| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.842738612560252 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 93 | 94 | -1 |
| 3 | 92 | 93.1572613874397 | -1.15726138743975 |
| 4 | 90 | 92.1819925314192 | -2.18199253141921 |
| 5 | 110 | 90.3431431728742 | 19.6568568271258 |
| 6 | 109 | 106.908735422662 | 2.09126457733829 |
| 7 | 94 | 108.671124831064 | -14.6711248310642 |
| 8 | 84 | 96.3072014462349 | -12.3072014462349 |
| 9 | 85 | 85.9354475749354 | -0.93544757493538 |
| 10 | 85 | 85.1471097835115 | -0.147109783511482 |
| 11 | 86 | 85.023134688661 | 0.976865311339026 |
| 12 | 88 | 85.846376805797 | 2.15362319420294 |
| 13 | 93 | 87.6613182284572 | 5.33868177154278 |
| 14 | 94 | 92.1604314975079 | 1.83956850249211 |
| 15 | 90 | 93.7107069050076 | -3.71070690500763 |
| 16 | 91 | 90.5835509162638 | 0.416449083736239 |
| 17 | 104 | 90.9345086392936 | 13.0654913607064 |
| 18 | 103 | 101.945302701033 | 1.05469729896672 |
| 19 | 88 | 102.834136839436 | -14.8341368394355 |
| 20 | 79 | 90.3328369408407 | -11.3328369408407 |
| 21 | 82 | 80.782217660945 | 1.21778233905496 |
| 22 | 88 | 81.8084898597606 | 6.1915101402394 |
| 23 | 93 | 87.0263145249987 | 5.97368547500132 |
| 24 | 89 | 92.0605699340726 | -3.06056993407262 |
| 25 | 94 | 89.4813094741886 | 4.51869052581137 |
| 26 | 96 | 93.2893844585 | 2.71061554149995 |
| 27 | 94 | 95.573724839128 | -1.57372483912798 |
| 28 | 92 | 94.2474861516497 | -2.24748615164967 |
| 29 | 113 | 92.35344279046 | 20.6465572095400 |
| 30 | 122 | 109.753093767374 | 12.2469062326264 |
| 31 | 107 | 120.074034534013 | -13.0740345340127 |
| 32 | 98 | 109.056040810254 | -11.0560408102540 |
| 33 | 103 | 99.738688317411 | 3.26131168258898 |
| 34 | 110 | 102.487121599923 | 7.5128784000774 |
| 35 | 113 | 108.818514319138 | 4.18148568086228 |
| 36 | 110 | 112.342413760268 | -2.34241376026816 |
| 37 | 123 | 110.368371237898 | 12.6316287621023 |
| 38 | 124 | 121.013532535248 | 2.98646746475202 |
| 39 | 118 | 123.530343982949 | -5.53034398294943 |
| 40 | 117 | 118.869709567778 | -1.86970956777768 |
| 41 | 139 | 117.294033120738 | 21.7059668792619 |
| 42 | 146 | 135.586489532846 | 10.4135104671540 |
| 43 | 134 | 144.362356895817 | -10.3623568958170 |
| 44 | 121 | 135.629598622582 | -14.6295986225820 |
| 45 | 123 | 123.300670977074 | -0.300670977073878 |
| 46 | 122 | 123.047283935018 | -1.04728393501750 |
| 47 | 127 | 122.164697324664 | 4.83530267533578 |
| 48 | 122 | 126.239593592586 | -4.23959359258556 |
| 49 | 139 | 122.666724370551 | 16.3332756294493 |
| 50 | 136 | 136.431406413077 | -0.431406413076957 |
| 51 | 127 | 136.067843571071 | -9.06784357107088 |
| 52 | 123 | 128.426021661073 | -5.42602166107321 |
| 53 | 140 | 123.853303694698 | 16.1466963053015 |
| 54 | 146 | 137.46074813646 | 8.53925186353996 |
| 55 | 138 | 144.657105404242 | -6.65710540424226 |
| 56 | 120 | 139.046905632204 | -19.0469056322038 |
| 57 | 122 | 122.995342806154 | -0.995342806154326 |
| 58 | 115 | 122.156528990674 | -7.156528990674 |
| 59 | 115 | 116.125445678326 | -1.12544567832617 |
| 60 | 102 | 115.176989148862 | -13.1769891488617 |
| 61 | 119 | 104.072231595828 | 14.9277684041715 |
| 62 | 114 | 116.652438429381 | -2.65243842938075 |
| 63 | 108 | 114.417126147503 | -6.41712614750293 |
| 64 | 102 | 109.009166161332 | -7.00916616133219 |
| 65 | 121 | 103.102271195327 | 17.8977288046732 |
| 66 | 109 | 118.185378336157 | -9.18537833615675 |
| 67 | 102 | 110.444505341303 | -8.44450534130301 |
| 68 | 95 | 103.327994626216 | -8.32799462621568 |
| 69 | 98 | 96.3096719895094 | 1.69032801049056 |
| 70 | 92 | 97.734176671842 | -5.73417667184198 |
| 71 | 94 | 92.9017645792385 | 1.09823542076150 |
| 72 | 90 | 93.8272899739956 | -3.82728997399558 |
| 73 | 113 | 90.6018849314448 | 22.3981150685552 |
| 74 | 111 | 109.477641348284 | 1.52235865171613 |
| 75 | 103 | 110.760591766250 | -7.76059176625023 |
| 76 | 90 | 104.220441428514 | -14.220441428514 |
| 77 | 108 | 92.2363263490538 | 15.7636736509462 |
| 78 | 99 | 105.520982810505 | -6.5209828105048 |
| 79 | 95 | 100.025498804251 | -5.02549880425073 |
| 80 | 91 | 95.7903169145333 | -4.79031691453326 |
| 81 | 85 | 91.7533318842556 | -6.75333188425559 |
| 82 | 72 | 86.0620383419591 | -14.0620383419591 |
| 83 | 90 | 74.2114156598874 | 15.7885843401126 |
| 84 | 90 | 87.5170653209644 | 2.48293467903558 |
| 85 | 114 | 89.6095302474526 | 24.3904697525474 |
| 86 | 115 | 110.164320886407 | 4.83567911359282 |
| 87 | 104 | 114.239534393383 | -10.2395343933830 |
| 88 | 93 | 105.610283385440 | -12.6102833854404 |
| 89 | 101 | 94.9831106612028 | 6.01688933879723 |
| 90 | 90 | 100.053775634509 | -10.0537756345093 |
| 91 | 79 | 91.5810707052909 | -12.5810707052909 |
| 92 | 75 | 80.9785166345916 | -5.97851663459161 |
| 93 | 71 | 75.9401898207875 | -4.9401898207875 |
| 94 | 61 | 71.7769011054328 | -10.7769011054328 |
| 95 | 84 | 62.6947904201413 | 21.3052095798587 |
| 96 | 87 | 80.6495131817768 | 6.35048681822319 |
| 97 | 107 | 86.0013136320484 | 20.9986863679516 |
| 98 | 99 | 103.697717447364 | -4.6977174473638 |
| 99 | 93 | 99.7387695635723 | -6.73876956357233 |
| 100 | 74 | 94.0597482512041 | -20.0597482512041 |
| 101 | 87 | 77.1546238416764 | 9.84537615832357 |
| 102 | 71 | 85.4517024854758 | -14.4517024854758 |
| 103 | 67 | 73.2726947837324 | -6.27269478373239 |
| 104 | 61 | 67.9864526846758 | -6.98645268467583 |
| 105 | 63 | 62.0986992424743 | 0.901300757525725 |
| 106 | 52 | 62.858260192371 | -10.858260192371 |
| 107 | 80 | 53.7075850630341 | 26.2924149369659 |
| 108 | 84 | 75.8652183478712 | 8.13478165212882 |
| 109 | 102 | 82.7207129508668 | 19.2792870491332 |
| 110 | 93 | 98.9681125698041 | -5.96811256980415 |
| 111 | 87 | 93.938553663124 | -6.938553663124 |
| 112 | 72 | 88.091166575888 | -16.0911665758880 |
| 113 | 83 | 74.5305191812483 | 8.46948081875175 |
| 114 | 72 | 81.6680776955488 | -9.66807769554877 |
| 115 | 66 | 73.5204153122773 | -7.5204153122773 |
| 116 | 64 | 67.1826709461319 | -3.18267094613185 |
| 117 | 64 | 64.5005112487529 | -0.500511248752872 |
| 118 | 47 | 64.078711093408 | -17.0787110934081 |
| 119 | 77 | 49.685821802232 | 27.314178197768 |
| 120 | 79 | 72.7045344398425 | 6.29546556015751 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 78.0099663514305 | 57.0606905589908 | 98.9592421438702 |
| 122 | 78.0099663514305 | 50.6135644974357 | 105.406368205425 |
| 123 | 78.0099663514305 | 45.4177354848047 | 110.602197218056 |
| 124 | 78.0099663514305 | 40.9432131731266 | 115.076719529734 |
| 125 | 78.0099663514305 | 36.9534824603425 | 119.066450242518 |
| 126 | 78.0099663514305 | 33.3185180887367 | 122.701414614124 |
| 127 | 78.0099663514305 | 29.9577424056556 | 126.062190297205 |
| 128 | 78.0099663514305 | 26.8171259882238 | 129.202806714637 |
| 129 | 78.0099663514305 | 23.8583497294807 | 132.161582973380 |
| 130 | 78.0099663514305 | 21.0530680766078 | 134.966864626253 |
| 131 | 78.0099663514305 | 18.3796138503228 | 137.640318852538 |
| 132 | 78.0099663514305 | 15.8209832617849 | 140.198949441076 |
