287.062628017994 | -0.0626280179935748 |
| 79 | 271 | 268.756571786857 | 2.24342821314326 |
| 80 | 256 | 258.400939301071 | -2.40093930107082 |
| 81 | 260 | 258.403949679111 | 1.59605032088905 |
| 82 | 265 | 259.113799023346 | 5.88620097665410 |
| 83 | 263 | 256.409140039636 | 6.59085996036379 |
| 84 | 256 | 252.542827425169 | 3.45717257483091 |
| 85 | 246 | 253.26125691526 | -7.26125691525982 |
| 86 | 245 | 252.552456822219 | -7.55245682221889 |
| 87 | 220 | 231.830451932749 | -11.8304519327494 |
| 88 | 224 | 220.875750867249 | 3.12424913275075 |
| 89 | 240 | 243.998508396941 | -3.99850839694082 |
| 90 | 238 | 236.357885995989 | 1.64211400401120 |
| 91 | 222 | 221.994522913074 | 0.00547708692633364 |
| 92 | 203 | 209.830381508620 | -6.83038150861972 |
| 93 | 209 | 206.783332018890 | 2.21666798110974 |
| 94 | 214 | 207.898149750457 | 6.10185024954319 |
| 95 | 216 | 205.485556445498 | 10.5144435545020 |
| 96 | 214 | 203.483084454116 | 10.5169155458839 |
| 97 | 206 | 204.543132671038 | 1.45686732896226 |
| 98 | 196 | 208.052531955809 | -12.0525319558091 |
| 99 | 169 | 185.455340566486 | -16.4553405664857 |
| 100 | 177 | 176.226748266972 | 0.773251733028019 |
| 101 | 193 | 190.027725369628 | 2.97227463037163 |
| 102 | 183 | 188.548670045437 | -5.54867004543664 |
| 103 | 164 | 171.547067692069 | -7.54706769206913 |
| 104 | 142 | 154.219947267134 | -12.2199472671343 |
| 105 | 141 | 148.160059889812 | -7.16005988981192 |
| 106 | 137 | 142.079166652793 | -5.07916665279262 |
| 107 | 140 | 132.929680915740 | 7.07031908426043 |
| 108 | 146 | 128.670249561701 | 17.3297504382987 |
| 109 | 136 | 130.784286195767 | 5.21571380423288 |
| 110 | 124 | 129.657060689831 | -5.6570606898311 |
| 111 | 105 | 112.851974654600 | -7.85197465459972 |
| 112 | 114 | 110.706191524176 | 3.29380847582370 |
| 113 | 135 | 119.396696857702 | 15.6033031422985 |
| 114 | 123 | 122.756141378609 | 0.243858621390601 |
| 115 | 100 | 111.812161686028 | -11.8121616860280 |
| 116 | 74 | 93.5276024625379 | -19.5276024625379 |
| 117 | 64 | 80.9839341426352 | -16.9839341426352 |
| 118 | 57 | 66.5668433464246 | -9.56684334642462 |
| 119 | 62 | 55.7468704734617 | 6.25312952653834 |
| 120 | 64 | 52.9738768675282 | 11.0261231324718 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 50.1310022505785 | 36.3659894325471 | 63.89601506861 |
| 122 | 42.7134322932292 | 26.4792478318652 | 58.9476167545932 |
| 123 | 33.8597974522712 | 15.7862611517692 | 51.9333337527731 |
| 124 | 31.7957281947164 | 9.89408957299009 | 53.6973668164428 |
| 125 | 29.6683022081574 | 2.79624814561118 | 56.5403562707036 |
| 126 | 21.623822752465 | -6.50999544322888 | 49.7576409481589 |
| 127 | 13.7602879246225 | -14.5227010476891 | 42.0432768969341 |
| 128 | 7.12817126818914 | -20.9065982331291 | 35.1629407695074 |
| 129 | 2.17906971793759 | -29.7438008892835 | 34.1019403251587 |
| 130 | -3.40015302711963 | -39.887541806779 | 33.0872357525397 |
| 131 | -10.4762434400666 | -54.6994349640185 | 33.7469480838852 |
| 132 | -17.6446353131815 | -64.2947760881851 | 29.0055054618220 |
