| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.666695305515088 |
| beta | 0.0185297170665319 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 71 | 71 | 0 |
| 4 | 69 | 70 | -1 |
| 5 | 89 | 68.3209510191041 | 20.6790489808959 |
| 6 | 88 | 81.3506844800964 | 6.64931551990357 |
| 7 | 73 | 85.1090039904545 | -12.1090039904545 |
| 8 | 63 | 76.2116492394221 | -13.2116492394221 |
| 9 | 64 | 66.4159536513059 | -2.41595365130593 |
| 10 | 64 | 63.7878517244135 | 0.212148275586472 |
| 11 | 65 | 62.9145138255246 | 2.08548617447537 |
| 12 | 67 | 63.315884928679 | 3.68411507132097 |
| 13 | 69 | 64.8285667742777 | 4.1714332257223 |
| 14 | 71 | 66.7176738776512 | 4.28232612234882 |
| 15 | 70 | 68.7336152214107 | 1.26638477858934 |
| 16 | 72 | 68.7544871360387 | 3.24551286396132 |
| 17 | 88 | 70.1349284665628 | 17.8650715334372 |
| 18 | 83 | 81.4828602251074 | 1.51713977489263 |
| 19 | 76 | 81.9504448776355 | -5.95044487763555 |
| 20 | 70 | 77.3659160343971 | -7.36591603439715 |
| 21 | 75 | 71.7467030802828 | 3.25329691971724 |
| 22 | 71 | 73.2474597250049 | -2.2474597250049 |
| 23 | 75 | 71.0531233500358 | 3.94687664996421 |
| 24 | 81 | 73.0372803899416 | 7.96271961005844 |
| 25 | 87 | 77.7971499322388 | 9.20285006776119 |
| 26 | 90 | 83.4974976512279 | 6.50250234877214 |
| 27 | 80 | 87.477866025888 | -7.47786602588803 |
| 28 | 85 | 82.0452093063659 | 2.95479069363412 |
| 29 | 105 | 83.6044583708469 | 21.3955416291531 |
| 30 | 104 | 97.722383090094 | 6.2776169099061 |
| 31 | 98 | 101.838810011358 | -3.83881001135829 |
| 32 | 94 | 99.1632391829005 | -5.16323918290045 |
| 33 | 107 | 95.5408926625093 | 11.4591073374907 |
| 34 | 112 | 103.142148626109 | 8.8578513738911 |
| 35 | 121 | 109.118586470778 | 11.8814135292222 |
| 36 | 118 | 117.257598136144 | 0.742401863856216 |
| 37 | 120 | 117.979454407761 | 2.02054559223934 |
| 38 | 122 | 119.578404267203 | 2.42159573279731 |
| 39 | 109 | 121.474647980217 | -12.4746479802173 |
| 40 | 112 | 113.285528188319 | -1.28552818831938 |
| 41 | 132 | 112.540261036594 | 19.4597389634056 |
| 42 | 127 | 125.866165404729 | 1.13383459527054 |
| 43 | 116 | 126.988282385836 | -10.9882823858359 |
| 44 | 113 | 119.892895209147 | -6.89289520914699 |
| 45 | 123 | 115.442730847576 | 7.55726915242428 |
| 46 | 125 | 120.71978327966 | 4.28021672034031 |
| 47 | 137 | 123.864916647269 | 13.1350833527311 |
| 48 | 127 | 133.075814585494 | -6.07581458549441 |
| 49 | 123 | 129.403838412512 | -6.40383841251247 |
| 50 | 128 | 125.434059353021 | 2.56594064697863 |
| 51 | 114 | 127.4760886818 | -13.4760886817996 |
| 52 | 120 | 118.656493141169 | 1.34350685883147 |
| 53 | 143 | 119.733649624714 | 23.2663503752856 |
| 54 | 135 | 135.714087904054 | -0.714087904053855 |
| 55 | 119 | 135.698058948203 | -16.6980589482034 |
| 56 | 117 | 124.819309133994 | -7.81930913399405 |
| 57 | 132 | 119.763382933018 | 12.2366170669823 |
| 58 | 139 | 128.229815772994 | 10.7701842270062 |
| 59 | 158 | 135.851636082436 | 22.1483639175637 |
| 60 | 141 | 151.332849074934 | -10.3328490749335 |
| 61 | 139 | 145.031341184667 | -6.03134118466684 |
| 62 | 150 | 141.523119180371 | 8.47688081962903 |
| 63 | 142 | 147.792181311597 | -5.79218131159712 |
| 64 | 149 | 144.476571978162 | 4.52342802183841 |
| 65 | 166 | 148.094211922245 | 17.9057880777547 |
| 66 | 150 | 160.855010785671 | -10.8550107856706 |
| 67 | 139 | 154.307020784486 | -15.3070207844856 |
| 68 | 140 | 144.601798651166 | -4.60179865116598 |
| 69 | 158 | 141.976848731923 | 16.0231512680775 |
| 70 | 169 | 153.300400909665 | 15.6995990903345 |
| 71 | 186 | 164.602190120188 | 21.3978098798116 |
| 72 | 177 | 179.967291311006 | -2.96729131100591 |
| 73 | 175 | 179.051636965889 | -4.05163696588895 |
| 74 | 187 | 177.363001855268 | 9.63699814473156 |
| 75 | 176 | 184.919567858533 | -8.91956785853279 |
| 76 | 185 | 179.994368975079 | 5.00563102492123 |
| 77 | 204 | 184.414872756345 | 19.5851272436547 |
| 78 | 188 | 198.797406527676 | -10.7974065276758 |
| 79 | 171 | 192.790660008809 | -21.7906600088094 |
| 80 | 171 | 179.185568261652 | -8.1855682616521 |
| 81 | 182 | 174.549805460315 | 7.45019453968504 |
| 82 | 185 | 180.430369601644 | 4.56963039835631 |
| 83 | 200 | 184.446926883265 | 15.5530731167351 |
| 84 | 192 | 195.978231480081 | -3.97823148008075 |
| 85 | 185 | 194.43896121132 | -9.43896121131974 |
| 86 | 195 | 189.142442203319 | 5.85755779668142 |
| 87 | 190 | 194.116402976218 | -4.11640297621847 |
| 88 | 195 | 192.38991821833 | 2.61008178167032 |
| 89 | 213 | 195.180193374192 | 17.8198066258078 |
| 90 | 194 | 208.330860788221 | -14.3308607882209 |
| 91 | 171 | 199.869790366035 | -28.8697903660349 |
| 92 | 171 | 181.359035828613 | -10.3590358286127 |
| 93 | 186 | 175.061342276947 | 10.9386577230526 |
| 94 | 182 | 183.097853661088 | -1.09785366108844 |
| 95 | 193 | 183.096116882899 | 9.903883117101 |
| 96 | 185 | 190.551535724279 | -5.551535724279 |
| 97 | 172 | 187.634317509139 | -15.634317509139 |
| 98 | 185 | 177.801814728192 | 7.19818527180817 |
| 99 | 179 | 183.280558408641 | -4.28055840864096 |
| 100 | 182 | 181.053596935095 | 0.946403064905155 |
| 101 | 193 | 182.323117694313 | 10.6768823056866 |
| 102 | 173 | 190.211802021856 | -17.2118020218562 |
| 103 | 155 | 179.294602416338 | -24.2946024163377 |
| 104 | 164 | 163.355205406161 | 0.644794593838554 |
| 105 | 188 | 164.050752888146 | 23.9492471118537 |
| 106 | 186 | 180.579130685925 | 5.42086931407496 |
| 107 | 200 | 184.821693646902 | 15.1783063530976 |
| 108 | 185 | 195.757001945171 | -10.7570019451714 |
| 109 | 173 | 189.268473443797 | -16.2684734437969 |
| 110 | 190 | 178.904497327943 | 11.0955026720569 |
| 111 | 190 | 186.921025866953 | 3.07897413304687 |
| 112 | 193 | 189.631009109423 | 3.36899089057707 |
| 113 | 195 | 192.575964582482 | 2.42403541751816 |
| 114 | 178 | 194.920868424391 | -16.9208684243911 |
| 115 | 163 | 184.159580773583 | -21.1595807735828 |
| 116 | 165 | 170.310964906069 | -5.31096490606942 |
| 117 | 188 | 166.962936899931 | 21.0370631000692 |
| 118 | 182 | 181.440900523568 | 0.559099476431896 |
| 119 | 200 | 182.273208866255 | 17.7267911337449 |
| 120 | 177 | 194.770127666612 | -17.7701276666124 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 183.381890953853 | 161.11375555955 | 205.650026348156 |
| 122 | 183.840914934828 | 156.924021136214 | 210.757808733441 |
| 123 | 184.299938915802 | 153.290849553622 | 215.309028277982 |
| 124 | 184.758962896777 | 150.014833025366 | 219.503092768189 |
| 125 | 185.217986877752 | 146.989158269221 | 223.446815486282 |
| 126 | 185.677010858727 | 144.148932351368 | 227.205089366085 |
| 127 | 186.136034839701 | 141.45136390676 | 230.820705772643 |
| 128 | 186.595058820676 | 138.866553448505 | 234.323564192847 |
| 129 | 187.054082801651 | 136.372686972348 | 237.735478630953 |
| 130 | 187.513106782625 | 133.953307086532 | 241.072906478719 |
| 131 | 187.9721307636 | 131.595660862018 | 244.348600665182 |
| 132 | 188.431154744575 | 129.289647483546 | 247.572662005604 |
