| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.410159378916772 |
| beta | 0.0621038460609066 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 659 | 663.780715811966 | -4.78071581196593 |
| 14 | 655 | 657.445024279532 | -2.44502427953159 |
| 15 | 655 | 656.755057715721 | -1.75505771572114 |
| 16 | 655 | 656.178381745534 | -1.17838174553435 |
| 17 | 674 | 674.724885200313 | -0.724885200312883 |
| 18 | 674 | 675.022263229662 | -1.02226322966226 |
| 19 | 665 | 656.004962630036 | 8.9950373699644 |
| 20 | 644 | 649.533811019997 | -5.53381101999696 |
| 21 | 638 | 648.045889448822 | -10.0458894488220 |
| 22 | 648 | 643.326402924535 | 4.67359707546484 |
| 23 | 641 | 645.721633268688 | -4.72163326868827 |
| 24 | 637 | 645.143050085044 | -8.14305008504437 |
| 25 | 651 | 634.842190015435 | 16.1578099845648 |
| 26 | 649 | 638.32601449009 | 10.6739855099097 |
| 27 | 652 | 643.611774314797 | 8.38822568520277 |
| 28 | 650 | 647.981853783806 | 2.01814621619417 |
| 29 | 661 | 668.63460303119 | -7.63460303119052 |
| 30 | 666 | 666.274151416039 | -0.274151416038649 |
| 31 | 652 | 653.843024530955 | -1.84302453095540 |
| 32 | 624 | 634.451480795414 | -10.4514807954143 |
| 33 | 613 | 628.25450405094 | -15.2545040509395 |
| 34 | 623 | 629.917510515415 | -6.91751051541473 |
| 35 | 615 | 621.558300715687 | -6.55830071568744 |
| 36 | 613 | 617.702965915233 | -4.70296591523311 |
| 37 | 621 | 622.72901586869 | -1.72901586868954 |
| 38 | 612 | 614.768479643678 | -2.76847964367835 |
| 39 | 611 | 611.976710575761 | -0.976710575761217 |
| 40 | 609 | 607.294052130446 | 1.70594786955371 |
| 41 | 631 | 620.662924378497 | 10.3370756215032 |
| 42 | 632 | 629.010759495528 | 2.98924050447249 |
| 43 | 624 | 616.071425815865 | 7.92857418413473 |
| 44 | 596 | 594.937752048662 | 1.06224795133801 |
| 45 | 584 | 590.251078380621 | -6.25107838062115 |
| 46 | 587 | 600.374618770544 | -13.3746187705436 |
| 47 | 581 | 589.26456046195 | -8.26456046194949 |
| 48 | 574 | 585.445994867391 | -11.4459948673914 |
| 49 | 593 | 588.930978973086 | 4.06902102691436 |
| 50 | 582 | 582.353628527687 | -0.353628527687079 |
| 51 | 571 | 581.288888234256 | -10.2888882342560 |
| 52 | 572 | 573.811586256488 | -1.81158625648811 |
| 53 | 594 | 590.181590894884 | 3.81840910511585 |
| 54 | 588 | 590.708527852677 | -2.70852785267698 |
| 55 | 571 | 577.387330105693 | -6.38733010569263 |
| 56 | 546 | 545.008863701434 | 0.991136298566403 |
| 57 | 535 | 534.654562491243 | 0.345437508756618 |
| 58 | 537 | 542.125238354085 | -5.12523835408547 |
| 59 | 527 | 536.466258996523 | -9.46625899652327 |
| 60 | 515 | 529.3010542324 | -14.3010542324005 |
| 61 | 545 | 539.716458145953 | 5.2835418540468 |
| 62 | 538 | 530.00959587246 | 7.9904041275397 |
| 63 | 520 | 525.700561661114 | -5.70056166111408 |
| 64 | 523 | 524.415880544631 | -1.41588054463057 |
| 65 | 541 | 543.589485776745 | -2.58948577674505 |
| 66 | 529 | 536.795585282875 | -7.79558528287532 |
| 67 | 504 | 518.245669553395 | -14.2456695533951 |
| 68 | 473 | 485.823672713266 | -12.8236727132661 |
| 69 | 455 | 467.897863252303 | -12.8978632523032 |
| 70 | 458 | 464.848133213476 | -6.84813321347644 |
| 71 | 450 | 454.016380624446 | -4.01638062444562 |
| 72 | 442 | 444.467956419912 | -2.46795641991201 |
| 73 | 469 | 469.823245445614 | -0.823245445613793 |
| 74 | 455 | 457.587328167737 | -2.58732816773681 |
| 75 | 439 | 438.973892820147 | 0.0261071798527723 |
| 76 | 443 | 440.820852774447 | 2.17914722555275 |
| 77 | 461 | 459.123841744516 | 1.87615825548397 |
| 78 | 451 | 449.551638492467 | 1.44836150753252 |
| 79 | 425 | 429.684999153194 | -4.6849991531945 |
| 80 | 393 | 400.962993010947 | -7.96299301094672 |
| 81 | 366 | 384.050730431177 | -18.050730431177 |
| 82 | 359 | 381.388277941086 | -22.3882779410861 |
| 83 | 351 | 364.389423828184 | -13.3894238281839 |
| 84 | 343 | 350.207678811148 | -7.20767881114836 |
| 85 | 366 | 372.766108399427 | -6.76610839942651 |
| 86 | 355 | 355.077827879593 | -0.0778278795927463 |
| 87 | 344 | 337.124806507962 | 6.87519349203808 |
| 88 | 351 | 341.315005675159 | 9.6849943248414 |
| 89 | 367 | 360.973137276655 | 6.02686272334518 |
| 90 | 364 | 351.412045456422 | 12.5879545435781 |
| 91 | 353 | 331.341455385795 | 21.6585446142055 |
| 92 | 313 | 311.006788087881 | 1.99321191211931 |
| 93 | 278 | 291.997389437932 | -13.9973894379323 |
| 94 | 274 | 288.311630089255 | -14.3116300892552 |
| 95 | 261 | 280.011749786204 | -19.0117497862039 |
| 96 | 255 | 267.105356053602 | -12.1053560536021 |
| 97 | 274 | 287.725814278332 | -13.7258142783319 |
| 98 | 262 | 270.761084446498 | -8.76108444649827 |
| 99 | 265 | 252.759654156396 | 12.2403458436038 |
| 100 | 274 | 260.356355014748 | 13.6436449852524 |
| 101 | 291 | 279.129885792836 | 11.8701142071636 |
| 102 | 289 | 275.633735019415 | 13.3662649805847 |
| 103 | 277 | 261.050682421303 | 15.9493175786973 |
| 104 | 238 | 226.447585577297 | 11.5524144227035 |
| 105 | 203 | 201.843249330203 | 1.15675066979736 |
| 106 | 198 | 204.489936299126 | -6.48993629912613 |
| 107 | 190 | 197.127298964809 | -7.12729896480883 |
| 108 | 187 | 193.973245567061 | -6.97324556706093 |
| 109 | 201 | 216.677752309969 | -15.6777523099687 |
| 110 | 181 | 202.725972776541 | -21.7259727765409 |
| 111 | 181 | 192.349277495900 | -11.3492774958997 |
| 112 | 196 | 191.052218713309 | 4.94778128669063 |
| 113 | 207 | 204.945476551542 | 2.05452344845781 |
| 114 | 202 | 197.788349890296 | 4.21165010970421 |
| 115 | 186 | 180.223335013539 | 5.7766649864605 |
| 116 | 154 | 137.844534096135 | 16.1554659038653 |
| 117 | 120 | 108.103825818682 | 11.8961741813175 |
| 118 | 107 | 110.026049167775 | -3.02604916777503 |
| 119 | 99 | 103.177436709157 | -4.17743670915672 |
| 120 | 100 | 100.868525698083 | -0.868525698082635 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 120.642532975459 | 103.13276033637 | 138.152305614547 |
| 122 | 109.652859716508 | 90.5537577689906 | 128.751961664026 |
| 123 | 114.960501862893 | 94.224965754181 | 135.696037971606 |
| 124 | 128.872846687314 | 106.455213266732 | 151.290480107895 |
| 125 | 139.845856114932 | 115.701766789424 | 163.989945440441 |
| 126 | 133.881766013898 | 107.968051420728 | 159.795480607068 |
| 127 | 116.168489231190 | 88.4430710211985 | 143.893907441181 |
| 128 | 78.0511039562588 | 48.4729102177818 | 107.629297694736 |
| 129 | 39.2691874286761 | 7.79807914636272 | 70.7402957109895 |
| 130 | 27.3047357634337 | -6.0985576781182 | 60.7080292049856 |
| 131 | 20.8896174586161 | -14.4843203525997 | 56.2635552698318 |
| 132 | 22.2237279204456 | -15.1585527733534 | 59.6060086142446 |
