| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.048882612475808 |
| beta | 0.161657597483346 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 18 | 17.3403175805076 | 0.659682419492437 |
| 14 | 19 | 18.3222222115775 | 0.677777788422503 |
| 15 | 20 | 19.5143080194186 | 0.485691980581375 |
| 16 | 21 | 20.6851560013707 | 0.314843998629325 |
| 17 | 46 | 44.626779592692 | 1.37322040730801 |
| 18 | 47 | 44.2410339021109 | 2.75896609788911 |
| 19 | 30 | 26.1233273973336 | 3.87667260266644 |
| 20 | 16 | 16.3215848230105 | -0.321584823010500 |
| 21 | 15 | 17.8509300262992 | -2.85093002629920 |
| 22 | 18 | 17.9884293958987 | 0.0115706041013048 |
| 23 | 30 | 19.1227938535176 | 10.8772061464824 |
| 24 | 31 | 21.7865817553551 | 9.2134182446449 |
| 25 | 32 | 21.7186090885486 | 10.2813909114514 |
| 26 | 36 | 23.6427073434576 | 12.3572926565424 |
| 27 | 30 | 25.816938440802 | 4.183061559198 |
| 28 | 31 | 27.6637317334764 | 3.33626826652364 |
| 29 | 61 | 61.684300799127 | -0.684300799127037 |
| 30 | 57 | 63.6008205672313 | -6.60082056723132 |
| 31 | 45 | 40.5478047363496 | 4.45219526365036 |
| 32 | 33 | 21.9906275119373 | 11.0093724880627 |
| 33 | 31 | 21.5762200195341 | 9.42377998046586 |
| 34 | 36 | 26.8966970326193 | 9.10330296738067 |
| 35 | 46 | 45.1656286489439 | 0.83437135105607 |
| 36 | 49 | 46.4075213338745 | 2.5924786661255 |
| 37 | 34 | 47.4558834629241 | -13.4558834629241 |
| 38 | 40 | 51.6045402604209 | -11.6045402604209 |
| 39 | 41 | 42.1979419471531 | -1.19794194715305 |
| 40 | 48 | 43.2354074516473 | 4.76459254835267 |
| 41 | 75 | 85.4746137366246 | -10.4746137366246 |
| 42 | 77 | 79.6416181372721 | -2.64161813727213 |
| 43 | 71 | 62.3513914117481 | 8.6486085882519 |
| 44 | 54 | 44.8840432396329 | 9.11595676036709 |
| 45 | 50 | 41.5677319028255 | 8.43226809717455 |
| 46 | 56 | 47.7513087746117 | 8.24869122538834 |
| 47 | 66 | 61.162454809098 | 4.837545190902 |
| 48 | 66 | 64.935905528144 | 1.06409447185604 |
| 49 | 48 | 45.5233673327292 | 2.47663266727076 |
| 50 | 63 | 54.1849483502086 | 8.81505164979138 |
| 51 | 71 | 56.0930945182578 | 14.9069054817422 |
| 52 | 70 | 66.3327029399549 | 3.66729706004509 |
| 53 | 88 | 104.762930085779 | -16.7629300857786 |
| 54 | 92 | 107.069985011176 | -15.069985011176 |
| 55 | 91 | 97.4753145285674 | -6.4753145285674 |
| 56 | 80 | 73.1312000938453 | 6.86879990615469 |
| 57 | 81 | 67.2749250095882 | 13.7250749904118 |
| 58 | 81 | 75.3754545803505 | 5.62454541964954 |
| 59 | 98 | 88.6615135162963 | 9.33848648370375 |
| 60 | 106 | 88.9146474176363 | 17.0853525823637 |
| 61 | 85 | 65.0830798797755 | 19.9169201202245 |
| 62 | 93 | 86.1363217138893 | 6.86367828611071 |
| 63 | 96 | 96.2787162212688 | -0.278716221268837 |
| 64 | 92 | 94.5586586943847 | -2.55865869438473 |
| 65 | 115 | 119.473439411829 | -4.47343941182881 |
| 66 | 109 | 125.461671730956 | -16.4616717309559 |
| 67 | 119 | 123.638077994263 | -4.63807799426318 |
| 68 | 107 | 107.963704240528 | -0.963704240527619 |
| 69 | 107 | 108.078811227408 | -1.07881122740775 |
| 70 | 106 | 107.376115080397 | -1.3761150803967 |
| 71 | 132 | 128.793022367278 | 3.20697763272221 |
| 72 | 143 | 137.722070376683 | 5.27792962331702 |
| 73 | 120 | 108.557674219712 | 11.4423257802884 |
| 74 | 123 | 118.293800888414 | 4.70619911158637 |
| 75 | 132 | 121.712892332623 | 10.2871076673769 |
| 76 | 136 | 116.749489767346 | 19.2505102326544 |
| 77 | 158 | 146.936191780592 | 11.0638082194077 |
| 78 | 151 | 140.382774253301 | 10.6172257466991 |
| 79 | 155 | 154.008641991384 | 0.99135800861609 |
| 80 | 138 | 138.535149672799 | -0.535149672799463 |
| 81 | 143 | 138.535936646987 | 4.46406335301339 |
| 82 | 139 | 137.544349834405 | 1.45565016559530 |
| 83 | 168 | 171.190314126318 | -3.19031412631762 |
| 84 | 182 | 184.915039224158 | -2.91503922415833 |
| 85 | 154 | 154.181022699430 | -0.181022699430315 |
| 86 | 158 | 157.527711166154 | 0.472288833846278 |
| 87 | 167 | 168.14309287129 | -1.14309287129001 |
| 88 | 170 | 171.452391716854 | -1.45239171685412 |
| 89 | 197 | 197.758183304578 | -0.758183304578125 |
| 90 | 190 | 187.599879680578 | 2.40012031942177 |
| 91 | 196 | 191.890999864295 | 4.10900013570509 |
| 92 | 174 | 170.441527401133 | 3.5584725988667 |
| 93 | 180 | 175.937358127988 | 4.06264187201239 |
| 94 | 171 | 170.565875246075 | 0.434124753924976 |
| 95 | 200 | 205.707759817235 | -5.70775981723472 |
| 96 | 215 | 222.018637118999 | -7.01863711899881 |
| 97 | 184 | 186.989891114585 | -2.98989111458459 |
| 98 | 186 | 191.062430557554 | -5.06243055755434 |
| 99 | 197 | 201.090801555265 | -4.09080155526541 |
| 100 | 186 | 203.9151303878 | -17.9151303877999 |
| 101 | 211 | 234.450066175983 | -23.4500661759826 |
| 102 | 205 | 223.899734702572 | -18.8997347025715 |
| 103 | 218 | 228.648686161373 | -10.6486861613727 |
| 104 | 199 | 201.250187125254 | -2.25018712525417 |
| 105 | 213 | 206.728554076613 | 6.27144592338664 |
| 106 | 207 | 195.644743520633 | 11.3552564793668 |
| 107 | 236 | 228.723416363188 | 7.27658363681212 |
| 108 | 248 | 245.636049852908 | 2.36395014709171 |
| 109 | 211 | 209.707970036171 | 1.29202996382949 |
| 110 | 220 | 211.598424922148 | 8.40157507785165 |
| 111 | 235 | 224.126388372219 | 10.8736116277811 |
| 112 | 223 | 212.538416518352 | 10.4615834816476 |
| 113 | 245 | 242.567399134868 | 2.43260086513197 |
| 114 | 236 | 236.659599269668 | -0.659599269667865 |
| 115 | 253 | 252.249975055633 | 0.750024944367482 |
| 116 | 246 | 230.545836572437 | 15.4541634275628 |
| 117 | 255 | 247.475132600746 | 7.52486739925425 |
| 118 | 248 | 240.434439057190 | 7.5655609428103 |
| 119 | 274 | 274.344258319853 | -0.344258319852543 |
| 120 | 288 | 288.308135318980 | -0.308135318979623 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 245.327944621114 | 229.590902578786 | 261.064986663443 |
| 122 | 255.407562552814 | 239.643662019886 | 271.171463085742 |
| 123 | 272.213213886201 | 256.409389540769 | 288.017038231633 |
| 124 | 257.636372890699 | 241.802622022783 | 273.470123758614 |
| 125 | 282.753077942025 | 266.843640701815 | 298.662515182235 |
| 126 | 272.231355707789 | 256.278035701007 | 288.184675714572 |
| 127 | 291.624554208902 | 275.563358892922 | 307.685749524883 |
| 128 | 282.458554241940 | 266.339208433247 | 298.577900050634 |
| 129 | 292.042617319936 | 275.802518156576 | 308.282716483297 |
| 130 | 283.228052341901 | 266.91990000235 | 299.536204681452 |
| 131 | 312.479099132395 | 295.918410124013 | 329.039788140776 |
| 132 | 327.991553968614 | 316.097337726568 | 339.885770210660 |
