| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.629181587767191 |
| beta | 0.0412105272936492 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 163 | 158.073450854701 | 4.92654914529911 |
| 14 | 166 | 163.966823121335 | 2.03317687866519 |
| 15 | 170 | 169.092456881372 | 0.907543118627871 |
| 16 | 171 | 170.99172753766 | 0.00827246233981782 |
| 17 | 176 | 176.825408150483 | -0.825408150482559 |
| 18 | 172 | 173.363150342122 | -1.36315034212242 |
| 19 | 169 | 168.443876718768 | 0.556123281231663 |
| 20 | 180 | 171.829927722174 | 8.17007227782608 |
| 21 | 172 | 178.843376272332 | -6.84337627233197 |
| 22 | 170 | 174.899864839295 | -4.89986483929459 |
| 23 | 161 | 172.635460218965 | -11.6354602189646 |
| 24 | 167 | 166.664781593835 | 0.335218406164785 |
| 25 | 158 | 165.353047197435 | -7.35304719743505 |
| 26 | 163 | 161.905237004086 | 1.09476299591421 |
| 27 | 165 | 165.456529433316 | -0.456529433316348 |
| 28 | 169 | 165.562212860582 | 3.43778713941796 |
| 29 | 168 | 172.731588624257 | -4.73158862425717 |
| 30 | 165 | 165.997998077423 | -0.99799807742258 |
| 31 | 156 | 161.415410331597 | -5.4154103315966 |
| 32 | 157 | 163.108076283288 | -6.10807628328797 |
| 33 | 146 | 154.440898210801 | -8.44089821080087 |
| 34 | 150 | 149.04170793013 | 0.958292069869628 |
| 35 | 146 | 146.946123303462 | -0.946123303461746 |
| 36 | 159 | 151.397747805768 | 7.60225219423216 |
| 37 | 146 | 151.253594164881 | -5.2535941648807 |
| 38 | 151 | 151.760008587292 | -0.760008587291765 |
| 39 | 156 | 153.021656755724 | 2.97834324427649 |
| 40 | 152 | 156.274237268001 | -4.27423726800109 |
| 41 | 152 | 154.903684124029 | -2.9036841240287 |
| 42 | 143 | 150.093746917097 | -7.09374691709718 |
| 43 | 127 | 139.268797712543 | -12.2687977125427 |
| 44 | 126 | 135.445913664715 | -9.4459136647145 |
| 45 | 122 | 122.780358420159 | -0.780358420159331 |
| 46 | 122 | 124.851842927184 | -2.85184292718409 |
| 47 | 114 | 118.719417983047 | -4.71941798304671 |
| 48 | 127 | 122.935631332252 | 4.06436866774831 |
| 49 | 125 | 114.675369891487 | 10.3246301085129 |
| 50 | 123 | 125.930594672566 | -2.93059467256623 |
| 51 | 124 | 126.437493018267 | -2.43749301826719 |
| 52 | 123 | 122.677405263953 | 0.32259473604698 |
| 53 | 127 | 123.910777922344 | 3.08922207765633 |
| 54 | 117 | 120.676561420825 | -3.67656142082477 |
| 55 | 104 | 109.530089069581 | -5.53008906958102 |
| 56 | 110 | 110.616031918222 | -0.616031918221893 |
| 57 | 106 | 106.570550405005 | -0.570550405004965 |
| 58 | 107 | 107.862465025745 | -0.862465025745081 |
| 59 | 100 | 102.197338571444 | -2.19733857144375 |
| 60 | 115 | 111.23113218609 | 3.76886781390998 |
| 61 | 117 | 105.072249760517 | 11.9277502394833 |
| 62 | 123 | 112.428296457414 | 10.5717035425861 |
| 63 | 130 | 121.970992866328 | 8.02900713367222 |
| 64 | 129 | 126.448660003908 | 2.55133999609151 |
| 65 | 125 | 130.796957775159 | -5.7969577751586 |
| 66 | 112 | 119.919157790429 | -7.91915779042853 |
| 67 | 90 | 105.762308221345 | -15.7623082213452 |
| 68 | 96 | 102.313548291892 | -6.31354829189227 |
| 69 | 99 | 94.6334276458214 | 4.3665723541786 |
| 70 | 108 | 98.9847237569335 | 9.0152762430665 |
| 71 | 101 | 99.3568956337943 | 1.6431043662057 |
| 72 | 113 | 113.436383977466 | -0.436383977465894 |
| 73 | 113 | 107.965040370215 | 5.03495962978531 |
| 74 | 120 | 110.610642521962 | 9.38935747803775 |
| 75 | 131 | 118.565112450634 | 12.4348875493656 |
| 76 | 135 | 123.99646078678 | 11.0035392132201 |
| 77 | 137 | 130.998982621513 | 6.00101737848746 |
| 78 | 120 | 127.495167577491 | -7.49516757749142 |
| 79 | 102 | 111.445560897239 | -9.44556089723908 |
| 80 | 114 | 116.3876032177 | -2.38760321769955 |
| 81 | 121 | 116.152442748572 | 4.84755725142803 |
| 82 | 134 | 123.557104548995 | 10.4428954510045 |
| 83 | 122 | 123.157701531511 | -1.15770153151095 |
| 84 | 131 | 135.695170433302 | -4.69517043330245 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 130.454034707349 | 118.314640487486 | 142.593428927211 |
| 86 | 132.296755827628 | 117.784366395379 | 146.809145259877 |
| 87 | 135.979829744022 | 119.277750696334 | 152.681908791709 |
| 88 | 133.241058661304 | 114.463065326114 | 152.019051996494 |
| 89 | 131.364472486531 | 110.585435843744 | 152.143509129317 |
| 90 | 118.823837581678 | 96.0944824641646 | 141.553192699191 |
| 91 | 106.704695730556 | 82.0596791209231 | 131.349712340188 |
| 92 | 120.389729911359 | 93.8524675823117 | 146.926992240407 |
| 93 | 124.584442277445 | 96.170183920447 | 152.998700634443 |
| 94 | 131.132979019595 | 100.850866294637 | 161.415091744552 |
| 95 | 119.709624946226 | 87.5641235428816 | 151.85512634957 |
| 96 | 131.541999106187 | 97.5339271914234 | 165.55007102095 |
