| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.568079894207184 |
| beta | 0.000575352159398017 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 188 | 188 | 0 |
| 4 | 186 | 187 | -1 |
| 5 | 184 | 185.431593259799 | -1.43159325979897 |
| 6 | 183 | 183.617539155709 | -0.617539155709011 |
| 7 | 184 | 182.265730980750 | 1.73426901924967 |
| 8 | 186 | 182.250504583899 | 3.74949541610104 |
| 9 | 187 | 183.38131329293 | 3.61868670706988 |
| 10 | 187 | 184.438994957627 | 2.56100504237335 |
| 11 | 188 | 184.896665988376 | 3.10333401162416 |
| 12 | 190 | 185.663437514892 | 4.33656248510823 |
| 13 | 190 | 187.132198730233 | 2.86780126976689 |
| 14 | 190 | 187.767523559104 | 2.23247644089611 |
| 15 | 197 | 188.042662802384 | 8.95733719761637 |
| 16 | 187 | 192.140987902678 | -5.14098790267758 |
| 17 | 185 | 188.228657660198 | -3.22865766019768 |
| 18 | 182 | 185.401628505733 | -3.40162850573324 |
| 19 | 182 | 182.475226282986 | -0.47522628298637 |
| 20 | 191 | 181.211098999538 | 9.78890100046155 |
| 21 | 183 | 185.781015520477 | -2.78101552047681 |
| 22 | 192 | 183.209306230226 | 8.7906937697743 |
| 23 | 178 | 187.214125532419 | -9.2141255324185 |
| 24 | 181 | 180.987757390185 | 0.0122426098149049 |
| 25 | 179 | 180.002707487556 | -1.00270748755614 |
| 26 | 175 | 178.440757110062 | -3.44075711006178 |
| 27 | 183 | 175.492675163265 | 7.50732483673465 |
| 28 | 179 | 178.766432189624 | 0.23356781037603 |
| 29 | 178 | 177.908190434663 | 0.0918095653368596 |
| 30 | 175 | 176.969448678446 | -1.9694486784461 |
| 31 | 170 | 174.859103850756 | -4.8591038507565 |
| 32 | 179 | 171.105615839858 | 7.89438416014173 |
| 33 | 169 | 174.599708196800 | -5.59970819680032 |
| 34 | 178 | 170.426247752998 | 7.57375224700206 |
| 35 | 161 | 173.738840775034 | -12.7388407750336 |
| 36 | 168 | 165.508094462964 | 2.49190553703585 |
| 37 | 167 | 165.930443373893 | 1.06955662610659 |
| 38 | 165 | 165.545134046275 | -0.545134046274711 |
| 39 | 181 | 164.242373237433 | 16.7576267625668 |
| 40 | 181 | 172.774440121544 | 8.22555987845578 |
| 41 | 184 | 176.462299844054 | 7.5377001559458 |
| 42 | 181 | 179.76186395527 | 1.23813604472991 |
| 43 | 177 | 179.483177032441 | -2.48317703244112 |
| 44 | 183 | 177.089675353956 | 5.91032464604399 |
| 45 | 162 | 179.466284986945 | -17.4662849869454 |
| 46 | 166 | 168.557403907428 | -2.55740390742821 |
| 47 | 151 | 166.117122537089 | -15.1171225370889 |
| 48 | 162 | 156.536976565400 | 5.46302343459979 |
| 49 | 159 | 158.649783307401 | 0.350216692599275 |
| 50 | 152 | 157.858221803227 | -5.85822180322677 |
| 51 | 164 | 153.537856478825 | 10.4621435211753 |
| 52 | 158 | 158.492182071028 | -0.492182071028481 |
| 53 | 160 | 157.223414671964 | 2.77658532803605 |
| 54 | 161 | 157.812475826939 | 3.18752417306109 |
| 55 | 151 | 158.636024907028 | -7.63602490702755 |
| 56 | 149 | 153.308437566603 | -4.30843756660343 |
| 57 | 131 | 149.869777494934 | -18.8697774949343 |
| 58 | 138 | 138.152945466085 | -0.152945466085100 |
| 59 | 130 | 137.068719406465 | -7.06871940646536 |
| 60 | 147 | 132.053470835814 | 14.946529164186 |
| 61 | 151 | 139.549527557302 | 11.4504724426977 |
| 62 | 140 | 145.063287287351 | -5.0632872873507 |
| 63 | 149 | 141.194257221825 | 7.80574277817519 |
| 64 | 143 | 144.638415670228 | -1.63841567022797 |
| 65 | 145 | 142.717002076788 | 2.28299792321172 |
| 66 | 139 | 143.024010891378 | -4.0240108913776 |
| 67 | 136 | 139.746819573972 | -3.7468195739722 |
| 68 | 133 | 136.625870437866 | -3.62587043786621 |
| 69 | 118 | 133.572444972977 | -15.5724449729770 |
| 70 | 130 | 123.72732091879 | 6.27267908120999 |
| 71 | 121 | 126.294022826277 | -5.29402282627674 |
| 72 | 142 | 122.288183607680 | 19.7118163923197 |
| 73 | 148 | 132.494101615165 | 15.5058983848348 |
| 74 | 131 | 140.315790206682 | -9.31579020668195 |
| 75 | 137 | 134.033731740378 | 2.96626825962232 |
| 76 | 128 | 134.729833261155 | -6.7298332611553 |
| 77 | 130 | 129.915574836747 | 0.0844251632531439 |
| 78 | 119 | 128.972387211203 | -9.97238721120311 |
| 79 | 107 | 122.312867241108 | -15.3128672411078 |
| 80 | 113 | 112.614522991297 | 0.385477008703418 |
| 81 | 93 | 111.834218473762 | -18.8342184737621 |
| 82 | 106 | 100.129435490999 | 5.87056450900097 |
| 83 | 98 | 102.460861781987 | -4.46086178198679 |
| 84 | 118 | 98.9217545037784 | 19.0782454962216 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 108.760976446016 | 93.0027355991867 | 124.519217292846 |
| 86 | 107.762230705102 | 89.6362377274199 | 125.888223682783 |
| 87 | 106.763484964187 | 86.5428672163812 | 126.984102711993 |
| 88 | 105.764739223273 | 83.6448954247714 | 127.884583021774 |
| 89 | 104.765993482358 | 80.8956353538283 | 128.636351610888 |
| 90 | 103.767247741444 | 78.2644448033138 | 129.270050679574 |
| 91 | 102.768502000529 | 75.7299291040873 | 129.807074896971 |
| 92 | 101.769756259615 | 73.2764509061585 | 130.263061613071 |
| 93 | 100.771010518700 | 70.8921703835138 | 130.649850653887 |
| 94 | 99.7722647777857 | 68.567867797423 | 130.976661758148 |
| 95 | 98.7735190368712 | 66.296197529809 | 131.250840543933 |
| 96 | 97.7747732959567 | 64.0711947771293 | 131.478351814784 |
