| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.84931647663477 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 126 | 122.835202991453 | 3.16479700854697 |
| 14 | 131 | 131.214696490096 | -0.214696490095662 |
| 15 | 122 | 122.515597144328 | -0.515597144327671 |
| 16 | 124 | 124.019271248424 | -0.0192712484235642 |
| 17 | 119 | 118.569483113691 | 0.43051688630861 |
| 18 | 112 | 111.543374119449 | 0.4566258805513 |
| 19 | 109 | 116.914439924205 | -7.91443992420471 |
| 20 | 108 | 111.592488280654 | -3.59248828065422 |
| 21 | 117 | 109.024574712523 | 7.9754252874768 |
| 22 | 122 | 115.448147404759 | 6.55185259524059 |
| 23 | 127 | 121.620989687125 | 5.37901031287457 |
| 24 | 124 | 128.172717694584 | -4.17271769458407 |
| 25 | 129 | 133.505555155625 | -4.50555515562456 |
| 26 | 141 | 134.861258192080 | 6.13874180792021 |
| 27 | 127 | 131.512897905336 | -4.51289790533644 |
| 28 | 133 | 129.696386745775 | 3.30361325422487 |
| 29 | 114 | 127.136554830006 | -13.1365548300059 |
| 30 | 98 | 108.591642482656 | -10.5916424826558 |
| 31 | 93 | 103.317850238475 | -10.3178502384745 |
| 32 | 101 | 96.6058895163651 | 4.39411048363492 |
| 33 | 111 | 102.564219845446 | 8.43578015455383 |
| 34 | 128 | 109.164270562357 | 18.8357294376428 |
| 35 | 126 | 125.593283836469 | 0.406716163530916 |
| 36 | 134 | 126.482672465825 | 7.51732753417475 |
| 37 | 140 | 141.693904830919 | -1.69390483091871 |
| 38 | 158 | 147.041508984895 | 10.9584910151051 |
| 39 | 144 | 146.181614511451 | -2.18161451145050 |
| 40 | 146 | 147.522920191968 | -1.52292019196787 |
| 41 | 138 | 138.386571443670 | -0.386571443669823 |
| 42 | 119 | 131.053906422309 | -12.0539064223089 |
| 43 | 113 | 124.579445301015 | -11.5794453010146 |
| 44 | 120 | 119.012841182667 | 0.987158817332855 |
| 45 | 127 | 122.686604352752 | 4.31339564724793 |
| 46 | 141 | 127.35254698538 | 13.6474530146201 |
| 47 | 144 | 136.598122955795 | 7.40187704420492 |
| 48 | 150 | 144.500068952428 | 5.49993104757183 |
| 49 | 156 | 156.609912294237 | -0.609912294236551 |
| 50 | 174 | 164.784676755256 | 9.21532324474353 |
| 51 | 163 | 160.464283774773 | 2.53571622522702 |
| 52 | 167 | 165.911350556567 | 1.08864944343350 |
| 53 | 160 | 159.164279962659 | 0.835720037340877 |
| 54 | 141 | 151.111652092507 | -10.1116520925071 |
| 55 | 132 | 146.358273048785 | -14.3582730487852 |
| 56 | 144 | 140.325144923815 | 3.67485507618511 |
| 57 | 155 | 146.782821895811 | 8.21717810418858 |
| 58 | 164 | 156.170799941726 | 7.8292000582745 |
| 59 | 162 | 159.53373241842 | 2.46626758157998 |
| 60 | 181 | 162.957192052188 | 18.0428079478118 |
| 61 | 187 | 184.799254687819 | 2.20074531218125 |
| 62 | 209 | 196.841658073055 | 12.1583419269451 |
| 63 | 189 | 194.014312630013 | -5.01431263001331 |
| 64 | 201 | 192.830966384758 | 8.16903361524214 |
| 65 | 193 | 192.059270434799 | 0.94072956520111 |
| 66 | 177 | 182.446240282746 | -5.44624028274643 |
| 67 | 159 | 181.015376551252 | -22.0153765512520 |
| 68 | 158 | 171.196239541506 | -13.1962395415060 |
| 69 | 155 | 164.009471113956 | -9.00947111395593 |
| 70 | 164 | 158.708110242746 | 5.29188975725427 |
| 71 | 163 | 159.107957713291 | 3.89204228670948 |
| 72 | 185 | 166.089479280319 | 18.9105207196812 |
| 73 | 191 | 186.281366854775 | 4.71863314522503 |
| 74 | 217 | 201.962699605096 | 15.0373003949043 |
| 75 | 193 | 198.992864930263 | -5.99286493026256 |
| 76 | 192 | 198.964931155135 | -6.96493115513545 |
| 77 | 184 | 184.250523246669 | -0.250523246669303 |
| 78 | 166 | 172.663331333342 | -6.66333133334157 |
| 79 | 145 | 167.702076286955 | -22.7020762869549 |
| 80 | 146 | 158.628612514845 | -12.6286125148450 |
| 81 | 138 | 152.554816091799 | -14.5548160917989 |
| 82 | 149 | 144.698681807274 | 4.30131819272563 |
| 83 | 145 | 144.046286577744 | 0.953713422256499 |
| 84 | 166 | 150.795274272285 | 15.2047257277148 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 165.701285478111 | 148.107702774827 | 183.294868181396 |
| 86 | 178.929858488613 | 155.847115009698 | 202.012601967528 |
| 87 | 160.019697416131 | 132.522571371952 | 187.516823460311 |
| 88 | 164.935128204815 | 133.640227104706 | 196.230029304923 |
| 89 | 157.147901725991 | 122.468661119518 | 191.827142332464 |
| 90 | 144.807178816675 | 107.045708728532 | 182.568648904818 |
| 91 | 143.088426261005 | 102.477990195951 | 183.698862326059 |
| 92 | 154.814114946899 | 111.541878910730 | 198.086350983068 |
| 93 | 159.175760068053 | 113.396230737292 | 204.955289398813 |
| 94 | 166.522579655722 | 118.366124222187 | 214.679035089257 |
| 95 | 161.712575132212 | 111.291120431875 | 212.134029832549 |
| 96 | 169.798951048951 | 117.209959917021 | 222.387942180881 |
