| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.68474816558974 |
| beta | 0.0484142369247786 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 154 | 144.835967267461 | 9.16403273253883 |
| 14 | 164 | 161.134327150874 | 2.86567284912621 |
| 15 | 167 | 165.974154161445 | 1.0258458385552 |
| 16 | 162 | 161.363438148573 | 0.63656185142682 |
| 17 | 164 | 163.902957486157 | 0.0970425138432347 |
| 18 | 172 | 172.206012609827 | -0.20601260982744 |
| 19 | 169 | 167.935558761424 | 1.06444123857591 |
| 20 | 174 | 172.623373433226 | 1.37662656677364 |
| 21 | 181 | 175.695105878869 | 5.30489412113099 |
| 22 | 181 | 180.363370904279 | 0.63662909572102 |
| 23 | 172 | 183.005512855122 | -11.0055128551225 |
| 24 | 181 | 177.874454727201 | 3.12554527279937 |
| 25 | 183 | 185.769098014831 | -2.76909801483075 |
| 26 | 200 | 193.081577467039 | 6.91842253296088 |
| 27 | 199 | 200.299674096934 | -1.29967409693418 |
| 28 | 190 | 192.590318968473 | -2.59031896847293 |
| 29 | 197 | 192.693589362458 | 4.30641063754163 |
| 30 | 194 | 205.047316652563 | -11.0473166525628 |
| 31 | 190 | 192.661589180187 | -2.66158918018743 |
| 32 | 195 | 194.789331234293 | 0.210668765707368 |
| 33 | 204 | 198.012961847578 | 5.98703815242203 |
| 34 | 197 | 200.989829140711 | -3.98982914071127 |
| 35 | 185 | 195.771548158604 | -10.7715481586036 |
| 36 | 193 | 195.193438722546 | -2.19343872254629 |
| 37 | 192 | 197.012799544763 | -5.0127995447634 |
| 38 | 211 | 205.570387101034 | 5.42961289896593 |
| 39 | 210 | 208.222296083506 | 1.77770391649355 |
| 40 | 197 | 201.007652023794 | -4.00765202379412 |
| 41 | 191 | 201.621407359169 | -10.6214073591685 |
| 42 | 182 | 197.49976665005 | -15.4997666500497 |
| 43 | 170 | 183.481191098833 | -13.4811910988334 |
| 44 | 166 | 177.111132856874 | -11.1111328568743 |
| 45 | 175 | 171.834063544559 | 3.16593645544128 |
| 46 | 163 | 168.481072611454 | -5.48107261145361 |
| 47 | 153 | 158.914898331573 | -5.91489833157252 |
| 48 | 171 | 161.001697733286 | 9.99830226671415 |
| 49 | 165 | 168.459043447272 | -3.45904344727165 |
| 50 | 184 | 177.736799256541 | 6.26320074345924 |
| 51 | 179 | 178.645672062248 | 0.354327937751975 |
| 52 | 163 | 168.737820776871 | -5.73782077687088 |
| 53 | 163 | 164.31916293143 | -1.31916293143036 |
| 54 | 148 | 163.330836659677 | -15.3308366596767 |
| 55 | 132 | 149.048683472034 | -17.0486834720345 |
| 56 | 127 | 138.675541179729 | -11.6755411797294 |
| 57 | 130 | 134.398375136249 | -4.39837513624875 |
| 58 | 118 | 123.375456794781 | -5.3754567947815 |
| 59 | 113 | 113.519716842537 | -0.519716842537136 |
| 60 | 137 | 119.552804263329 | 17.4471957366711 |
| 61 | 133 | 127.289650196454 | 5.71034980354649 |
| 62 | 155 | 141.634688465996 | 13.3653115340036 |
| 63 | 151 | 145.566709839836 | 5.43329016016389 |
| 64 | 132 | 138.481315791507 | -6.48131579150703 |
| 65 | 134 | 134.017262240619 | -0.0172622406192886 |
| 66 | 118 | 129.320401850065 | -11.3204018500655 |
| 67 | 102 | 116.977404334652 | -14.9774043346518 |
| 68 | 98 | 108.210193541373 | -10.2101935413729 |
| 69 | 91 | 105.132757856971 | -14.1327578569713 |
| 70 | 77 | 88.0546121733445 | -11.0546121733445 |
| 71 | 74 | 75.7623205168778 | -1.76232051687779 |
| 72 | 102 | 80.3356348839407 | 21.6643651160593 |
| 73 | 98 | 88.2390067483624 | 9.76099325163764 |
| 74 | 113 | 102.600761992884 | 10.3992380071156 |
| 75 | 114 | 102.988524489102 | 11.011475510898 |
| 76 | 96 | 98.9267959768588 | -2.92679597685881 |
| 77 | 102 | 97.5481584720942 | 4.45184152790577 |
| 78 | 90 | 93.5835723365682 | -3.58357233656815 |
| 79 | 72 | 85.8936956684969 | -13.8936956684969 |
| 80 | 67 | 77.8467294371392 | -10.8467294371392 |
| 81 | 62 | 71.2022309296126 | -9.20223092961255 |
| 82 | 48 | 59.3055385324514 | -11.3055385324514 |
| 83 | 43 | 49.3224024174947 | -6.32240241749469 |
| 84 | 75 | 50.6767454046428 | 24.3232545953572 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 59.0406049575362 | 41.7817822924733 | 76.2994276225991 |
| 86 | 62.0712464415173 | 40.0611690474486 | 84.081323835586 |
| 87 | 56.5214133621168 | 31.5101456949358 | 81.5326810292978 |
| 88 | 46.7362067922406 | 20.5412695869369 | 72.9311439975443 |
| 89 | 46.2586613496034 | 15.7786132538234 | 76.7387094453834 |
| 90 | 40.0674547583405 | 8.33770792935277 | 71.7972015873281 |
| 91 | 34.3963069959911 | 1.70365096176521 | 67.088963030217 |
| 92 | 33.9067363299783 | -3.45966970045161 | 71.2731423604082 |
| 93 | 33.1087477135537 | -9.01704873509713 | 75.2345441622046 |
| 94 | 28.4635178206857 | -14.0332659449993 | 70.9603015863707 |
| 95 | 27.2522466805133 | -19.9297813094741 | 74.4342746705008 |
| 96 | 35.127576383553 | -32.0373669776888 | 102.292519744795 |
