| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.394255067360942 |
| beta | 0.0506505428827482 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 353 | 354.266826923077 | -1.26682692307702 |
| 14 | 351 | 351.77310789547 | -0.773107895469991 |
| 15 | 348 | 348.958601724499 | -0.958601724499317 |
| 16 | 351 | 352.385154463424 | -1.38515446342416 |
| 17 | 370 | 371.574209484372 | -1.57420948437181 |
| 18 | 370 | 371.532292849008 | -1.53229284900789 |
| 19 | 351 | 348.517970012983 | 2.48202998701692 |
| 20 | 335 | 339.052545199361 | -4.05254519936085 |
| 21 | 330 | 338.054904785334 | -8.05490478533432 |
| 22 | 328 | 334.193463551106 | -6.19346355110633 |
| 23 | 332 | 331.775559571457 | 0.224440428542948 |
| 24 | 334 | 332.892428660877 | 1.1075713391233 |
| 25 | 343 | 334.737219948103 | 8.26278005189664 |
| 26 | 334 | 336.051098365042 | -2.05109836504221 |
| 27 | 336 | 332.346289344308 | 3.65371065569212 |
| 28 | 343 | 337.150905108636 | 5.84909489136436 |
| 29 | 365 | 359.040060545065 | 5.95993945493524 |
| 30 | 364 | 362.106842343575 | 1.89315765642471 |
| 31 | 351 | 343.056011309991 | 7.94398869000895 |
| 32 | 326 | 332.07611158047 | -6.07611158047024 |
| 33 | 320 | 328.106257753623 | -8.10625775362303 |
| 34 | 312 | 325.601100391939 | -13.6011003919389 |
| 35 | 315 | 324.251357482428 | -9.25135748242838 |
| 36 | 316 | 322.079119501867 | -6.07911950186696 |
| 37 | 319 | 325.193062421669 | -6.19306242166863 |
| 38 | 311 | 314.039709508571 | -3.03970950857058 |
| 39 | 315 | 312.860690289423 | 2.13930971057744 |
| 40 | 322 | 317.82774285604 | 4.17225714396022 |
| 41 | 336 | 338.519109055059 | -2.51910905505946 |
| 42 | 339 | 335.006399457485 | 3.99360054251525 |
| 43 | 317 | 319.717732058076 | -2.71773205807608 |
| 44 | 295 | 295.097676960794 | -0.0976769607942742 |
| 45 | 291 | 291.430372033698 | -0.430372033697552 |
| 46 | 283 | 287.951551494658 | -4.95155149465756 |
| 47 | 285 | 292.148049717865 | -7.14804971786498 |
| 48 | 289 | 292.269897930646 | -3.2698979306461 |
| 49 | 296 | 296.02174771171 | -0.0217477117101339 |
| 50 | 283 | 288.934208233543 | -5.93420823354262 |
| 51 | 285 | 289.415995742938 | -4.41599574293753 |
| 52 | 289 | 292.563941969522 | -3.56394196952164 |
| 53 | 306 | 305.531433781322 | 0.468566218678347 |
| 54 | 306 | 306.580755203655 | -0.580755203655372 |
| 55 | 283 | 284.771006847854 | -1.77100684785427 |
| 56 | 258 | 261.47793112752 | -3.47793112752038 |
| 57 | 255 | 255.575557494987 | -0.575557494987322 |
| 58 | 248 | 248.597058045054 | -0.5970580450537 |
| 59 | 244 | 252.5630183444 | -8.56301834440029 |
| 60 | 249 | 253.831121596759 | -4.83112159675903 |
| 61 | 258 | 258.258767929918 | -0.258767929918179 |
| 62 | 252 | 246.81537227529 | 5.18462772470986 |
| 63 | 246 | 252.141534601518 | -6.14153460151755 |
| 64 | 249 | 254.631915831188 | -5.63191583118808 |
| 65 | 267 | 268.692084203824 | -1.69208420382387 |
| 66 | 284 | 267.676104916 | 16.3238950839999 |
| 67 | 261 | 251.569852401724 | 9.43014759827642 |
| 68 | 235 | 231.642347020154 | 3.35765297984597 |
| 69 | 229 | 230.312955724817 | -1.3129557248169 |
| 70 | 218 | 223.135904703611 | -5.13590470361112 |
| 71 | 218 | 220.501619602301 | -2.50161960230079 |
| 72 | 229 | 226.555637032406 | 2.44436296759437 |
| 73 | 237 | 236.902245398732 | 0.0977546012675816 |
| 74 | 231 | 229.184724686601 | 1.8152753133995 |
| 75 | 229 | 226.54245872537 | 2.45754127462953 |
| 76 | 233 | 233.124206542766 | -0.124206542765933 |
| 77 | 245 | 252.244773348025 | -7.24477334802484 |
| 78 | 256 | 260.344246535748 | -4.34424653574797 |
| 79 | 224 | 231.892435056846 | -7.89243505684581 |
| 80 | 194 | 201.089925355788 | -7.08992535578821 |
| 81 | 192 | 192.236590192334 | -0.236590192333523 |
| 82 | 178 | 182.613928346868 | -4.61392834686816 |
| 83 | 170 | 181.237321969951 | -11.2373219699507 |
| 84 | 187 | 186.124985125035 | 0.87501487496462 |
| 85 | 192 | 193.681822020319 | -1.68182202031889 |
| 86 | 182 | 185.517934988619 | -3.51793498861932 |
| 87 | 178 | 180.270434384907 | -2.27043438490685 |
| 88 | 186 | 182.438220326909 | 3.56177967309071 |
| 89 | 204 | 197.786312078968 | 6.21368792103152 |
| 90 | 224 | 212.305139853741 | 11.6948601462593 |
| 91 | 194 | 187.704127519372 | 6.2958724806279 |
| 92 | 173 | 162.941473044835 | 10.0585269551654 |
| 93 | 178 | 165.302743490247 | 12.6972565097533 |
| 94 | 168 | 158.688413183844 | 9.31158681615554 |
| 95 | 152 | 159.628653803024 | -7.62865380302372 |
| 96 | 163 | 174.18683087324 | -11.1868308732401 |
| 97 | 172 | 176.109358694816 | -4.10935869481574 |
| 98 | 170 | 166.497636582896 | 3.50236341710428 |
| 99 | 156 | 165.535231026364 | -9.53523102636419 |
| 100 | 155 | 168.988235429744 | -13.9882354297436 |
| 101 | 178 | 179.289631672999 | -1.28963167299938 |
| 102 | 194 | 194.286701332168 | -0.286701332168064 |
| 103 | 164 | 161.568497010998 | 2.43150298900227 |
| 104 | 135 | 137.361344428722 | -2.36134442872228 |
| 105 | 139 | 135.976239658699 | 3.02376034130072 |
| 106 | 135 | 122.855884864829 | 12.1441151351708 |
| 107 | 109 | 114.066615289534 | -5.06661528953421 |
| 108 | 121 | 126.94591931635 | -5.94591931634969 |
| 109 | 131 | 134.792880989432 | -3.79288098943215 |
| 110 | 135 | 129.494048736256 | 5.50595126374353 |
| 111 | 119 | 121.041476007907 | -2.04147600790745 |
| 112 | 121 | 124.518555924663 | -3.51855592466282 |
| 113 | 151 | 146.615872191361 | 4.38412780863933 |
| 114 | 169 | 164.546751822768 | 4.45324817723156 |
| 115 | 135 | 135.527869839099 | -0.527869839098742 |
| 116 | 105 | 107.375664811775 | -2.37566481177504 |
| 117 | 112 | 109.37156644211 | 2.62843355789015 |
| 118 | 105 | 101.736718745918 | 3.26328125408168 |
| 119 | 82 | 78.9602372111284 | 3.03976278887157 |
| 120 | 81 | 94.604180611327 | -13.6041806113271 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 100.684389108843 | 89.421329585523 | 111.947448632163 |
| 122 | 102.537743938277 | 90.3466498747216 | 114.728838001833 |
| 123 | 87.256760590346 | 74.1213780582324 | 100.39214312246 |
| 124 | 90.5988901949589 | 76.5026430904347 | 104.695137299483 |
| 125 | 118.89560955574 | 103.821735727905 | 133.969483383574 |
| 126 | 135.077530190373 | 119.009178790416 | 151.145881590329 |
| 127 | 101.134353892736 | 84.054655732427 | 118.214052053044 |
| 128 | 71.9302212824343 | 53.8223400427014 | 90.0381025221672 |
| 129 | 77.800637736942 | 58.6478073675676 | 96.9534681063165 |
| 130 | 69.3682744675659 | 49.153826492046 | 89.5827224430859 |
| 131 | 44.9588692614004 | 23.6662526163363 | 66.2514859064644 |
| 132 | 49.05072134964 | 26.6635166495334 | 71.4379260497466 |
