| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.658681111002325 |
| beta | 0.0625489335806356 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 353 | 355.748664529915 | -2.74866452991461 |
| 14 | 350 | 350.827694757025 | -0.82769475702463 |
| 15 | 343 | 342.596263962347 | 0.403736037653118 |
| 16 | 346 | 344.98425388273 | 1.01574611727017 |
| 17 | 373 | 371.775545153595 | 1.22445484640519 |
| 18 | 363 | 362.296422884791 | 0.703577115208532 |
| 19 | 349 | 354.503195530486 | -5.50319553048615 |
| 20 | 350 | 340.853287046443 | 9.1467129535572 |
| 21 | 353 | 348.563172646151 | 4.43682735384903 |
| 22 | 356 | 352.395208637345 | 3.60479136265491 |
| 23 | 355 | 356.327714924480 | -1.32771492448035 |
| 24 | 346 | 358.039904232956 | -12.0399042329558 |
| 25 | 349 | 352.595297336999 | -3.59529733699878 |
| 26 | 348 | 347.658702350461 | 0.341297649539058 |
| 27 | 342 | 340.552110173856 | 1.44788982614432 |
| 28 | 342 | 343.814308810741 | -1.81430881074141 |
| 29 | 379 | 368.673688627559 | 10.3263113724408 |
| 30 | 375 | 365.247952635750 | 9.75204736425047 |
| 31 | 363 | 361.905038865206 | 1.09496113479446 |
| 32 | 361 | 358.48209066464 | 2.51790933536017 |
| 33 | 363 | 360.825618854876 | 2.17438114512356 |
| 34 | 373 | 363.397705572466 | 9.60229442753405 |
| 35 | 367 | 370.358463117726 | -3.35846311772599 |
| 36 | 360 | 367.754464817046 | -7.75446481704563 |
| 37 | 358 | 368.869159432285 | -10.8691594322851 |
| 38 | 367 | 361.039621107342 | 5.96037889265807 |
| 39 | 357 | 358.797995448988 | -1.79799544898844 |
| 40 | 346 | 359.461093954553 | -13.4610939545531 |
| 41 | 386 | 380.965287357280 | 5.03471264272036 |
| 42 | 383 | 373.812563238337 | 9.18743676166332 |
| 43 | 367 | 367.074157386902 | -0.0741573869016179 |
| 44 | 354 | 363.249877859877 | -9.24987785987696 |
| 45 | 363 | 357.123169616077 | 5.87683038392254 |
| 46 | 370 | 364.220052362909 | 5.7799476370912 |
| 47 | 361 | 363.632646526404 | -2.63264652640419 |
| 48 | 354 | 359.429490602323 | -5.42949060232343 |
| 49 | 363 | 360.531485299738 | 2.46851470026229 |
| 50 | 366 | 367.299957423934 | -1.29995742393447 |
| 51 | 353 | 357.397378361618 | -4.39737836161828 |
| 52 | 351 | 352.029755257315 | -1.02975525731483 |
| 53 | 389 | 388.209652123687 | 0.790347876313376 |
| 54 | 385 | 379.67822862389 | 5.32177137611029 |
| 55 | 364 | 367.07274066793 | -3.07274066792979 |
| 56 | 348 | 357.858278913217 | -9.8582789132165 |
| 57 | 347 | 356.185568294151 | -9.18556829415104 |
| 58 | 352 | 352.399206459288 | -0.399206459287768 |
| 59 | 342 | 343.686892149996 | -1.68689214999563 |
| 60 | 338 | 338.007596854715 | -0.00759685471535931 |
| 61 | 343 | 344.455535686608 | -1.45553568660756 |
| 62 | 354 | 346.270295870293 | 7.7297041297071 |
| 63 | 329 | 340.547432945162 | -11.5474329451620 |
| 64 | 320 | 330.614313400402 | -10.6143134004017 |
| 65 | 353 | 359.702072631114 | -6.70207263111399 |
| 66 | 345 | 346.073301658595 | -1.07330165859537 |
| 67 | 324 | 324.417926586511 | -0.417926586511101 |
| 68 | 310 | 312.773118377198 | -2.7731183771981 |
| 69 | 314 | 314.425795249205 | -0.425795249205464 |
| 70 | 313 | 318.198099858792 | -5.19809985879226 |
| 71 | 310 | 304.477438354091 | 5.52256164590949 |
| 72 | 301 | 303.009182051353 | -2.00918205135287 |
| 73 | 294 | 306.45117348886 | -12.4511734888599 |
| 74 | 296 | 302.512060348188 | -6.51206034818756 |
| 75 | 274 | 278.595657051527 | -4.5956570515267 |
| 76 | 269 | 271.61333597285 | -2.61333597284994 |
| 77 | 292 | 305.68945192654 | -13.6894519265402 |
| 78 | 287 | 287.474495763584 | -0.474495763584343 |
| 79 | 271 | 264.556969111037 | 6.44303088896265 |
| 80 | 256 | 255.029877027782 | 0.970122972217894 |
| 81 | 260 | 258.505967270611 | 1.49403272938935 |
| 82 | 265 | 260.549670407435 | 4.45032959256486 |
| 83 | 263 | 255.876646589917 | 7.1233534100827 |
| 84 | 256 | 251.991262678782 | 4.00873732121761 |
| 85 | 246 | 255.180219583985 | -9.18021958398452 |
| 86 | 245 | 254.904640710207 | -9.90464071020656 |
| 87 | 220 | 228.749827035597 | -8.74982703559684 |
| 88 | 224 | 218.878798887788 | 5.12120111221154 |
| 89 | 240 | 253.758644722309 | -13.7586447223085 |
| 90 | 238 | 239.495399990311 | -1.49539999031083 |
| 91 | 222 | 217.711217730945 | 4.28878226905451 |
| 92 | 203 | 204.253113520854 | -1.25311352085350 |
| 93 | 209 | 205.707980872657 | 3.29201912734322 |
| 94 | 214 | 209.283461026448 | 4.71653897355239 |
| 95 | 216 | 205.047542970864 | 10.9524570291362 |
| 96 | 214 | 202.128403441365 | 11.871596558635 |
| 97 | 206 | 205.82594878197 | 0.174051218029859 |
| 98 | 196 | 211.681098570010 | -15.6810985700105 |
| 99 | 169 | 182.094117811691 | -13.0941178116913 |
| 100 | 177 | 173.895564266526 | 3.10443573347391 |
| 101 | 193 | 200.719399464561 | -7.71939946456064 |
| 102 | 183 | 194.585026907671 | -11.5850269076714 |
| 103 | 164 | 167.6788163532 | -3.67881635320 |
| 104 | 142 | 146.302355948336 | -4.30235594833587 |
| 105 | 141 | 146.395760586422 | -5.39576058642174 |
| 106 | 137 | 143.472721131887 | -6.47272113188671 |
| 107 | 140 | 132.271831385403 | 7.7281686145974 |
| 108 | 146 | 125.686539586649 | 20.3134604133506 |
| 109 | 136 | 129.443697044552 | 6.55630295544839 |
| 110 | 124 | 132.845709923259 | -8.84570992325857 |
| 111 | 105 | 107.680329139749 | -2.68032913974920 |
| 112 | 114 | 111.335332996309 | 2.66466700369078 |
| 113 | 135 | 133.6223222603 | 1.37767773969989 |
| 114 | 123 | 131.982609556056 | -8.98260955605616 |
| 115 | 100 | 109.418318830872 | -9.41831883087198 |
| 116 | 74 | 83.741282029476 | -9.741282029476 |
| 117 | 64 | 79.3476377788613 | -15.3476377788613 |
| 118 | 57 | 68.5605511026289 | -11.5605511026289 |
| 119 | 62 | 57.7044714676871 | 4.29552853231285 |
| 120 | 64 | 51.8613739100283 | 12.1386260899717 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 43.9091547761073 | 30.1163524637596 | 57.7019570884551 |
| 122 | 35.8363485003482 | 19.0010295385318 | 52.6716674621646 |
| 123 | 17.0669638494532 | -2.62843301416942 | 36.7623607130758 |
| 124 | 22.8873602278348 | 0.430082670032359 | 45.3446377856372 |
| 125 | 41.445688374019 | 16.2795250173210 | 66.6118517307169 |
| 126 | 33.7713820176706 | 5.92225480600992 | 61.6205092293313 |
| 127 | 15.7541508572672 | -14.7694380674662 | 46.2777397820005 |
| 128 | -4.66231768248794 | -37.8636490074922 | 28.5390136425163 |
| 129 | -4.98464670685161 | -40.8752651139402 | 30.905971700237 |
| 130 | -4.16913856730358 | -42.7665424306451 | 34.4282652960379 |
| 131 | -1.32143817223447 | -42.6475017189214 | 40.0046253744524 |
| 132 | -6.81681291113506 | -50.8966740717622 | 37.2630482494921 |
