| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.702888259538534 |
| beta | 0.015960640491968 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 347 | 347 | 0 |
| 4 | 345 | 346 | -1 |
| 5 | 365 | 344.285893193645 | 20.7141068063551 |
| 6 | 364 | 358.066759304812 | 5.93324069518786 |
| 7 | 349 | 361.524890499142 | -12.5248904991415 |
| 8 | 339 | 351.868506913518 | -12.8685069135184 |
| 9 | 340 | 341.826233437177 | -1.82623343717711 |
| 10 | 340 | 339.524956660657 | 0.475043339343074 |
| 11 | 341 | 338.846549608244 | 2.15345039175622 |
| 12 | 343 | 339.372033751735 | 3.62796624826456 |
| 13 | 341 | 340.974638288475 | 0.0253617115248517 |
| 14 | 343 | 340.045298914128 | 2.95470108587165 |
| 15 | 341 | 341.208105246675 | -0.208105246674506 |
| 16 | 335 | 340.145477502427 | -5.1454775024273 |
| 17 | 355 | 335.554703986386 | 19.4452960136142 |
| 18 | 357 | 348.466644431431 | 8.53335556856916 |
| 19 | 337 | 353.804441897818 | -16.8044418978180 |
| 20 | 325 | 341.14407758436 | -16.1440775843603 |
| 21 | 336 | 328.766762503661 | 7.23323749633943 |
| 22 | 338 | 332.902234146205 | 5.09776585379456 |
| 23 | 337 | 335.593897367519 | 1.40610263248146 |
| 24 | 328 | 335.706508280612 | -7.70650828061179 |
| 25 | 326 | 329.327516145211 | -3.32751614521112 |
| 26 | 327 | 325.989136274737 | 1.01086372526260 |
| 27 | 319 | 325.711493102665 | -6.71149310266492 |
| 28 | 310 | 319.930602780694 | -9.93060278069396 |
| 29 | 320 | 311.775631127658 | 8.22436887234193 |
| 30 | 322 | 316.473841369027 | 5.52615863097333 |
| 31 | 303 | 319.337506779288 | -16.3375067792877 |
| 32 | 292 | 306.650175377529 | -14.6501753775289 |
| 33 | 303 | 294.984495729674 | 8.01550427032595 |
| 34 | 315 | 299.340178510673 | 15.6598214893275 |
| 35 | 311 | 309.244642557612 | 1.75535744238823 |
| 36 | 307 | 309.395514630429 | -2.39551463042892 |
| 37 | 308 | 306.601913263385 | 1.39808673661457 |
| 38 | 312 | 306.490474260114 | 5.50952573988565 |
| 39 | 309 | 309.330726334501 | -0.330726334501094 |
| 40 | 310 | 308.062223524189 | 1.93777647581129 |
| 41 | 309 | 308.409963742089 | 0.590036257911038 |
| 42 | 304 | 307.817012533302 | -3.81701253330203 |
| 43 | 287 | 304.083577136154 | -17.0835771361538 |
| 44 | 275 | 290.833576325356 | -15.8335763253561 |
| 45 | 290 | 278.284556691603 | 11.7154433083973 |
| 46 | 298 | 285.230849769443 | 12.7691502305572 |
| 47 | 294 | 293.061032381532 | 0.938967618467814 |
| 48 | 286 | 292.586452379574 | -6.58645237957404 |
| 49 | 294 | 286.748452588521 | 7.25154741147924 |
| 50 | 292 | 290.718372210223 | 1.28162778977662 |
| 51 | 287 | 290.506483420803 | -3.50648342080348 |
| 52 | 281 | 286.889749827684 | -5.88974982768434 |
| 53 | 280 | 281.531771823637 | -1.53177182363663 |
| 54 | 271 | 279.219781140045 | -8.21978114004548 |
| 55 | 264 | 272.114653228725 | -8.1146532287251 |
| 56 | 259 | 264.992383874875 | -5.99238387487532 |
| 57 | 271 | 259.294606894382 | 11.7053931056179 |
| 58 | 279 | 266.16770707397 | 12.8322929260299 |
| 59 | 279 | 273.976851585956 | 5.02314841404433 |
| 60 | 273 | 276.353392529076 | -3.35339252907619 |
| 61 | 286 | 272.804540996652 | 13.1954590033482 |
| 62 | 286 | 281.035716789809 | 4.96428321019067 |
| 63 | 280 | 283.536987799363 | -3.53698779936263 |
| 64 | 277 | 280.023135361929 | -3.02313536192901 |
| 65 | 269 | 276.836548584312 | -7.83654858431225 |
| 66 | 255 | 270.178755477202 | -15.1787554772017 |
| 67 | 252 | 258.189927767039 | -6.1899277670388 |
| 68 | 245 | 252.449799526919 | -7.44979952691864 |
| 69 | 257 | 245.740546293488 | 11.2594537065116 |
| 70 | 267 | 252.308122211105 | 14.6918777888955 |
| 71 | 261 | 261.453130236783 | -0.453130236782897 |
| 72 | 258 | 259.94780646782 | -1.94780646781976 |
| 73 | 271 | 257.370040766201 | 13.6299592337992 |
| 74 | 262 | 265.894612021863 | -3.89461202186340 |
| 75 | 258 | 262.057676001175 | -4.05767600117491 |
| 76 | 253 | 258.060602995689 | -5.06060299568924 |
| 77 | 236 | 253.301811768958 | -17.3018117689582 |
| 78 | 228 | 239.744717427596 | -11.7447174275957 |
| 79 | 235 | 229.961880793617 | 5.03811920638339 |
| 80 | 226 | 232.032023367599 | -6.03202336759867 |
| 81 | 231 | 226.253422158363 | 4.74657784163674 |
| 82 | 235 | 228.104222899082 | 6.89577710091805 |
| 83 | 227 | 231.543031164801 | -4.54303116480131 |
| 84 | 222 | 226.890669189623 | -4.890669189623 |
| 85 | 233 | 221.939090326960 | 11.0609096730396 |
| 86 | 221 | 228.323776300967 | -7.32377630096673 |
| 87 | 218 | 221.703920221235 | -3.70392022123511 |
| 88 | 220 | 217.586865878759 | 2.41313412124055 |
| 89 | 204 | 217.796489074683 | -13.7964890746828 |
| 90 | 196 | 206.45778187606 | -10.4577818760602 |
| 91 | 208 | 197.348491653813 | 10.6515083461873 |
| 92 | 190 | 203.196168141023 | -13.1961681410228 |
| 93 | 191 | 192.133550978011 | -1.13355097801104 |
| 94 | 194 | 189.536889003473 | 4.46311099652746 |
| 95 | 179 | 190.924124643105 | -11.9241246431048 |
| 96 | 162 | 180.659193394793 | -18.6591933947934 |
| 97 | 179 | 165.450932359077 | 13.5490676409227 |
| 98 | 176 | 173.033480715168 | 2.96651928483172 |
| 99 | 168 | 173.210960111243 | -5.21096011124308 |
| 100 | 170 | 167.582125847232 | 2.41787415276835 |
| 101 | 153 | 167.342634655738 | -14.3426346557384 |
| 102 | 142 | 155.161475080496 | -13.161475080496 |
| 103 | 155 | 143.662886078968 | 11.3371139210320 |
| 104 | 136 | 149.511253605161 | -13.5112536051612 |
| 105 | 136 | 137.742418697375 | -1.74241869737526 |
| 106 | 144 | 134.226212268989 | 9.77378773101117 |
| 107 | 135 | 138.914259828772 | -3.91425982877249 |
| 108 | 114 | 133.937227155638 | -19.9372271556380 |
| 109 | 135 | 117.474172149243 | 17.5258278507569 |
| 110 | 132 | 127.540072993532 | 4.45992700646849 |
| 111 | 123 | 128.472139433995 | -5.4721394339953 |
| 112 | 123 | 122.361683528074 | 0.638316471926402 |
| 113 | 103 | 120.553356322076 | -17.5533563220762 |
| 114 | 97 | 105.761392738122 | -8.76139273812159 |
| 115 | 113 | 97.0509070410085 | 15.9490929589915 |
| 116 | 108 | 105.888057273932 | 2.11194272606754 |
| 117 | 111 | 105.022929991010 | 5.9770700089905 |
| 118 | 121 | 106.941609336597 | 14.0583906634034 |
| 119 | 111 | 114.698268805559 | -3.69826880555915 |
| 120 | 97 | 109.932491603429 | -12.9324916034289 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 98.5310038482057 | 80.0423829634544 | 117.019624732957 |
| 122 | 96.2196126076133 | 73.5008021037576 | 118.938423111469 |
| 123 | 93.9082213670209 | 67.5267966374233 | 120.289646096618 |
| 124 | 91.5968301264285 | 61.9080981776696 | 121.285562075187 |
| 125 | 89.285438885836 | 56.5355672076013 | 122.035310564071 |
| 126 | 86.9740476452437 | 51.3444885158435 | 122.603606774644 |
| 127 | 84.6626564046513 | 46.2928634222252 | 123.032449387077 |
| 128 | 82.3512651640589 | 41.3516709396948 | 123.350859388423 |
| 129 | 80.0398739234665 | 36.4999076252998 | 123.579840221633 |
| 130 | 77.7284826828741 | 31.7218215139909 | 123.735143851757 |
| 131 | 75.4170914422817 | 27.0052603583769 | 123.828922526186 |
| 132 | 73.1057002016893 | 22.3406309261031 | 123.870769477275 |
