| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.531154412223295 |
| beta | 0.0234130278133079 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 341 | 344.971005098799 | -3.97100509879908 |
| 14 | 343 | 345.230084535257 | -2.23008453525716 |
| 15 | 341 | 342.031277410535 | -1.03127741053476 |
| 16 | 335 | 334.961361197232 | 0.0386388027675366 |
| 17 | 355 | 354.43622356125 | 0.563776438749869 |
| 18 | 357 | 356.760407072831 | 0.239592927169099 |
| 19 | 337 | 340.962517825021 | -3.96251782502145 |
| 20 | 325 | 328.868357744425 | -3.86835774442505 |
| 21 | 336 | 327.365575032792 | 8.6344249672075 |
| 22 | 338 | 331.852138619124 | 6.14786138087607 |
| 23 | 337 | 336.248590106486 | 0.75140989351371 |
| 24 | 328 | 338.656364206358 | -10.6563642063585 |
| 25 | 326 | 329.227864980564 | -3.22786498056416 |
| 26 | 327 | 330.433855824206 | -3.43385582420603 |
| 27 | 319 | 327.065605231230 | -8.06560523123034 |
| 28 | 310 | 316.837320985567 | -6.8373209855668 |
| 29 | 320 | 331.263876005043 | -11.2638760050435 |
| 30 | 322 | 326.471034633389 | -4.47103463338897 |
| 31 | 303 | 307.277186128511 | -4.27718612851055 |
| 32 | 292 | 295.435934275592 | -3.4359342755921 |
| 33 | 303 | 298.783531252887 | 4.21646874711342 |
| 34 | 315 | 299.242676600137 | 15.7573233998633 |
| 35 | 311 | 305.854408188781 | 5.14559181121939 |
| 36 | 307 | 305.030028199762 | 1.96997180023806 |
| 37 | 308 | 305.538420223475 | 2.46157977652547 |
| 38 | 312 | 309.303769913428 | 2.6962300865722 |
| 39 | 309 | 307.047794162493 | 1.95220583750677 |
| 40 | 310 | 302.888043117739 | 7.11195688226121 |
| 41 | 309 | 322.610335665247 | -13.6103356652467 |
| 42 | 304 | 319.873465336919 | -15.8734653369193 |
| 43 | 287 | 295.275493038155 | -8.27549303815533 |
| 44 | 275 | 282.029435349058 | -7.0294353490579 |
| 45 | 290 | 286.539307443089 | 3.46069255691071 |
| 46 | 298 | 291.539167893954 | 6.46083210604621 |
| 47 | 294 | 288.419975683605 | 5.58002431639483 |
| 48 | 286 | 286.439241295129 | -0.439241295128795 |
| 49 | 294 | 285.667443830981 | 8.33255616901937 |
| 50 | 292 | 292.341572900368 | -0.341572900368249 |
| 51 | 287 | 288.173121250955 | -1.17312125095521 |
| 52 | 281 | 284.681943920705 | -3.68194392070501 |
| 53 | 280 | 287.876034282732 | -7.87603428273155 |
| 54 | 271 | 286.31467221216 | -15.3146722121599 |
| 55 | 264 | 266.245851842678 | -2.24585184267846 |
| 56 | 259 | 257.113523706497 | 1.88647629350316 |
| 57 | 271 | 270.310769897146 | 0.689230102854026 |
| 58 | 279 | 274.716165390592 | 4.28383460940785 |
| 59 | 279 | 270.278907563854 | 8.7210924361458 |
| 60 | 273 | 267.487340650798 | 5.51265934920156 |
| 61 | 286 | 273.661883104419 | 12.3381168955813 |
| 62 | 286 | 278.467856263020 | 7.53214373698034 |
| 63 | 280 | 278.331495093703 | 1.66850490629741 |
| 64 | 277 | 275.408983534337 | 1.59101646566251 |
| 65 | 269 | 279.546521296137 | -10.5465212961367 |
| 66 | 255 | 273.066915316 | -18.066915316 |
| 67 | 252 | 257.940750965684 | -5.9407509656844 |
| 68 | 245 | 249.051848488310 | -4.05184848830973 |
| 69 | 257 | 257.961202050557 | -0.961202050557006 |
| 70 | 267 | 262.818639635673 | 4.18136036432747 |
| 71 | 261 | 260.520528579927 | 0.479471420072628 |
| 72 | 258 | 252.237221825492 | 5.7627781745079 |
| 73 | 271 | 261.036379678613 | 9.96362032138666 |
| 74 | 262 | 262.367878948694 | -0.367878948693885 |
| 75 | 258 | 255.568252648599 | 2.43174735140101 |
| 76 | 253 | 253.055750819112 | -0.0557508191115801 |
| 77 | 236 | 250.447748694841 | -14.4477486948412 |
| 78 | 228 | 238.157417061136 | -10.1574170611362 |
| 79 | 235 | 232.590167607075 | 2.4098323929249 |
| 80 | 226 | 229.192164888464 | -3.19216488846354 |
| 81 | 231 | 238.947510546337 | -7.94751054633679 |
| 82 | 235 | 241.53163023721 | -6.53163023720987 |
| 83 | 227 | 232.049073345839 | -5.0490733458391 |
| 84 | 222 | 223.499654305332 | -1.49965430533229 |
| 85 | 233 | 228.639646522368 | 4.36035347763192 |
| 86 | 221 | 222.767286701235 | -1.76728670123529 |
| 87 | 218 | 216.645284690256 | 1.35471530974414 |
| 88 | 220 | 212.47616214352 | 7.52383785647987 |
| 89 | 204 | 207.737225301989 | -3.73722530198881 |
| 90 | 196 | 202.938562717491 | -6.93856271749127 |
| 91 | 208 | 203.811378631308 | 4.18862136869248 |
| 92 | 190 | 199.227057633402 | -9.22705763340161 |
| 93 | 191 | 201.675223548629 | -10.6752235486290 |
| 94 | 194 | 201.692966021135 | -7.69296602113548 |
| 95 | 179 | 192.469333396527 | -13.4693333965270 |
| 96 | 162 | 181.090369306887 | -19.090369306887 |
| 97 | 179 | 176.476873979083 | 2.52312602091683 |
| 98 | 176 | 168.252141071971 | 7.74785892802885 |
| 99 | 168 | 168.494785808252 | -0.494785808251777 |
| 100 | 170 | 165.639871926519 | 4.36012807348078 |
| 101 | 153 | 156.268837803188 | -3.26883780318838 |
| 102 | 142 | 150.243512661275 | -8.24351266127513 |
| 103 | 155 | 152.028965146592 | 2.9710348534083 |
| 104 | 136 | 142.808469363308 | -6.80846936330826 |
| 105 | 136 | 142.870668125711 | -6.87066812571109 |
| 106 | 144 | 143.181118537295 | 0.81888146270461 |
| 107 | 135 | 136.611460286680 | -1.61146028667986 |
| 108 | 114 | 129.298602276119 | -15.2986022761191 |
| 109 | 135 | 131.883536184493 | 3.11646381550671 |
| 110 | 132 | 127.206571026194 | 4.79342897380643 |
| 111 | 123 | 123.085158709136 | -0.0851587091361665 |
| 112 | 123 | 121.805782460192 | 1.19421753980778 |
| 113 | 103 | 110.479564649033 | -7.47956464903281 |
| 114 | 97 | 100.779417214822 | -3.77941721482249 |
| 115 | 113 | 105.592283799236 | 7.40771620076369 |
| 116 | 108 | 97.663230980736 | 10.3367690192641 |
| 117 | 111 | 105.197589085138 | 5.80241091486204 |
| 118 | 121 | 113.835101793862 | 7.16489820613818 |
| 119 | 111 | 110.664326344468 | 0.335673655531906 |
| 120 | 97 | 99.6124134355594 | -2.61241343555938 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 114.816336493040 | 101.307662274083 | 128.325010711998 |
| 122 | 109.937861190096 | 94.633224997304 | 125.242497382889 |
| 123 | 102.265824995242 | 85.5186842746664 | 119.012965715817 |
| 124 | 101.515558884285 | 82.9645523451852 | 120.066565423386 |
| 125 | 87.9586018874726 | 69.0316348189462 | 106.885568955999 |
| 126 | 84.4431352797586 | 64.1282615071186 | 104.758009052399 |
| 127 | 94.84402736932 | 70.8973535825154 | 118.790701156125 |
| 128 | 85.6716481002423 | 61.5890113991952 | 109.754284801289 |
| 129 | 85.1616035253664 | 59.2495411975863 | 111.073665853146 |
| 130 | 89.2864481680714 | 60.3402311909033 | 118.232665145240 |
| 131 | 81.1325281080684 | 52.3728565984233 | 109.892199617713 |
| 132 | 71.3014872418878 | 46.4314347299195 | 96.171539753856 |
