| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0791399017664453 |
| beta | 0.566472187949833 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 123 | 123.276442307692 | -0.276442307692349 |
| 14 | 125 | 124.964636663971 | 0.0353633360290075 |
| 15 | 120 | 119.429092646185 | 0.570907353815045 |
| 16 | 124 | 122.336525621917 | 1.66347437808288 |
| 17 | 146 | 142.988332054739 | 3.01166794526083 |
| 18 | 149 | 145.340182467729 | 3.65981753227146 |
| 19 | 138 | 134.449065687008 | 3.55093431299221 |
| 20 | 133 | 126.33352224902 | 6.66647775097978 |
| 21 | 135 | 129.805071165521 | 5.19492883447887 |
| 22 | 149 | 132.309720046037 | 16.6902799539635 |
| 23 | 146 | 137.139011036783 | 8.86098896321678 |
| 24 | 141 | 142.495935745696 | -1.49593574569636 |
| 25 | 139 | 143.3782527994 | -4.37825279940037 |
| 26 | 141 | 147.002878135421 | -6.00287813542059 |
| 27 | 138 | 143.185850174811 | -5.1858501748107 |
| 28 | 139 | 148.088937454503 | -9.08893745450308 |
| 29 | 166 | 170.094402311978 | -4.09440231197826 |
| 30 | 179 | 173.12527063388 | 5.87472936612002 |
| 31 | 167 | 163.0530077878 | 3.94699221219969 |
| 32 | 154 | 158.59937570586 | -4.59937570585984 |
| 33 | 151 | 160.080788699166 | -9.08078869916619 |
| 34 | 162 | 171.657813834142 | -9.65781383414182 |
| 35 | 148 | 165.627582953401 | -17.6275829534015 |
| 36 | 143 | 156.598773996173 | -13.5987739961728 |
| 37 | 145 | 150.574333937181 | -5.57433393718148 |
| 38 | 143 | 149.259898986482 | -6.25989898648169 |
| 39 | 148 | 142.815026585618 | 5.18497341438209 |
| 40 | 139 | 142.04971996595 | -3.04971996594961 |
| 41 | 169 | 166.508194962094 | 2.49180503790561 |
| 42 | 186 | 176.911532920674 | 9.08846707932588 |
| 43 | 174 | 163.13356463406 | 10.8664353659399 |
| 44 | 161 | 149.482865765652 | 11.5171342343484 |
| 45 | 151 | 146.960833783843 | 4.03916621615659 |
| 46 | 158 | 158.480836698389 | -0.480836698388572 |
| 47 | 144 | 145.685262734181 | -1.68526273418064 |
| 48 | 135 | 142.190234103142 | -7.1902341031417 |
| 49 | 139 | 144.911787570036 | -5.91178757003632 |
| 50 | 137 | 143.773644487554 | -6.7736444875541 |
| 51 | 149 | 148.638516560676 | 0.361483439323592 |
| 52 | 136 | 140.503515057763 | -4.50351505776274 |
| 53 | 169 | 170.479767868892 | -1.47976786889225 |
| 54 | 185 | 186.995212738657 | -1.99521273865719 |
| 55 | 177 | 173.83226961759 | 3.16773038240993 |
| 56 | 164 | 159.68128785926 | 4.31871214074042 |
| 57 | 145 | 148.890491093191 | -3.89049109319132 |
| 58 | 147 | 154.452240451531 | -7.45224045153097 |
| 59 | 142 | 138.514899586107 | 3.48510041389281 |
| 60 | 126 | 129.110591936456 | -3.1105919364561 |
| 61 | 130 | 132.266018324703 | -2.26601832470334 |
| 62 | 136 | 129.719933309909 | 6.28006669009096 |
| 63 | 139 | 141.870716395263 | -2.87071639526283 |
| 64 | 120 | 128.537421602323 | -8.5374216023232 |
| 65 | 151 | 160.335522998079 | -9.33552299807911 |
| 66 | 166 | 174.759077135043 | -8.75907713504265 |
| 67 | 156 | 164.516428546165 | -8.51642854616486 |
| 68 | 150 | 148.678087249781 | 1.32191275021859 |
| 69 | 141 | 128.133678679823 | 12.8663213201768 |
| 70 | 141 | 130.535987136545 | 10.4640128634553 |
| 71 | 130 | 125.685792605626 | 4.31420739437417 |
| 72 | 110 | 109.908054843376 | 0.0919451566242344 |
| 73 | 110 | 113.872899699601 | -3.87289969960085 |
| 74 | 123 | 118.77559341369 | 4.22440658631007 |
| 75 | 133 | 121.951142846415 | 11.0488571535854 |
| 76 | 108 | 104.739263304073 | 3.26073669592736 |
| 77 | 136 | 137.503112304349 | -1.50311230434946 |
| 78 | 148 | 154.195462198873 | -6.19546219887343 |
| 79 | 146 | 145.61218507426 | 0.387814925740059 |
| 80 | 142 | 141.170484652482 | 0.829515347518281 |
| 81 | 132 | 132.828042550505 | -0.828042550504676 |
| 82 | 128 | 132.930614025063 | -4.93061402506288 |
| 83 | 116 | 121.505053755462 | -5.50505375546159 |
| 84 | 90 | 100.927978890333 | -10.9279788903328 |
| 85 | 94 | 99.7414824027497 | -5.74148240274971 |
| 86 | 112 | 111.240855117183 | 0.759144882817367 |
| 87 | 130 | 119.559250889388 | 10.4407491106124 |
| 88 | 106 | 94.2329371370489 | 11.7670628629511 |
| 89 | 124 | 122.769941575378 | 1.23005842462219 |
| 90 | 139 | 134.966930183316 | 4.03306981668436 |
| 91 | 140 | 133.323299682312 | 6.67670031768796 |
| 92 | 129 | 130.135863923285 | -1.13586392328509 |
| 93 | 113 | 120.373212526736 | -7.3732125267355 |
| 94 | 110 | 116.148191486384 | -6.14819148638428 |
| 95 | 102 | 104.010994923377 | -2.01099492337667 |
| 96 | 78 | 78.7870260431467 | -0.787026043146724 |
| 97 | 79 | 83.7040876445314 | -4.70408764453141 |
| 98 | 94 | 101.843201351779 | -7.84320135177886 |
| 99 | 121 | 118.58203675963 | 2.41796324037026 |
| 100 | 99 | 93.6683094556083 | 5.33169054439168 |
| 101 | 126 | 111.530570438581 | 14.4694295614192 |
| 102 | 137 | 127.48768947702 | 9.51231052298024 |
| 103 | 141 | 129.088923336126 | 11.9110766638744 |
| 104 | 119 | 119.732940866378 | -0.732940866377803 |
| 105 | 96 | 104.887998510694 | -8.88799851069437 |
| 106 | 96 | 102.232808955541 | -6.23280895554109 |
| 107 | 88 | 94.4565400634072 | -6.45654006340723 |
| 108 | 64 | 70.3664040880459 | -6.3664040880459 |
| 109 | 66 | 71.3432707304009 | -5.34327073040092 |
| 110 | 92 | 86.6208822651947 | 5.37911773480531 |
| 111 | 120 | 114.527758892658 | 5.47224110734193 |
| 112 | 101 | 93.3483381687937 | 7.65166183120631 |
| 113 | 135 | 120.722242415195 | 14.2777575848052 |
| 114 | 146 | 133.004248381612 | 12.9957516183878 |
| 115 | 149 | 138.151122996754 | 10.8488770032456 |
| 116 | 134 | 118.081121472517 | 15.9188785274825 |
| 117 | 101 | 98.8042601087432 | 2.19573989125684 |
| 118 | 100 | 101.728109586083 | -1.72810958608258 |
| 119 | 91 | 96.5610802243557 | -5.56108022435569 |
| 120 | 70 | 75.123720550656 | -5.12372055065605 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 79.6957129957192 | 65.8624595430353 | 93.5289664484032 |
| 122 | 108.064169195319 | 94.1250216746646 | 122.003316715974 |
| 123 | 138.184106796005 | 124.050728851806 | 152.317484740205 |
| 124 | 120.886241658021 | 106.447207942657 | 135.325275373385 |
| 125 | 155.720959719386 | 140.845846974394 | 170.596072464377 |
| 126 | 167.017055834475 | 151.561590660107 | 182.472521008843 |
| 127 | 169.900448660009 | 153.712115009281 | 186.088782310737 |
| 128 | 153.896240904136 | 136.819637463057 | 170.972844345215 |
| 129 | 120.264428859434 | 102.145783825656 | 138.383073893213 |
| 130 | 118.844713642671 | 99.5352324810767 | 138.154194804265 |
| 131 | 109.805811454615 | 89.1638188737672 | 130.447804035462 |
| 132 | 88.981602968392 | 66.8736437498751 | 111.089562186909 |
