| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.159879826158029 |
| beta | 0.162679015015255 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 563 | 569.183250874616 | -6.18325087461562 |
| 14 | 552 | 557.33439358698 | -5.33439358698047 |
| 15 | 552 | 556.374463218462 | -4.37446321846176 |
| 16 | 555 | 558.303105875734 | -3.30310587573388 |
| 17 | 575 | 577.116827516407 | -2.1168275164066 |
| 18 | 567 | 567.905907590769 | -0.905907590769061 |
| 19 | 548 | 554.850008677484 | -6.8500086774842 |
| 20 | 541 | 542.925582471361 | -1.92558247136083 |
| 21 | 544 | 542.814794204801 | 1.18520579519884 |
| 22 | 546 | 542.016231656842 | 3.98376834315786 |
| 23 | 551 | 542.534784013267 | 8.46521598673348 |
| 24 | 550 | 545.240863310984 | 4.75913668901569 |
| 25 | 546 | 541.952707171691 | 4.04729282830931 |
| 26 | 532 | 532.708499398416 | -0.708499398415938 |
| 27 | 523 | 533.276144824115 | -10.2761448241147 |
| 28 | 528 | 534.876877616726 | -6.87687761672566 |
| 29 | 555 | 553.076719430947 | 1.92328056905274 |
| 30 | 543 | 545.669373155249 | -2.66937315524876 |
| 31 | 525 | 527.816738128259 | -2.81673812825886 |
| 32 | 517 | 520.826727169917 | -3.82672716991749 |
| 33 | 519 | 522.764195053015 | -3.76419505301465 |
| 34 | 521 | 523.181445422551 | -2.18144542255106 |
| 35 | 520 | 525.856627034538 | -5.85662703453795 |
| 36 | 516 | 522.412863367555 | -6.4128633675549 |
| 37 | 509 | 515.867723666687 | -6.86772366668686 |
| 38 | 494 | 500.312420258103 | -6.3124202581027 |
| 39 | 484 | 490.873109716892 | -6.87310971689237 |
| 40 | 482 | 494.018407219926 | -12.0184072199262 |
| 41 | 508 | 515.274577405886 | -7.27457740588579 |
| 42 | 500 | 501.478023083515 | -1.47802308351476 |
| 43 | 480 | 483.202757856554 | -3.2027578565536 |
| 44 | 467 | 474.053853723052 | -7.0538537230521 |
| 45 | 471 | 473.343060449829 | -2.34306044982924 |
| 46 | 482 | 473.152196941302 | 8.84780305869788 |
| 47 | 481 | 472.819125874555 | 8.18087412544503 |
| 48 | 477 | 470.07744308909 | 6.92255691090969 |
| 49 | 471 | 464.796480764317 | 6.20351923568319 |
| 50 | 455 | 452.330958879998 | 2.66904112000202 |
| 51 | 441 | 444.170547781539 | -3.17054778153914 |
| 52 | 434 | 443.216200539286 | -9.2162005392857 |
| 53 | 459 | 466.306458446974 | -7.30645844697403 |
| 54 | 448 | 457.692182392112 | -9.69218239211187 |
| 55 | 432 | 437.813469603639 | -5.81346960363891 |
| 56 | 414 | 425.445136318417 | -11.4451363184170 |
| 57 | 415 | 426.804306564024 | -11.8043065640240 |
| 58 | 423 | 432.465801311299 | -9.46580131129872 |
| 59 | 425 | 427.301500995212 | -2.30150099521234 |
| 60 | 427 | 420.548751117413 | 6.4512488825871 |
| 61 | 415 | 413.558797442319 | 1.44120255768121 |
| 62 | 399 | 397.456166950320 | 1.54383304968047 |
| 63 | 386 | 384.017264008512 | 1.98273599148757 |
| 64 | 377 | 377.73218555922 | -0.732185559219772 |
| 65 | 397 | 398.680810987198 | -1.68081098719796 |
| 66 | 379 | 388.62806665606 | -9.62806665606001 |
| 67 | 361 | 372.49138231528 | -11.4913823152800 |
| 68 | 350 | 355.035453869911 | -5.03545386991073 |
| 69 | 348 | 355.036203170460 | -7.03620317045954 |
| 70 | 363 | 360.381598749655 | 2.61840125034513 |
| 71 | 367 | 361.451639155931 | 5.54836084406901 |
| 72 | 365 | 361.962947285333 | 3.03705271466686 |
| 73 | 354 | 350.814530402518 | 3.18546959748193 |
| 74 | 327 | 336.391564304689 | -9.39156430468944 |
| 75 | 312 | 322.255834734169 | -10.2558347341690 |
| 76 | 307 | 311.454649951764 | -4.45464995176371 |
| 77 | 335 | 325.411006123239 | 9.58899387676075 |
| 78 | 317 | 311.659229817382 | 5.34077018261831 |
| 79 | 298 | 297.831046346352 | 0.168953653647634 |
| 80 | 286 | 288.385916173362 | -2.38591617336215 |
| 81 | 288 | 286.23797279025 | 1.76202720975016 |
| 82 | 303 | 297.640003790733 | 5.35999620926719 |
| 83 | 310 | 300.222520976197 | 9.77747902380327 |
| 84 | 301 | 299.042643518259 | 1.95735648174099 |
| 85 | 293 | 289.202700563375 | 3.79729943662483 |
| 86 | 264 | 268.258173423532 | -4.25817342353236 |
| 87 | 255 | 256.057995209247 | -1.05799520924688 |
| 88 | 251 | 252.00795861768 | -1.00795861767980 |
| 89 | 279 | 273.208923197524 | 5.7910768024758 |
| 90 | 253 | 258.322202851802 | -5.32220285180227 |
| 91 | 233 | 241.385436755265 | -8.3854367552646 |
| 92 | 226 | 229.815310740906 | -3.81531074090634 |
| 93 | 232 | 229.619583720847 | 2.38041627915322 |
| 94 | 245 | 240.268568394566 | 4.73143160543427 |
| 95 | 250 | 244.255897297418 | 5.7441027025823 |
| 96 | 242 | 236.679648494476 | 5.32035150552414 |
| 97 | 230 | 229.705815731806 | 0.294184268194044 |
| 98 | 196 | 206.5070530395 | -10.5070530394999 |
| 99 | 188 | 196.735807264228 | -8.73580726422759 |
| 100 | 181 | 190.901480569547 | -9.90148056954718 |
| 101 | 212 | 207.705997722744 | 4.29400227725611 |
| 102 | 186 | 187.684545379428 | -1.6845453794281 |
| 103 | 166 | 171.783155564777 | -5.78315556477665 |
| 104 | 155 | 164.367775272895 | -9.36777527289519 |
| 105 | 157 | 164.786971595525 | -7.78697159552459 |
| 106 | 173 | 169.517173695762 | 3.48282630423765 |
| 107 | 182 | 170.085871714437 | 11.9141282855631 |
| 108 | 182 | 163.288849350816 | 18.7111506491844 |
| 109 | 168 | 155.849734090144 | 12.1502659098561 |
| 110 | 131 | 133.946072823694 | -2.94607282369441 |
| 111 | 114 | 127.413737722008 | -13.4137377220083 |
| 112 | 106 | 119.818643675952 | -13.8186436759520 |
| 113 | 134 | 134.805710996569 | -0.805710996569218 |
| 114 | 103 | 115.910168634481 | -12.910168634481 |
| 115 | 83 | 99.5139545307705 | -16.5139545307705 |
| 116 | 74 | 88.240643099221 | -14.2406430992211 |
| 117 | 83 | 84.105161574591 | -1.10516157459108 |
| 118 | 96 | 87.9944675186025 | 8.00553248139747 |
| 119 | 95 | 88.3941000829922 | 6.60589991700779 |
| 120 | 100 | 83.1005090500912 | 16.8994909499088 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 73.795979792655 | 60.105527340696 | 87.486432244614 |
| 122 | 53.8812062763403 | 40.0364779553761 | 67.7259345973045 |
| 123 | 44.0544301697393 | 29.9997043929106 | 58.109155946568 |
| 124 | 38.1575530010276 | 23.792232615322 | 52.5228733867332 |
| 125 | 43.53670743324 | 28.0145587275830 | 59.058856138897 |
| 126 | 29.9874325851658 | 14.5937678441178 | 45.3810973262138 |
| 127 | 21.1666807118270 | 5.70590452947709 | 36.6274568941770 |
| 128 | 15.7140742154541 | -0.207559864033360 | 31.6357082949415 |
| 129 | 13.0351101467714 | -4.69165060357955 | 30.7618708971223 |
| 130 | 8.66861068109625 | -12.0756770309744 | 29.4128983931669 |
| 131 | 1.24913105866199 | -21.6078337307883 | 24.1060958481123 |
| 132 | -7.5657434885315 | -30.0846625116774 | 14.9531755346144 |
