| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.807164232749437 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 160 | 160 | 0 |
| 4 | 158 | 159 | -1 |
| 5 | 156 | 157.192835767251 | -1.19283576725056 |
| 6 | 155 | 155.230021400382 | -0.230021400381673 |
| 7 | 156 | 154.044356353227 | 1.95564364677335 |
| 8 | 158 | 154.622881956906 | 3.37711804309421 |
| 9 | 159 | 156.348770851064 | 2.65122914893578 |
| 10 | 159 | 157.488748192908 | 1.51125180709209 |
| 11 | 160 | 157.708576598271 | 2.29142340172939 |
| 12 | 162 | 158.558131610232 | 3.44186838976836 |
| 13 | 168 | 160.336284668284 | 7.66371533171645 |
| 14 | 177 | 165.522161574019 | 11.4778384259814 |
| 15 | 174 | 173.786662220748 | 0.213337779252129 |
| 16 | 169 | 172.958860845654 | -3.95886084565439 |
| 17 | 169 | 168.76340996861 | 0.236590031390023 |
| 18 | 160 | 167.954376979773 | -7.95437697977309 |
| 19 | 168 | 160.533888387895 | 7.46611161210524 |
| 20 | 172 | 165.560266638901 | 6.43973336109866 |
| 21 | 173 | 169.758189076423 | 3.24181092357651 |
| 22 | 175 | 171.374862903271 | 3.62513709672913 |
| 23 | 170 | 173.300943906564 | -3.30094390656376 |
| 24 | 177 | 169.636540050873 | 7.36345994912671 |
| 25 | 187 | 174.580061551091 | 12.4199384489086 |
| 26 | 201 | 183.60499164 | 17.3950083600001 |
| 27 | 188 | 196.645620216569 | -8.64562021656943 |
| 28 | 179 | 188.667184807819 | -9.66718480781915 |
| 29 | 176 | 179.864178999569 | -3.86417899956879 |
| 30 | 170 | 175.745151922175 | -5.74515192217535 |
| 31 | 179 | 170.107870778884 | 8.89212922111628 |
| 32 | 183 | 176.285279439155 | 6.71472056084508 |
| 33 | 174 | 180.705161708776 | -6.7051617087763 |
| 34 | 177 | 174.292995002651 | 2.70700499734903 |
| 35 | 170 | 175.477992614385 | -5.47799261438507 |
| 36 | 166 | 170.056352908788 | -4.05635290878786 |
| 37 | 171 | 165.782209925405 | 5.21779007459486 |
| 38 | 178 | 168.993823447613 | 9.00617655238688 |
| 39 | 165 | 175.263287034526 | -10.2632870345265 |
| 40 | 162 | 165.979128829816 | -3.97912882981564 |
| 41 | 159 | 161.767318360886 | -2.76731836088632 |
| 42 | 149 | 158.533637959348 | -9.53363795934808 |
| 43 | 153 | 149.83842639058 | 3.16157360942003 |
| 44 | 156 | 151.390335527308 | 4.60966447269163 |
| 45 | 149 | 154.111091814641 | -5.11109181464084 |
| 46 | 150 | 148.985601311564 | 1.01439868843568 |
| 47 | 139 | 148.804387650618 | -9.80438765061754 |
| 48 | 131 | 139.890636615029 | -8.89063661502877 |
| 49 | 141 | 131.714432733005 | 9.28556726699497 |
| 50 | 150 | 138.209410511712 | 11.7905894882877 |
| 51 | 128 | 146.726352629690 | -18.7263526296896 |
| 52 | 124 | 130.611110577151 | -6.61111057715078 |
| 53 | 120 | 124.274858580523 | -4.27485858052319 |
| 54 | 113 | 119.824345634263 | -6.82434563426284 |
| 55 | 120 | 113.315977926366 | 6.6840220736339 |
| 56 | 121 | 117.711081475111 | 3.28891852488889 |
| 57 | 115 | 119.365778872828 | -4.36577887282846 |
| 58 | 119 | 114.841878318588 | 4.15812168141183 |
| 59 | 106 | 117.198165415244 | -11.1981654152437 |
| 60 | 98 | 107.159406819647 | -9.15940681964724 |
| 61 | 106 | 98.7662612416267 | 7.2337387583733 |
| 62 | 116 | 103.605076436439 | 12.3949235635611 |
| 63 | 93 | 112.609815404609 | -19.6098154046086 |
| 64 | 94 | 95.7814737991896 | -1.78147379918960 |
| 65 | 90 | 93.3435318669035 | -3.34353186690350 |
| 66 | 93 | 89.644752532881 | 3.35524746711897 |
| 67 | 100 | 91.3529882803626 | 8.6470117196374 |
| 68 | 99 | 97.3325468606191 | 1.66745313938088 |
| 69 | 90 | 97.6784553945131 | -7.67845539451314 |
| 70 | 91 | 90.4806808373002 | 0.519319162699844 |
| 71 | 83 | 89.8998566908129 | -6.89985669081285 |
| 72 | 83 | 83.3305391588918 | -0.330539158891824 |
| 73 | 92 | 82.0637397723113 | 9.93626022768875 |
| 74 | 104 | 89.0839336353924 | 14.9160663646076 |
| 75 | 71 | 100.123648898221 | -29.1236488982206 |
| 76 | 69 | 75.6160811804244 | -6.61608118042437 |
| 77 | 67 | 69.2758170906191 | -2.27581709061914 |
| 78 | 75 | 66.4388589347915 | 8.56114106520852 |
| 79 | 86 | 72.3491057941502 | 13.6508942058498 |
| 80 | 81 | 82.3676193421587 | -1.36761934215869 |
| 81 | 88 | 80.2637259251519 | 7.73627407484813 |
| 82 | 87 | 85.508169653116 | 1.49183034688397 |
| 83 | 77 | 85.712321750451 | -8.71232175045097 |
| 84 | 70 | 77.680047249282 | -7.68004724928198 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 70.4809878038359 | 54.4496506679007 | 86.512324939771 |
| 86 | 69.4809878038359 | 48.878916302151 | 90.0830593055207 |
| 87 | 68.4809878038359 | 44.1522613687127 | 92.809714238959 |
| 88 | 67.4809878038359 | 39.9250717466698 | 95.0369038610019 |
| 89 | 66.4809878038359 | 36.0380889677509 | 96.9238866399208 |
| 90 | 65.4809878038359 | 32.4021173675796 | 98.559858240092 |
| 91 | 64.4809878038359 | 28.9612292301469 | 100.000746377525 |
| 92 | 63.4809878038359 | 25.6776172011016 | 101.28435840657 |
| 93 | 62.4809878038359 | 22.5243061507982 | 102.437669456873 |
| 94 | 61.4809878038359 | 19.481249846121 | 103.480725761551 |
| 95 | 60.4809878038359 | 16.5330689872271 | 104.428906620445 |
| 96 | 59.4809878038359 | 13.6676584322899 | 105.294317175382 |
