Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 170 | 170 | 0 |
4 | 168 | 169 | -1 |
5 | 166 | 167 | -1 |
6 | 165 | 165 | 0 |
7 | 166 | 164 | 2 |
8 | 168 | 165 | 3 |
9 | 169 | 167 | 2 |
10 | 169 | 168 | 1 |
11 | 170 | 168 | 2 |
12 | 172 | 169 | 3 |
13 | 173 | 171 | 2 |
14 | 172 | 172 | 0 |
15 | 165 | 171 | -6 |
16 | 152 | 164 | -12 |
17 | 148 | 151 | -3 |
18 | 145 | 147 | -2 |
19 | 141 | 144 | -3 |
20 | 149 | 140 | 9 |
21 | 146 | 148 | -2 |
22 | 144 | 145 | -1 |
23 | 149 | 143 | 6 |
24 | 150 | 148 | 2 |
25 | 149 | 149 | 0 |
26 | 156 | 148 | 8 |
27 | 150 | 155 | -5 |
28 | 137 | 149 | -12 |
29 | 130 | 136 | -6 |
30 | 126 | 129 | -3 |
31 | 125 | 125 | 0 |
32 | 123 | 124 | -1 |
33 | 117 | 122 | -5 |
34 | 111 | 116 | -5 |
35 | 114 | 110 | 4 |
36 | 121 | 113 | 8 |
37 | 122 | 120 | 2 |
38 | 131 | 121 | 10 |
39 | 125 | 130 | -5 |
40 | 116 | 124 | -8 |
41 | 106 | 115 | -9 |
42 | 98 | 105 | -7 |
43 | 99 | 97 | 2 |
44 | 96 | 98 | -2 |
45 | 95 | 95 | 0 |
46 | 83 | 94 | -11 |
47 | 85 | 82 | 3 |
48 | 98 | 84 | 14 |
49 | 102 | 97 | 5 |
50 | 110 | 101 | 9 |
51 | 101 | 109 | -8 |
52 | 90 | 100 | -10 |
53 | 88 | 89 | -1 |
54 | 83 | 87 | -4 |
55 | 88 | 82 | 6 |
56 | 85 | 87 | -2 |
57 | 86 | 84 | 2 |
58 | 80 | 85 | -5 |
59 | 79 | 79 | 0 |
60 | 97 | 78 | 19 |
61 | 105 | 96 | 9 |
62 | 116 | 104 | 12 |
63 | 99 | 115 | -16 |
64 | 87 | 98 | -11 |
65 | 82 | 86 | -4 |
66 | 81 | 81 | 0 |
67 | 85 | 80 | 5 |
68 | 84 | 84 | 0 |
69 | 78 | 83 | -5 |
70 | 77 | 77 | 0 |
71 | 79 | 76 | 3 |
72 | 85 | 78 | 7 |
73 | 96 | 84 | 12 |
74 | 108 | 95 | 13 |
75 | 98 | 107 | -9 |
76 | 86 | 97 | -11 |
77 | 80 | 85 | -5 |
78 | 74 | 79 | -5 |
79 | 75 | 73 | 2 |
80 | 82 | 74 | 8 |
81 | 71 | 81 | -10 |
82 | 66 | 70 | -4 |
83 | 71 | 65 | 6 |
84 | 75 | 70 | 5 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 74 | 60.7862995379728 | 87.2137004620272 |
86 | 73 | 54.3130055974654 | 91.6869944025346 |
87 | 72 | 49.1131994437725 | 94.8868005562275 |
88 | 71 | 44.5725990759455 | 97.4274009240545 |
89 | 70 | 40.4532675325867 | 99.5467324674133 |
90 | 69 | 36.6331762540549 | 101.366823745945 |
91 | 68 | 33.0398346785766 | 102.960165321423 |
92 | 67 | 29.6260111949309 | 104.373988805069 |
93 | 66 | 26.3588986139182 | 105.641101386082 |
94 | 65 | 23.2146102207746 | 106.785389779225 |
95 | 64 | 20.1751134753098 | 107.824886524690 |
96 | 63 | 17.2263988875449 | 108.773601112455 |