| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.211128878579708 |
| beta | 0.136550211331593 |
| gamma | 0.948390526889117 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 563 | 569.188568376069 | -6.18856837606882 |
| 14 | 552 | 557.092262987191 | -5.09226298719102 |
| 15 | 552 | 555.872277613779 | -3.87227761377858 |
| 16 | 555 | 557.631563142701 | -2.63156314270122 |
| 17 | 575 | 576.326932169056 | -1.32693216905648 |
| 18 | 567 | 567.217824756121 | -0.217824756121104 |
| 19 | 548 | 554.336602126659 | -6.33660212665893 |
| 20 | 541 | 541.939179932109 | -0.939179932109255 |
| 21 | 544 | 542.029233163613 | 1.97076683638738 |
| 22 | 546 | 541.54047679592 | 4.45952320408014 |
| 23 | 551 | 542.49740212071 | 8.50259787928951 |
| 24 | 550 | 545.844731220821 | 4.15526877917864 |
| 25 | 546 | 543.22231574882 | 2.77768425118052 |
| 26 | 532 | 533.881034697877 | -1.88103469787677 |
| 27 | 523 | 534.386132710743 | -11.3861327107431 |
| 28 | 528 | 535.405013300468 | -7.40501330046845 |
| 29 | 555 | 553.84875854299 | 1.15124145700997 |
| 30 | 543 | 545.944217032109 | -2.94421703210912 |
| 31 | 525 | 527.682525999883 | -2.68252599988284 |
| 32 | 517 | 519.973018099372 | -2.97301809937187 |
| 33 | 519 | 521.630443341301 | -2.6304433413012 |
| 34 | 521 | 521.719244208649 | -0.719244208648774 |
| 35 | 520 | 524.145361001102 | -4.14536100110195 |
| 36 | 516 | 520.742935922923 | -4.74293592292281 |
| 37 | 509 | 514.127753015663 | -5.12775301566285 |
| 38 | 494 | 498.32058844229 | -4.32058844229005 |
| 39 | 484 | 489.817620430112 | -5.81762043011224 |
| 40 | 482 | 493.769527579601 | -11.7695275796007 |
| 41 | 508 | 516.346246663387 | -8.34624666338732 |
| 42 | 500 | 501.751671121325 | -1.75167112132533 |
| 43 | 480 | 482.351137516685 | -2.35113751668501 |
| 44 | 467 | 472.917405498617 | -5.9174054986172 |
| 45 | 471 | 472.547743919449 | -1.54774391944875 |
| 46 | 482 | 472.66448489772 | 9.33551510228 |
| 47 | 481 | 473.309523301921 | 7.69047669807918 |
| 48 | 477 | 470.959476427117 | 6.04052357288293 |
| 49 | 471 | 465.64454457022 | 5.35545542977979 |
| 50 | 455 | 452.268257559028 | 2.73174244097163 |
| 51 | 441 | 443.951223454065 | -2.95122345406514 |
| 52 | 434 | 443.954980284937 | -9.9549802849374 |
| 53 | 459 | 469.427907049058 | -10.4279070490578 |
| 54 | 448 | 459.219552722014 | -11.2195527220143 |
| 55 | 432 | 436.990560312967 | -4.99056031296652 |
| 56 | 414 | 423.87432455116 | -9.87432455115953 |
| 57 | 415 | 425.367249342679 | -10.3672493426792 |
| 58 | 423 | 430.938880024783 | -7.93888002478303 |
| 59 | 425 | 425.382576569201 | -0.382576569201262 |
| 60 | 427 | 418.537436188394 | 8.46256381160583 |
| 61 | 415 | 411.734941144982 | 3.26505885501803 |
| 62 | 399 | 394.407707278024 | 4.59229272197604 |
| 63 | 386 | 380.738720164393 | 5.26127983560656 |
| 64 | 377 | 375.980208479714 | 1.01979152028554 |
| 65 | 397 | 402.476552782214 | -5.47655278221436 |
| 66 | 379 | 391.9241925578 | -12.9241925577999 |
| 67 | 361 | 373.14932327104 | -12.1493232710396 |
| 68 | 350 | 353.815206135173 | -3.81520613517296 |
| 69 | 348 | 355.340649761086 | -7.34064976108641 |
| 70 | 363 | 362.577392175318 | 0.422607824681734 |
| 71 | 367 | 363.890112984887 | 3.10988701511332 |
| 72 | 365 | 363.950945414734 | 1.04905458526565 |
| 73 | 354 | 351.032012152796 | 2.9679878472038 |
| 74 | 327 | 333.963796108350 | -6.9637961083497 |
| 75 | 312 | 317.351092009673 | -5.35109200967321 |
| 76 | 307 | 305.868346849003 | 1.13165315099701 |
| 77 | 335 | 326.220889682627 | 8.7791103173734 |
| 78 | 317 | 312.210160100831 | 4.78983989916918 |
| 79 | 298 | 297.369508318557 | 0.63049168144289 |
| 80 | 286 | 286.951802005276 | -0.95180200527642 |
| 81 | 288 | 286.509742762669 | 1.49025723733058 |
| 82 | 303 | 301.739217809734 | 1.26078219026607 |
| 83 | 310 | 305.583705555165 | 4.4162944448347 |
| 84 | 301 | 304.760488556107 | -3.76048855610691 |
| 85 | 293 | 292.505087564014 | 0.494912435986237 |
| 86 | 264 | 267.656193907221 | -3.65619390722094 |
| 87 | 255 | 253.215737255721 | 1.78426274427881 |
| 88 | 251 | 248.562658419613 | 2.43734158038725 |
| 89 | 279 | 275.423087747294 | 3.57691225270594 |
| 90 | 253 | 257.690154454076 | -4.69015445407632 |
| 91 | 233 | 237.823582251376 | -4.82358225137577 |
| 92 | 226 | 225.000748006482 | 0.99925199351847 |
| 93 | 232 | 226.784096906383 | 5.2159030936169 |
| 94 | 245 | 242.722327431076 | 2.27767256892363 |
| 95 | 250 | 249.265495771227 | 0.734504228772607 |
| 96 | 242 | 241.564441117098 | 0.435558882901546 |
| 97 | 230 | 233.516648909001 | -3.51664890900088 |
| 98 | 196 | 204.737453854207 | -8.7374538542073 |
| 99 | 188 | 193.170363987551 | -5.17036398755104 |
| 100 | 181 | 187.212915828660 | -6.21291582865956 |
| 101 | 212 | 212.525567674632 | -0.525567674631645 |
| 102 | 186 | 187.049100769234 | -1.04910076923352 |
| 103 | 166 | 167.264095175631 | -1.26409517563087 |
| 104 | 155 | 159.064449885067 | -4.06444988506726 |
| 105 | 157 | 162.302719948844 | -5.30271994884427 |
| 106 | 173 | 172.887950376011 | 0.112049623989037 |
| 107 | 182 | 176.822970709624 | 5.17702929037648 |
| 108 | 182 | 168.967890821339 | 13.0321091786608 |
| 109 | 168 | 160.117561106162 | 7.88243889383835 |
| 110 | 131 | 129.662530852471 | 1.33746914752939 |
| 111 | 114 | 123.005226209033 | -9.00522620903251 |
| 112 | 106 | 115.461508164519 | -9.46150816451933 |
| 113 | 134 | 144.253040546098 | -10.2530405460978 |
| 114 | 103 | 115.960415475181 | -12.9604154751810 |
| 115 | 83 | 92.7856157490616 | -9.7856157490616 |
| 116 | 74 | 79.7319292067056 | -5.73192920670564 |
| 117 | 83 | 80.6838571107754 | 2.31614288922464 |
| 118 | 96 | 96.1405340141688 | -0.140534014168779 |
| 119 | 95 | 103.016131166620 | -8.01613116662014 |
| 120 | 100 | 97.0765793783133 | 2.92342062168669 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 80.7719619088469 | 69.8170784260467 | 91.726845391647 |
| 122 | 42.0615168895032 | 30.7956555617631 | 53.3273782172433 |
| 123 | 25.6507723667705 | 14.0064616731713 | 37.2950830603697 |
| 124 | 18.193472295747 | 6.1013267303675 | 30.2856178611265 |
| 125 | 47.1897090697291 | 34.5798255641353 | 59.7995925753229 |
| 126 | 18.1311430122568 | 4.93428745826101 | 31.3279985662527 |
| 127 | -0.46355244000037 | -14.3150137301488 | 13.3879088501480 |
| 128 | -8.66776420319101 | -23.2391952974932 | 5.90366689111118 |
| 129 | -0.568530952970889 | -15.9225975588113 | 14.7855356528695 |
| 130 | 12.4102862363036 | -3.78615607388423 | 28.6067285464914 |
| 131 | 13.2765426811373 | -3.8190193944709 | 30.3721047567455 |
| 132 | 17.2982210719631 | -0.750251187227761 | 35.3466933311539 |
