| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.582467316896955 |
| beta | 0.00891834531619204 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 75 | 71.579117470209 | 3.42088252979096 |
| 14 | 79 | 77.0417429649607 | 1.95825703503931 |
| 15 | 75 | 73.8751102584585 | 1.12488974154145 |
| 16 | 77 | 76.2055124857065 | 0.794487514293508 |
| 17 | 100 | 99.1724884770231 | 0.827511522976863 |
| 18 | 100 | 99.1691129035015 | 0.830887096498472 |
| 19 | 94 | 86.8250668746314 | 7.17493312536855 |
| 20 | 83 | 79.6402467437201 | 3.3597532562799 |
| 21 | 83 | 83.547765386508 | -0.547765386508033 |
| 22 | 83 | 83.8698614938643 | -0.869861493864306 |
| 23 | 84 | 84.9372723263794 | -0.937272326379414 |
| 24 | 88 | 87.0332329349251 | 0.966767065074876 |
| 25 | 89 | 96.6679258409937 | -7.66792584099373 |
| 26 | 98 | 95.4910926668568 | 2.50890733314324 |
| 27 | 94 | 91.0408971193895 | 2.95910288061047 |
| 28 | 84 | 94.4670000951766 | -10.4670000951766 |
| 29 | 111 | 114.002231882253 | -3.00223188225321 |
| 30 | 98 | 111.515075359236 | -13.5150753592364 |
| 31 | 98 | 92.8116759230373 | 5.18832407696266 |
| 32 | 83 | 82.4776995108891 | 0.52230048911089 |
| 33 | 79 | 82.995508253576 | -3.99550825357606 |
| 34 | 78 | 81.0633203144457 | -3.06332031444572 |
| 35 | 80 | 80.6627344700765 | -0.662734470076529 |
| 36 | 94 | 83.466386435808 | 10.5336135641920 |
| 37 | 98 | 94.8970385619155 | 3.10296143808446 |
| 38 | 104 | 104.739779441506 | -0.739779441506158 |
| 39 | 94 | 98.069994250363 | -4.06999425036301 |
| 40 | 90 | 91.3143922810225 | -1.31439228102251 |
| 41 | 115 | 121.363623452776 | -6.36362345277631 |
| 42 | 104 | 111.628450526258 | -7.62845052625785 |
| 43 | 114 | 103.665377149401 | 10.3346228505994 |
| 44 | 99 | 92.4345999625616 | 6.56540003743835 |
| 45 | 96 | 94.1401802610363 | 1.85981973896368 |
| 46 | 98 | 96.0049210741856 | 1.99507892581435 |
| 47 | 104 | 100.000535770001 | 3.99946422999894 |
| 48 | 111 | 111.851768129400 | -0.851768129399588 |
| 49 | 117 | 113.786473135019 | 3.21352686498066 |
| 50 | 125 | 123.102946923099 | 1.89705307690106 |
| 51 | 117 | 114.913541072180 | 2.08645892781986 |
| 52 | 118 | 111.996820121169 | 6.00317987883086 |
| 53 | 151 | 152.048150724256 | -1.04815072425623 |
| 54 | 145 | 142.462568811754 | 2.53743118824551 |
| 55 | 155 | 148.943630074048 | 6.05636992595183 |
| 56 | 133 | 127.007557026211 | 5.9924429737887 |
| 57 | 124 | 124.972449397232 | -0.972449397231827 |
| 58 | 125 | 125.350525044817 | -0.350525044816536 |
| 59 | 131 | 129.655480030022 | 1.34451996997751 |
| 60 | 133 | 139.703546686813 | -6.7035466868129 |
| 61 | 136 | 140.687307443733 | -4.68730744373258 |
| 62 | 141 | 145.939995819250 | -4.93999581924956 |
| 63 | 130 | 132.380154852621 | -2.38015485262147 |
| 64 | 137 | 127.994001089578 | 9.00599891042238 |
| 65 | 177 | 171.037958376327 | 5.96204162367269 |
| 66 | 183 | 165.714584288692 | 17.2854157113084 |
| 67 | 191 | 183.413672571252 | 7.58632742874761 |
| 68 | 166 | 156.742893254485 | 9.25710674551544 |
| 69 | 156 | 151.742566895054 | 4.25743310494568 |
| 70 | 153 | 155.612386256077 | -2.61238625607706 |
| 71 | 164 | 160.407196445408 | 3.59280355459228 |
| 72 | 164 | 169.611598706644 | -5.61159870664358 |
| 73 | 168 | 173.346368825837 | -5.346368825837 |
| 74 | 173 | 179.921105711391 | -6.92110571139114 |
| 75 | 164 | 163.774430456826 | 0.225569543173833 |
| 76 | 165 | 165.823052935499 | -0.823052935498822 |
| 77 | 205 | 209.226785901903 | -4.22678590190284 |
| 78 | 207 | 201.388714160593 | 5.61128583940683 |
| 79 | 215 | 208.430003350338 | 6.5699966496615 |
| 80 | 190 | 178.215724439122 | 11.7842755608785 |
| 81 | 169 | 171.021462214153 | -2.02146221415273 |
| 82 | 175 | 168.109714185753 | 6.89028581424708 |
| 83 | 188 | 182.010331040053 | 5.98966895994653 |
| 84 | 188 | 189.033257888467 | -1.03325788846652 |
| 85 | 196 | 196.448183339317 | -0.448183339317040 |
| 86 | 201 | 206.546299973469 | -5.54629997346905 |
| 87 | 194 | 192.483184874036 | 1.51681512596366 |
| 88 | 197 | 195.010481749747 | 1.98951825025298 |
| 89 | 237 | 246.507635701937 | -9.50763570193737 |
| 90 | 236 | 239.313466768335 | -3.31346676833502 |
| 91 | 244 | 241.981439352066 | 2.01856064793424 |
| 92 | 222 | 206.79960194735 | 15.2003980526502 |
| 93 | 195 | 193.048149520651 | 1.95185047934939 |
| 94 | 199 | 196.295422792557 | 2.70457720744298 |
| 95 | 207 | 208.467525120273 | -1.46752512027308 |
| 96 | 204 | 208.164704095828 | -4.16470409582845 |
| 97 | 212 | 214.661651522177 | -2.66165152217744 |
| 98 | 222 | 221.897401194890 | 0.10259880510975 |
| 99 | 214 | 213.138230107485 | 0.861769892514872 |
| 100 | 217 | 215.551677157162 | 1.44832284283794 |
| 101 | 258 | 266.180957549843 | -8.18095754984313 |
| 102 | 256 | 262.297655250605 | -6.29765525060452 |
| 103 | 251 | 265.966797634245 | -14.9667976342448 |
| 104 | 223 | 224.309114938151 | -1.30911493815077 |
| 105 | 198 | 195.072815610504 | 2.92718438949615 |
| 106 | 206 | 199.080799111661 | 6.91920088833854 |
| 107 | 214 | 212.012744660210 | 1.98725533978958 |
| 108 | 212 | 212.431008420139 | -0.431008420138539 |
| 109 | 227 | 221.979080405085 | 5.02091959491511 |
| 110 | 238 | 235.329919906229 | 2.67008009377139 |
| 111 | 228 | 227.702735963454 | 0.297264036545982 |
| 112 | 235 | 230.059536786222 | 4.94046321377769 |
| 113 | 275 | 281.870930309566 | -6.87093030956606 |
| 114 | 278 | 279.503066021618 | -1.50306602161754 |
| 115 | 278 | 282.328962909445 | -4.32896290944456 |
| 116 | 251 | 249.357458106118 | 1.64254189388222 |
| 117 | 225 | 220.257362897708 | 4.74263710229155 |
| 118 | 232 | 227.35953405341 | 4.6404659465901 |
| 119 | 238 | 237.625245816383 | 0.374754183617227 |
| 120 | 239 | 235.824067154534 | 3.17593284546595 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 251.1088672358 | 240.52074376064 | 261.69699071096 |
| 122 | 261.464424671384 | 249.070684296064 | 273.858165046704 |
| 123 | 250.203866503083 | 236.587899360919 | 263.819833645247 |
| 124 | 254.614317446025 | 239.510934443462 | 269.717700448589 |
| 125 | 302.133271215603 | 283.957250309501 | 320.309292121705 |
| 126 | 306.290578728036 | 286.870341332535 | 325.710816123537 |
| 127 | 308.955498146876 | 288.403364221524 | 329.507632072229 |
| 128 | 277.805810956971 | 257.919400928858 | 297.692220985084 |
| 129 | 245.87418933481 | 226.758238921605 | 264.990139748015 |
| 130 | 250.464546900181 | 230.061061653823 | 270.868032146540 |
| 131 | 256.615329917521 | 234.853633299169 | 278.377026535872 |
| 132 | 255.597555892736 | 234.521485435768 | 276.673626349703 |
