| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.131066859076249 |
| beta | 0.192073350226661 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 266 | 266 | 0 |
| 4 | 264 | 265 | -1 |
| 5 | 284 | 263.843758690197 | 20.1562413098027 |
| 6 | 283 | 265.967821782414 | 17.0321782175861 |
| 7 | 268 | 268.111199468881 | -0.111199468880557 |
| 8 | 258 | 268.004849102474 | -10.0048491024741 |
| 9 | 259 | 266.349902573036 | -7.34990257303565 |
| 10 | 259 | 264.857901786057 | -5.85790178605691 |
| 11 | 260 | 263.413983396093 | -3.41398339609327 |
| 12 | 262 | 262.204436556555 | -0.204436556554924 |
| 13 | 255 | 261.410408362313 | -6.41040836231332 |
| 14 | 259 | 259.641604426522 | -0.64160442652161 |
| 15 | 258 | 258.612747464200 | -0.612747464199515 |
| 16 | 258 | 257.572247112446 | 0.427752887553822 |
| 17 | 288 | 256.678890317656 | 31.3211096823442 |
| 18 | 289 | 260.623120496677 | 28.3768795033234 |
| 19 | 271 | 264.895832028563 | 6.10416797143716 |
| 20 | 268 | 266.402998292676 | 1.59700170732361 |
| 21 | 274 | 267.359628072009 | 6.64037192799077 |
| 22 | 284 | 269.14444426123 | 14.8555557387699 |
| 23 | 284 | 272.379979245224 | 11.6200207547762 |
| 24 | 279 | 275.483970461366 | 3.51602953863431 |
| 25 | 273 | 277.614311115199 | -4.61431111519943 |
| 26 | 280 | 278.562870808509 | 1.43712919149090 |
| 27 | 276 | 280.340752713723 | -4.34075271372285 |
| 28 | 271 | 281.252069720199 | -10.2520697201994 |
| 29 | 298 | 281.130518749618 | 16.8694812503824 |
| 30 | 297 | 284.988384202545 | 12.0116157974549 |
| 31 | 278 | 288.511930318781 | -10.5119303187805 |
| 32 | 270 | 288.818753918452 | -18.8187539184518 |
| 33 | 280 | 287.563076446760 | -7.56307644676025 |
| 34 | 289 | 287.592248972709 | 1.40775102729083 |
| 35 | 288 | 288.832639037869 | -0.832639037868546 |
| 36 | 293 | 289.75842698365 | 3.24157301634989 |
| 37 | 285 | 291.299813926765 | -6.29981392676501 |
| 38 | 283 | 291.432046896729 | -8.43204689672945 |
| 39 | 275 | 291.072542639377 | -16.0725426393769 |
| 40 | 268 | 289.307005170526 | -21.3070051705262 |
| 41 | 295 | 286.319010986972 | 8.68098901302847 |
| 42 | 290 | 287.479988141218 | 2.52001185878237 |
| 43 | 267 | 287.896905285385 | -20.8969052853852 |
| 44 | 252 | 284.718572537776 | -32.7185725377756 |
| 45 | 268 | 279.167138902158 | -11.1671389021582 |
| 46 | 278 | 276.159257393703 | 1.84074260629654 |
| 47 | 280 | 274.90261774184 | 5.09738225815977 |
| 48 | 278 | 274.201139418782 | 3.79886058121815 |
| 49 | 261 | 273.425102166603 | -12.4251021666029 |
| 50 | 263 | 270.209845953033 | -7.20984595303258 |
| 51 | 259 | 267.496633078963 | -8.49663307896282 |
| 52 | 265 | 264.400866987210 | 0.599133012789537 |
| 53 | 294 | 262.512337232505 | 31.4876627674946 |
| 54 | 285 | 265.464954669064 | 19.5350453309355 |
| 55 | 255 | 267.342764116597 | -12.3427641165966 |
| 56 | 231 | 264.731726898528 | -33.7317268985279 |
| 57 | 246 | 258.468127813007 | -12.4681278130072 |
| 58 | 258 | 254.677603603003 | 3.32239639699739 |
| 59 | 265 | 253.040333308761 | 11.9596666912393 |
| 60 | 260 | 252.836200942801 | 7.16379905719879 |
| 61 | 238 | 252.183833975882 | -14.1838339758823 |
| 62 | 241 | 248.376429569067 | -7.37642956906689 |
| 63 | 239 | 245.275552713591 | -6.27555271359094 |
| 64 | 233 | 242.160980737222 | -9.16098073722236 |
| 65 | 265 | 238.437602114531 | 26.5623978854694 |
| 66 | 255 | 240.065068300251 | 14.9349316997490 |
| 67 | 224 | 240.544537716172 | -16.5445377161721 |
| 68 | 194 | 236.481592300834 | -42.4815923008337 |
| 69 | 210 | 227.949707855236 | -17.9497078552356 |
| 70 | 222 | 222.181266415188 | -0.181266415187537 |
| 71 | 230 | 218.737115502929 | 11.2628844970706 |
| 72 | 225 | 217.076450436345 | 7.92354956365526 |
| 73 | 206 | 215.177580236703 | -9.17758023670271 |
| 74 | 204 | 210.806278126015 | -6.80627812601548 |
| 75 | 207 | 206.574430821583 | 0.425569178417078 |
| 76 | 195 | 203.301152498974 | -8.30115249897415 |
| 77 | 230 | 198.675113221519 | 31.3248867784812 |
| 78 | 221 | 200.031321268509 | 20.9686787314915 |
| 79 | 195 | 200.558048624364 | -5.55804862436398 |
| 80 | 162 | 197.468080322886 | -35.4680803228862 |
| 81 | 182 | 189.565008671361 | -7.56500867136131 |
| 82 | 203 | 185.128660041739 | 17.8713399582611 |
| 83 | 211 | 184.476074900565 | 26.5239250994354 |
| 84 | 206 | 185.625282162222 | 20.3747178377780 |
| 85 | 187 | 186.481454472558 | 0.518545527442285 |
| 86 | 181 | 184.748194743731 | -3.74819474373098 |
| 87 | 189 | 182.361348025178 | 6.63865197482184 |
| 88 | 174 | 181.502997098763 | -7.50299709876276 |
| 89 | 213 | 178.602260815351 | 34.3977391846495 |
| 90 | 201 | 182.059266619793 | 18.9407333802070 |
| 91 | 177 | 183.967193781927 | -6.96719378192682 |
| 92 | 140 | 182.304055029179 | -42.3040550291788 |
| 93 | 165 | 174.944443514279 | -9.94444351427862 |
| 94 | 192 | 171.575758738312 | 20.4242412616883 |
| 95 | 197 | 172.701571145475 | 24.2984288545247 |
| 96 | 196 | 174.946860751833 | 21.0531392481673 |
| 97 | 176 | 177.296801659332 | -1.29680165933232 |
| 98 | 164 | 176.684759742071 | -12.6847597420713 |
| 99 | 177 | 174.26080206851 | 2.73919793148994 |
| 100 | 165 | 173.927371885104 | -8.92737188510375 |
| 101 | 208 | 171.840099356004 | 36.1599006439956 |
| 102 | 195 | 176.572579658645 | 18.4274203413551 |
| 103 | 164 | 179.444819649786 | -15.4448196497861 |
| 104 | 123 | 177.488716684159 | -54.4887166841589 |
| 105 | 147 | 169.043529254827 | -22.0435292548266 |
| 106 | 173 | 164.295896892934 | 8.70410310706595 |
| 107 | 176 | 163.797381143533 | 12.2026188564671 |
| 108 | 170 | 164.064599091970 | 5.93540090802958 |
| 109 | 157 | 163.659812926461 | -6.65981292646097 |
| 110 | 145 | 161.436554511906 | -16.4365545119065 |
| 111 | 148 | 157.518108054075 | -9.51810805407467 |
| 112 | 135 | 154.266827500942 | -19.2668275009417 |
| 113 | 175 | 149.252781110315 | 25.7472188896854 |
| 114 | 168 | 150.786756487701 | 17.2132435122986 |
| 115 | 140 | 151.635544467583 | -11.6355444675829 |
| 116 | 109 | 148.41029397791 | -39.4102939779101 |
| 117 | 129 | 140.552561804427 | -11.5525618044268 |
| 118 | 150 | 136.055225689999 | 13.9447743100006 |
| 119 | 150 | 135.250797368660 | 14.7492026313398 |
| 120 | 152 | 134.923106015648 | 17.0768939843519 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 135.330399283344 | 102.105376737128 | 168.555421829561 |
| 122 | 133.499477693733 | 99.8713665238017 | 167.127588863665 |
| 123 | 131.668556104123 | 97.5045233757499 | 165.832588832495 |
| 124 | 129.837634514512 | 94.9908966482832 | 164.68437238074 |
| 125 | 128.006712924901 | 92.3193049731988 | 163.694120876603 |
| 126 | 126.17579133529 | 89.4815387343311 | 162.870043936249 |
| 127 | 124.344869745679 | 86.4723783395158 | 162.217361151842 |
| 128 | 122.513948156068 | 83.2894330805575 | 161.738463231579 |
| 129 | 120.683026566457 | 79.9328325885497 | 161.433220544365 |
| 130 | 118.852104976846 | 76.4048201780365 | 161.299389775656 |
| 131 | 117.021183387236 | 72.7093021580612 | 161.33306461641 |
| 132 | 115.190261797625 | 68.8514011559819 | 161.529122439267 |
