| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.9999492214626 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 158 | 159 | -1 |
| 3 | 157 | 158.000050778537 | -1.0000507785374 |
| 4 | 155 | 157.000050781116 | -2.00005078111585 |
| 5 | 175 | 155.000101559653 | 19.9998984403466 |
| 6 | 174 | 174.998984434409 | -0.998984434409039 |
| 7 | 159 | 174.000050726968 | -15.0000507269685 |
| 8 | 149 | 159.000761680637 | -10.0007616806368 |
| 9 | 150 | 149.000507824051 | 0.999492175948973 |
| 10 | 150 | 149.999949247249 | 5.07527508375460e-05 |
| 11 | 151 | 149.999999997423 | 1.00000000257717 |
| 12 | 153 | 150.999949221462 | 2.00005077853754 |
| 13 | 146 | 152.999898440347 | -6.99989844034673 |
| 14 | 156 | 146.000355444605 | 9.99964455539526 |
| 15 | 154 | 155.999492232675 | -1.99949223267495 |
| 16 | 151 | 154.000101531291 | -3.00010153129111 |
| 17 | 171 | 151.000152340768 | 19.9998476592322 |
| 18 | 167 | 170.998984436988 | -3.99898443698766 |
| 19 | 144 | 167.000203062581 | -23.0002030625808 |
| 20 | 138 | 144.001167916671 | -6.00116791667142 |
| 21 | 138 | 138.000304730530 | -0.000304730529506969 |
| 22 | 132 | 138.000000015474 | -6.00000001547377 |
| 23 | 132 | 132.000304671225 | -0.000304671225194397 |
| 24 | 132 | 132.000000015471 | -1.54707606725424e-08 |
| 25 | 125 | 132.000000000001 | -7.0000000000008 |
| 26 | 131 | 125.000355449762 | 5.9996445502382 |
| 27 | 129 | 130.999695346825 | -1.99969534682481 |
| 28 | 131 | 129.000101541605 | 1.99989845839505 |
| 29 | 145 | 130.999898448081 | 14.0001015519187 |
| 30 | 156 | 144.999289095320 | 11.0007109046803 |
| 31 | 126 | 155.99944139999 | -29.9994413999899 |
| 32 | 123 | 126.001523327757 | -3.0015233277571 |
| 33 | 127 | 123.000152412965 | 3.99984758703545 |
| 34 | 116 | 126.999796893590 | -10.9997968935897 |
| 35 | 114 | 116.000558553598 | -2.00055855359795 |
| 36 | 114 | 114.000101585437 | -0.000101585437334961 |
| 37 | 109 | 114.000000005158 | -5.00000000515837 |
| 38 | 110 | 109.000253892687 | 0.999746107312731 |
| 39 | 113 | 109.999949234355 | 3.0000507656451 |
| 40 | 114 | 112.99984766181 | 1.00015233819001 |
| 41 | 138 | 113.999949213727 | 24.0000507862729 |
| 42 | 155 | 137.998781312524 | 17.0012186874764 |
| 43 | 126 | 154.999136702981 | -28.9991367029810 |
| 44 | 123 | 126.001472533748 | -3.00147253374763 |
| 45 | 124 | 123.000152410385 | 0.999847589614689 |
| 46 | 124 | 123.999949229202 | 5.07707982251304e-05 |
| 47 | 134 | 123.999999997422 | 10.0000000025781 |
| 48 | 131 | 133.999492214626 | -2.99949221462586 |
| 49 | 126 | 131.000152309828 | -5.0001523098276 |
| 50 | 128 | 126.000253900421 | 1.99974609957893 |
| 51 | 128 | 127.999898455818 | 0.000101544182101065 |
| 52 | 124 | 127.999999994844 | -3.99999999484373 |
| 53 | 148 | 124.000203114149 | 23.9997968858507 |
| 54 | 174 | 147.998781325416 | 26.0012186745838 |
| 55 | 146 | 173.998679696145 | -27.9986796961451 |
| 56 | 137 | 146.001421732004 | -9.00142173200408 |
| 57 | 152 | 137.00045707903 | 14.9995429209699 |
| 58 | 159 | 151.999238345149 | 7.0007616548512 |
| 59 | 170 | 158.999644511562 | 11.0003554884375 |
| 60 | 166 | 169.999441418037 | -3.99944141803741 |
| 61 | 165 | 166.000203085786 | -1.00020308578561 |
| 62 | 168 | 165.000050788850 | 2.99994921115021 |
| 63 | 175 | 167.999847666967 | 7.00015233303321 |
| 64 | 180 | 174.999644542503 | 5.00035545749705 |
| 65 | 199 | 179.999746089263 | 19.0002539107366 |
| 66 | 228 | 198.999035194896 | 29.0009648051038 |
| 67 | 206 | 227.998527373424 | -21.9985273734240 |
| 68 | 193 | 206.001117053045 | -13.0011170530450 |
| 69 | 201 | 193.000660177709 | 7.99933982229146 |
| 70 | 214 | 200.999593805224 | 13.0004061947763 |
| 71 | 225 | 213.999339858388 | 11.0006601416122 |
| 72 | 224 | 224.999441402568 | -0.999441402567584 |
| 73 | 215 | 224.000050750173 | -9.00005075017265 |
| 74 | 222 | 215.000457009414 | 6.99954299058638 |
| 75 | 238 | 221.999644573444 | 16.0003554265555 |
| 76 | 248 | 237.999187525354 | 10.0008124746464 |
| 77 | 262 | 247.99949217337 | 14.0005078266303 |
| 78 | 288 | 261.999289074690 | 26.0007109253103 |
| 79 | 261 | 287.998679721928 | -26.9986797219279 |
| 80 | 240 | 261.001370953468 | -21.001370953468 |
| 81 | 248 | 240.001066418900 | 7.9989335810996 |
| 82 | 260 | 247.999593825852 | 12.000406174148 |
| 83 | 266 | 259.999390636926 | 6.00060936307375 |
| 84 | 268 | 265.999695297833 | 2.00030470216694 |
| 85 | 256 | 267.999898427453 | -11.9998984274529 |
| 86 | 261 | 256.000609337291 | 4.99939066270889 |
| 87 | 287 | 260.999746138254 | 26.0002538617458 |
| 88 | 295 | 286.998679745137 | 8.00132025486312 |
| 89 | 304 | 294.99959370466 | 9.00040629533981 |
| 90 | 331 | 303.999542972532 | 27.0004570274677 |
| 91 | 299 | 330.998628956283 | -31.998628956283 |
| 92 | 275 | 299.001624843577 | -24.0016248435772 |
| 93 | 293 | 275.001218767405 | 17.9987812325953 |
| 94 | 309 | 292.999086048214 | 16.0009139517859 |
| 95 | 311 | 308.999187496992 | 2.00081250300752 |
| 96 | 311 | 310.999898401667 | 0.000101598332548747 |
| 97 | 289 | 310.999999994841 | -21.9999999948409 |
| 98 | 298 | 289.001117127823 | 8.99888287217749 |
| 99 | 319 | 297.999543049889 | 21.0004569501105 |
| 100 | 325 | 318.998933627511 | 6.00106637248865 |
| 101 | 331 | 324.999695274627 | 6.00030472537327 |
| 102 | 348 | 330.999695313302 | 17.0003046866979 |
| 103 | 320 | 347.999136749393 | -27.9991367493926 |
| 104 | 305 | 320.001421755213 | -15.0014217552126 |
| 105 | 322 | 305.000761750256 | 16.9992382497444 |
| 106 | 337 | 321.999136803545 | 15.0008631964553 |
| 107 | 346 | 336.999238278107 | 9.00076172189284 |
| 108 | 343 | 345.999542954484 | -2.99954295448424 |
| 109 | 321 | 343.000152312404 | -22.0001523124041 |
| 110 | 331 | 321.001117135557 | 9.99888286444303 |
| 111 | 343 | 330.999492271352 | 12.0005077286475 |
| 112 | 345 | 342.999390631769 | 2.00060936823053 |
| 113 | 347 | 344.999898411982 | 2.00010158801763 |
| 114 | 363 | 346.999898437767 | 16.0001015622333 |
| 115 | 322 | 362.999187538244 | -40.9991875382444 |
| 116 | 304 | 322.002081878778 | -18.0020818787777 |
| 117 | 323 | 304.000914119388 | 18.9990858806121 |
| 118 | 340 | 322.999035254207 | 17.0009647457929 |
| 119 | 352 | 339.999136715876 | 12.0008632841242 |
| 120 | 351 | 351.999390613715 | -0.999390613714866 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 351.000050747594 | 323.490412931058 | 378.509688564129 |
| 122 | 351.000050747594 | 312.096535595816 | 389.903565899372 |
| 123 | 351.000050747594 | 303.353573338111 | 398.646528157076 |
| 124 | 351.000050747594 | 295.982870449981 | 406.017231045206 |
| 125 | 351.000050747594 | 289.489129389938 | 412.510972105249 |
| 126 | 351.000050747594 | 283.618326484739 | 418.381775010448 |
| 127 | 351.000050747594 | 278.219558285650 | 423.780543209537 |
| 128 | 351.000050747594 | 273.194502093461 | 428.805599401727 |
| 129 | 351.000050747594 | 268.474862351939 | 433.525239143249 |
| 130 | 351.000050747594 | 264.010913275688 | 437.989188219499 |
| 131 | 351.000050747594 | 259.76511579133 | 442.234985703857 |
| 132 | 351.000050747594 | 255.708305696717 | 446.291795798471 |
