| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.208492559269248 |
| beta | 0.141775183847602 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 371 | 374.507612695369 | -3.50761269536900 |
| 14 | 374 | 376.585977222432 | -2.58597722243223 |
| 15 | 369 | 370.900310874623 | -1.90031087462319 |
| 16 | 363 | 364.512486632936 | -1.51248663293580 |
| 17 | 357 | 358.327983093222 | -1.32798309322249 |
| 18 | 366 | 367.275602408463 | -1.27560240846304 |
| 19 | 362 | 362.259368067115 | -0.259368067115133 |
| 20 | 366 | 363.348897311218 | 2.65110268878215 |
| 21 | 361 | 364.141315833245 | -3.14131583324479 |
| 22 | 362 | 362.978837078825 | -0.978837078824654 |
| 23 | 358 | 363.534128010580 | -5.53412801057959 |
| 24 | 363 | 363.689075557080 | -0.689075557079548 |
| 25 | 360 | 355.207661774565 | 4.79233822543478 |
| 26 | 360 | 359.221874425834 | 0.778125574165642 |
| 27 | 348 | 354.678026407921 | -6.67802640792121 |
| 28 | 345 | 347.420129010354 | -2.42012901035366 |
| 29 | 332 | 340.998648946626 | -8.99864894662642 |
| 30 | 333 | 347.223273111413 | -14.2232731114133 |
| 31 | 323 | 339.459966416589 | -16.4599664165887 |
| 32 | 327 | 337.626876307825 | -10.6268763078251 |
| 33 | 332 | 329.446395054116 | 2.55360494588433 |
| 34 | 337 | 329.246157113717 | 7.75384288628317 |
| 35 | 336 | 326.678973067071 | 9.32102693292939 |
| 36 | 337 | 332.181743178418 | 4.81825682158205 |
| 37 | 343 | 328.512353910423 | 14.4876460895769 |
| 38 | 337 | 330.688218038543 | 6.31178196145709 |
| 39 | 326 | 321.687974243531 | 4.31202575646864 |
| 40 | 321 | 320.070617990564 | 0.92938200943621 |
| 41 | 309 | 309.799136350361 | -0.799136350361437 |
| 42 | 302 | 313.364980153577 | -11.3649801535774 |
| 43 | 293 | 304.905156915081 | -11.9051569150807 |
| 44 | 287 | 308.456452468431 | -21.4564524684312 |
| 45 | 292 | 308.030175139126 | -16.0301751391261 |
| 46 | 292 | 307.072034845111 | -15.0720348451113 |
| 47 | 289 | 299.842156329827 | -10.8421563298269 |
| 48 | 302 | 295.547134678271 | 6.45286532172884 |
| 49 | 310 | 297.427836790954 | 12.5721632090459 |
| 50 | 295 | 291.637250416687 | 3.36274958331285 |
| 51 | 276 | 279.99921544962 | -3.99921544962001 |
| 52 | 264 | 272.489107781961 | -8.48910778196102 |
| 53 | 257 | 258.300935615494 | -1.30093561549421 |
| 54 | 243 | 251.664688011571 | -8.66468801157131 |
| 55 | 227 | 242.004060005047 | -15.0040600050474 |
| 56 | 226 | 234.842887633332 | -8.84288763333197 |
| 57 | 226 | 237.202346754043 | -11.2023467540430 |
| 58 | 229 | 234.800738038305 | -5.80073803830547 |
| 59 | 224 | 230.587396995002 | -6.58739699500185 |
| 60 | 240 | 235.978409347671 | 4.02159065232914 |
| 61 | 244 | 238.356046961552 | 5.64395303844844 |
| 62 | 226 | 224.717177026988 | 1.28282297301206 |
| 63 | 208 | 208.508337883012 | -0.508337883012217 |
| 64 | 199 | 198.142749386038 | 0.857250613961867 |
| 65 | 193 | 190.988079945307 | 2.01192005469309 |
| 66 | 180 | 180.152171035643 | -0.152171035642596 |
| 67 | 167 | 168.571679084693 | -1.57167908469299 |
| 68 | 164 | 167.166604134288 | -3.16660413428838 |
| 69 | 166 | 166.528754607842 | -0.528754607841677 |
| 70 | 173 | 168.027157848556 | 4.97284215144413 |
| 71 | 169 | 165.162675168869 | 3.83732483113073 |
| 72 | 191 | 176.167341592844 | 14.8326584071559 |
| 73 | 193 | 180.692380895518 | 12.3076191044825 |
| 74 | 166 | 169.159491556411 | -3.15949155641064 |
| 75 | 143 | 154.659252026973 | -11.6592520269731 |
| 76 | 147 | 144.624333053009 | 2.37566694699055 |
| 77 | 139 | 139.594335045257 | -0.594335045256713 |
| 78 | 129 | 129.203786698198 | -0.203786698197518 |
| 79 | 115 | 119.18633660126 | -4.1863366012599 |
| 80 | 108 | 115.623060155510 | -7.6230601555096 |
| 81 | 106 | 114.199953626781 | -8.19995362678145 |
| 82 | 116 | 114.786471522282 | 1.21352847771753 |
| 83 | 108 | 109.975515644333 | -1.97551564433303 |
| 84 | 135 | 119.308809947941 | 15.6911900520593 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 119.819716647760 | 104.639012598616 | 135.000420696903 |
| 86 | 101.102252568075 | 85.5872789328358 | 116.617226203313 |
| 87 | 86.3669660312759 | 70.5075809733362 | 102.226351089216 |
| 88 | 86.4262315199528 | 69.8606126703296 | 102.991850369576 |
| 89 | 79.6761004659766 | 62.5084533026233 | 96.8437476293298 |
| 90 | 71.8820577906944 | 54.1426827541905 | 89.6214328271982 |
| 91 | 62.5548068606408 | 44.4005017719048 | 80.7091119493768 |
| 92 | 57.6042086956578 | 38.6577929526939 | 76.5506244386217 |
| 93 | 55.4349501341775 | 35.213352063523 | 75.656548204832 |
| 94 | 58.3741924509213 | 35.5225518102470 | 81.2258330915955 |
| 95 | 52.3196010735664 | 28.4317561477341 | 76.2074459993987 |
| 96 | 60.7097872656778 | 34.5949566095994 | 86.8246179217563 |
