| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.651858880178058 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 156 | 160.703792735043 | -4.70379273504273 |
| 14 | 152 | 153.644722364827 | -1.64472236482683 |
| 15 | 145 | 145.663067513859 | -0.663067513859033 |
| 16 | 141 | 141.446313094764 | -0.446313094764434 |
| 17 | 140 | 140.537518635241 | -0.537518635241184 |
| 18 | 145 | 145.569271034237 | -0.569271034236692 |
| 19 | 143 | 141.288658683313 | 1.7113413166866 |
| 20 | 141 | 143.78635041225 | -2.7863504122499 |
| 21 | 144 | 142.727181847376 | 1.27281815262432 |
| 22 | 139 | 143.647351690988 | -4.64735169098773 |
| 23 | 141 | 141.750072916546 | -0.75007291654552 |
| 24 | 142 | 143.101603253086 | -1.10160325308632 |
| 25 | 141 | 138.461401747913 | 2.53859825208713 |
| 26 | 132 | 137.188336440680 | -5.18833644068019 |
| 27 | 122 | 127.238499705538 | -5.23849970553798 |
| 28 | 122 | 120.114670307835 | 1.88532969216513 |
| 29 | 127 | 120.694025505379 | 6.30597449462076 |
| 30 | 128 | 130.175715356769 | -2.17571535676947 |
| 31 | 122 | 125.641902946422 | -3.64190294642171 |
| 32 | 123 | 123.084203429563 | -0.0842034295629617 |
| 33 | 128 | 125.199616860621 | 2.80038313937911 |
| 34 | 128 | 125.054488947007 | 2.94551105299306 |
| 35 | 128 | 129.463488174994 | -1.46348817499435 |
| 36 | 129 | 130.227590275046 | -1.22759027504605 |
| 37 | 124 | 126.772566839210 | -2.77256683920956 |
| 38 | 121 | 119.347307706392 | 1.65269229360759 |
| 39 | 109 | 113.839392406047 | -4.83939240604742 |
| 40 | 110 | 109.455822589598 | 0.544177410402057 |
| 41 | 107 | 110.699943994466 | -3.69994399446594 |
| 42 | 107 | 110.706362021562 | -3.7063620215618 |
| 43 | 104 | 104.664343801024 | -0.664343801023676 |
| 44 | 110 | 105.286174148137 | 4.71382585186279 |
| 45 | 114 | 111.533468771982 | 2.46653122801831 |
| 46 | 118 | 111.221241519646 | 6.77875848035424 |
| 47 | 117 | 116.594023194553 | 0.405976805447352 |
| 48 | 122 | 118.658878402339 | 3.34112159766116 |
| 49 | 113 | 117.644140500555 | -4.64414050055491 |
| 50 | 106 | 110.539494126684 | -4.53949412668369 |
| 51 | 102 | 98.734985483237 | 3.26501451676295 |
| 52 | 111 | 101.508587312536 | 9.49141268746362 |
| 53 | 106 | 107.107490307248 | -1.10749030724834 |
| 54 | 110 | 108.801587912667 | 1.19841208733287 |
| 55 | 105 | 107.015841880096 | -2.01584188009632 |
| 56 | 104 | 108.629048208371 | -4.62904820837105 |
| 57 | 106 | 108.003731742752 | -2.00373174275182 |
| 58 | 110 | 106.278787500743 | 3.72121249925684 |
| 59 | 107 | 107.439853327636 | -0.439853327636115 |
| 60 | 111 | 109.975191246851 | 1.02480875314947 |
| 61 | 101 | 104.670546159156 | -3.67054615915649 |
| 62 | 105 | 98.2369776082018 | 6.76302239179823 |
| 63 | 108 | 96.5171851044763 | 11.4828148955237 |
| 64 | 124 | 106.815298317806 | 17.1847016821935 |
| 65 | 122 | 113.739226104046 | 8.26077389595392 |
| 66 | 128 | 122.342889364026 | 5.65711063597391 |
| 67 | 124 | 122.344571598811 | 1.65542840118896 |
| 68 | 121 | 125.441163484024 | -4.441163484024 |
| 69 | 125 | 125.852301958648 | -0.852301958647857 |
| 70 | 134 | 126.87101594564 | 7.12898405436003 |
| 71 | 126 | 128.804829805718 | -2.80482980571782 |
| 72 | 126 | 130.308445903248 | -4.30844590324787 |
| 73 | 111 | 119.892625290399 | -8.8926252903986 |
| 74 | 117 | 113.687352323820 | 3.31264767618043 |
| 75 | 118 | 111.361556269351 | 6.63844373064903 |
| 76 | 128 | 120.486884370988 | 7.51311562901176 |
| 77 | 127 | 117.999516690343 | 9.00048330965656 |
| 78 | 129 | 126.178923857428 | 2.82107614257187 |
| 79 | 124 | 122.938761688808 | 1.06123831119189 |
| 80 | 113 | 123.525551161327 | -10.5255511613273 |
| 81 | 120 | 121.219957768385 | -1.21995776838538 |
| 82 | 127 | 124.777625901139 | 2.22237409886121 |
| 83 | 114 | 120.054653408804 | -6.05465340880444 |
| 84 | 107 | 118.916372539674 | -11.9163725396738 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 101.945316043820 | 92.080500692086 | 111.810131395554 |
| 86 | 105.785937239200 | 94.0103058742817 | 117.561568604119 |
| 87 | 102.458608742814 | 89.0415894702222 | 115.875628015407 |
| 88 | 107.561117602239 | 92.6826997334002 | 122.439535471077 |
| 89 | 100.694072630945 | 84.4854875477726 | 116.902657714116 |
| 90 | 100.855129095751 | 83.417550636656 | 118.292707554845 |
| 91 | 95.163351478615 | 76.5778718066847 | 113.748831150545 |
| 92 | 91.0245254718946 | 71.3580319676019 | 110.691018976187 |
| 93 | 98.8197657766589 | 78.1286595019078 | 119.51087205141 |
| 94 | 104.371091485238 | 82.703770677356 | 126.038412293121 |
| 95 | 95.317871076168 | 72.7164617592613 | 117.919280393075 |
| 96 | 96.0856643356643 | 72.5872683217018 | 119.584060349627 |
