| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.390729284726388 |
| beta | 0.122141405310284 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 688 | 698.392361111112 | -10.3923611111115 |
| 14 | 679 | 684.902081797484 | -5.90208179748402 |
| 15 | 677 | 680.176280501588 | -3.17628050158783 |
| 16 | 673 | 674.613944074414 | -1.61394407441389 |
| 17 | 694 | 695.168367346843 | -1.1683673468433 |
| 18 | 690 | 691.424464403764 | -1.42446440376432 |
| 19 | 673 | 670.762515382625 | 2.23748461737478 |
| 20 | 659 | 659.596512633478 | -0.596512633478483 |
| 21 | 657 | 658.669716063091 | -1.66971606309073 |
| 22 | 654 | 656.368901580986 | -2.36890158098629 |
| 23 | 644 | 654.723507518725 | -10.7235075187252 |
| 24 | 643 | 650.38528651341 | -7.38528651340994 |
| 25 | 638 | 634.875521192174 | 3.12447880782577 |
| 26 | 626 | 627.938899260585 | -1.93889926058478 |
| 27 | 621 | 625.14795665825 | -4.14795665824988 |
| 28 | 615 | 618.837047553824 | -3.83704755382394 |
| 29 | 640 | 637.367423977055 | 2.63257602294527 |
| 30 | 633 | 633.70713348529 | -0.707133485290683 |
| 31 | 620 | 614.345324025832 | 5.65467597416762 |
| 32 | 610 | 601.739668350308 | 8.26033164969238 |
| 33 | 601 | 602.994136681446 | -1.99413668144632 |
| 34 | 595 | 599.49959347137 | -4.49959347136951 |
| 35 | 585 | 591.188798507169 | -6.18879850716928 |
| 36 | 584 | 590.130056430245 | -6.13005643024474 |
| 37 | 580 | 581.047698397987 | -1.04769839798746 |
| 38 | 574 | 568.730462656111 | 5.26953734388906 |
| 39 | 560 | 567.088716376729 | -7.08871637672928 |
| 40 | 550 | 559.3564116933 | -9.35641169329995 |
| 41 | 580 | 578.946773278093 | 1.05322672190709 |
| 42 | 569 | 571.834034522757 | -2.83403452275684 |
| 43 | 551 | 554.615179000695 | -3.61517900069487 |
| 44 | 536 | 538.630604842518 | -2.63060484251844 |
| 45 | 535 | 527.517692225214 | 7.48230777478591 |
| 46 | 526 | 524.787402018121 | 1.21259798187907 |
| 47 | 517 | 516.539984367657 | 0.460015632343129 |
| 48 | 512 | 517.29286799924 | -5.29286799923955 |
| 49 | 510 | 510.852059573827 | -0.852059573827432 |
| 50 | 501 | 501.687412756266 | -0.687412756266042 |
| 51 | 496 | 489.131539088154 | 6.86846091184623 |
| 52 | 491 | 485.080116957271 | 5.91988304272934 |
| 53 | 524 | 517.319756412685 | 6.68024358731498 |
| 54 | 514 | 510.643902818448 | 3.3560971815524 |
| 55 | 495 | 496.269843131521 | -1.2698431315207 |
| 56 | 479 | 482.815520472513 | -3.8155204725125 |
| 57 | 479 | 478.358566834588 | 0.641433165412195 |
| 58 | 467 | 469.766359294742 | -2.76635929474162 |
| 59 | 451 | 459.946790759489 | -8.9467907594888 |
| 60 | 459 | 453.511234230465 | 5.48876576953495 |
| 61 | 461 | 454.495463583324 | 6.50453641667639 |
| 62 | 460 | 449.163339775758 | 10.8366602242417 |
| 63 | 452 | 447.121579930579 | 4.8784200694206 |
| 64 | 449 | 443.027425168988 | 5.97257483101197 |
| 65 | 483 | 477.066208257756 | 5.93379174224356 |
| 66 | 470 | 469.353055170431 | 0.646944829568554 |
| 67 | 442 | 452.25237432666 | -10.2523743266601 |
| 68 | 419 | 434.458996661324 | -15.4589966613245 |
| 69 | 419 | 428.334101003334 | -9.33410100333401 |
| 70 | 406 | 413.457831128752 | -7.45783112875159 |
| 71 | 393 | 397.505653553361 | -4.50565355336096 |
| 72 | 396 | 401.278533359715 | -5.27853335971474 |
| 73 | 390 | 397.838674058958 | -7.8386740589578 |
| 74 | 389 | 388.021286588662 | 0.978713411337651 |
| 75 | 373 | 376.5067066705 | -3.5067066704998 |
| 76 | 371 | 367.41184979845 | 3.58815020155026 |
| 77 | 407 | 397.99052015082 | 9.00947984918042 |
| 78 | 391 | 385.899973499283 | 5.10002650071704 |
| 79 | 357 | 361.753091982011 | -4.75309198201086 |
| 80 | 327 | 341.053137330405 | -14.0531373304053 |
| 81 | 321 | 337.393300057954 | -16.3933000579545 |
| 82 | 317 | 318.74908429431 | -1.74908429430985 |
| 83 | 300 | 304.945735761255 | -4.94573576125543 |
| 84 | 304 | 306.17434607908 | -2.17434607907967 |
| 85 | 296 | 300.634286378242 | -4.63428637824171 |
| 86 | 296 | 295.840771379659 | 0.159228620340798 |
| 87 | 283 | 279.633698772397 | 3.366301227603 |
| 88 | 279 | 276.235563968202 | 2.76443603179825 |
| 89 | 319 | 308.44467943157 | 10.55532056843 |
| 90 | 295 | 293.299233596488 | 1.7007664035122 |
| 91 | 255 | 260.381729032973 | -5.38172903297345 |
| 92 | 227 | 232.300684944992 | -5.30068494499199 |
| 93 | 228 | 229.583381261816 | -1.58338126181627 |
| 94 | 233 | 225.303404918218 | 7.69659508178216 |
| 95 | 210 | 213.349200152569 | -3.34920015256853 |
| 96 | 219 | 217.072410030458 | 1.92758996954242 |
| 97 | 212 | 212.014348766512 | -0.0143487665121427 |
| 98 | 209 | 212.54503141966 | -3.54503141966003 |
| 99 | 201 | 197.266292843594 | 3.7337071564063 |
| 100 | 198 | 194.084271105343 | 3.91572889465706 |
| 101 | 245 | 231.984188406698 | 13.0158115933016 |
| 102 | 216 | 213.01693315193 | 2.98306684806994 |
| 103 | 173 | 176.958125888556 | -3.95812588855557 |
| 104 | 144 | 150.223465408778 | -6.22346540877811 |
| 105 | 143 | 150.10717204787 | -7.10717204786951 |
| 106 | 152 | 149.75601147652 | 2.24398852348037 |
| 107 | 127 | 129.114317441323 | -2.11431744132344 |
| 108 | 141 | 136.766843022859 | 4.23315697714131 |
| 109 | 129 | 131.768316473222 | -2.76831647322248 |
| 110 | 127 | 129.282219346418 | -2.28221934641766 |
| 111 | 113 | 119.202305010908 | -6.20230501090795 |
| 112 | 117 | 112.045388714387 | 4.95461128561318 |
| 113 | 174 | 155.741717394231 | 18.2582826057694 |
| 114 | 143 | 132.806460091939 | 10.1935399080613 |
| 115 | 103 | 95.776313147972 | 7.22368685202804 |
| 116 | 81 | 73.0045354692792 | 7.99546453072082 |
| 117 | 92 | 79.5581913904612 | 12.4418086095388 |
| 118 | 104 | 95.1283518023456 | 8.87164819765435 |
| 119 | 81 | 77.3227636768203 | 3.67723632317968 |
| 120 | 89 | 94.283819984435 | -5.28381998443496 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 84.0250195442005 | 71.7670244199028 | 96.283014668498 |
| 122 | 85.772945679727 | 72.3884639900133 | 99.1574273694406 |
| 123 | 77.1614812301571 | 62.5101756071824 | 91.8127868531318 |
| 124 | 82.4866830495328 | 66.4401220078042 | 98.5332440912614 |
| 125 | 135.377295911256 | 117.818170014486 | 152.936421808027 |
| 126 | 102.54767755106 | 83.3685858841437 | 121.726769217976 |
| 127 | 61.3919889699537 | 40.4941291817852 | 82.2898487581222 |
| 128 | 37.5899993995408 | 14.8819321179643 | 60.2980666811172 |
| 129 | 44.6691156478565 | 20.0656739634916 | 69.2725573322214 |
| 130 | 53.549422460061 | 26.9707830928549 | 80.1280618272672 |
| 131 | 29.0359455833193 | 0.406852669208423 | 57.6650384974302 |
| 132 | 38.8483225783051 | 8.09744499950508 | 69.5992001571051 |
