| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.346185870041599 |
| beta | 0.111603919487912 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 238 | 235.941239316239 | 2.0587606837606 |
| 14 | 237 | 235.3969563733 | 1.60304362670033 |
| 15 | 244 | 243.256845337065 | 0.74315466293453 |
| 16 | 230 | 230.389431859024 | -0.389431859024484 |
| 17 | 237 | 238.114886958018 | -1.11488695801847 |
| 18 | 244 | 245.671125314383 | -1.67112531438292 |
| 19 | 239 | 234.428570048477 | 4.57142995152327 |
| 20 | 240 | 238.440386271279 | 1.55961372872056 |
| 21 | 230 | 240.136477709341 | -10.1364777093412 |
| 22 | 228 | 236.558584311988 | -8.55858431198797 |
| 23 | 231 | 234.321268417602 | -3.32126841760171 |
| 24 | 228 | 234.060384419367 | -6.06038441936744 |
| 25 | 225 | 230.879823462712 | -5.87982346271187 |
| 26 | 227 | 226.182264653014 | 0.81773534698624 |
| 27 | 238 | 232.070646540989 | 5.92935345901117 |
| 28 | 214 | 219.321056263557 | -5.3210562635569 |
| 29 | 222 | 223.737338651766 | -1.73733865176635 |
| 30 | 233 | 229.562766441861 | 3.43723355813876 |
| 31 | 228 | 223.215838609252 | 4.78416139074776 |
| 32 | 218 | 224.386065407814 | -6.38606540781421 |
| 33 | 203 | 214.431352238965 | -11.4313522389646 |
| 34 | 209 | 210.133759276445 | -1.1337592764454 |
| 35 | 207 | 212.874826045797 | -5.87482604579728 |
| 36 | 203 | 208.824187260518 | -5.82418726051802 |
| 37 | 195 | 204.737696897866 | -9.73769689786576 |
| 38 | 199 | 201.828752932247 | -2.82875293224694 |
| 39 | 207 | 208.40113315391 | -1.40113315390957 |
| 40 | 182 | 184.07924956736 | -2.07924956736014 |
| 41 | 181 | 190.407228731678 | -9.4072287316782 |
| 42 | 189 | 195.110669698856 | -6.11066969885616 |
| 43 | 186 | 184.12015551378 | 1.87984448622038 |
| 44 | 174 | 174.65060880023 | -0.650608800230458 |
| 45 | 153 | 161.273255306033 | -8.27325530603287 |
| 46 | 158 | 162.814183405711 | -4.81418340571108 |
| 47 | 153 | 159.051687882799 | -6.05168788279883 |
| 48 | 147 | 152.836422182996 | -5.83642218299565 |
| 49 | 143 | 144.050007460696 | -1.05000746069641 |
| 50 | 156 | 146.864458068119 | 9.13554193188074 |
| 51 | 168 | 157.17302906551 | 10.8269709344904 |
| 52 | 142 | 135.774344565098 | 6.22565543490157 |
| 53 | 146 | 139.640458315702 | 6.35954168429771 |
| 54 | 150 | 152.020859648375 | -2.02085964837457 |
| 55 | 145 | 147.891894023194 | -2.89189402319386 |
| 56 | 133 | 135.153036320324 | -2.15303632032445 |
| 57 | 111 | 116.250765887901 | -5.2507658879006 |
| 58 | 115 | 121.195399428938 | -6.1953994289378 |
| 59 | 109 | 116.188056501917 | -7.1880565019172 |
| 60 | 105 | 109.718643381837 | -4.71864338183654 |
| 61 | 96 | 104.490303212596 | -8.49030321259619 |
| 62 | 112 | 111.142713390679 | 0.857286609321037 |
| 63 | 127 | 119.125742074271 | 7.87425792572856 |
| 64 | 107 | 93.0167773537544 | 13.9832226462456 |
| 65 | 116 | 99.276019411588 | 16.7239805884119 |
| 66 | 125 | 109.785687020689 | 15.2143129793113 |
| 67 | 120 | 111.740161786482 | 8.25983821351832 |
| 68 | 107 | 104.462168538912 | 2.53783146108769 |
| 69 | 86 | 86.4569225710658 | -0.456922571065846 |
| 70 | 87 | 93.9271673493949 | -6.92716734939488 |
| 71 | 79 | 89.4728762963973 | -10.4728762963973 |
| 72 | 83 | 84.8093236651718 | -1.80932366517177 |
| 73 | 75 | 79.5630694829347 | -4.56306948293468 |
| 74 | 89 | 95.2792353176928 | -6.27923531769282 |
| 75 | 104 | 106.696387949595 | -2.69638794959508 |
| 76 | 86 | 81.8306301455162 | 4.16936985448385 |
| 77 | 98 | 87.0137239355625 | 10.9862760644375 |
| 78 | 98 | 94.8576796971306 | 3.14232030286936 |
| 79 | 85 | 87.9272998192283 | -2.92729981922825 |
| 80 | 74 | 72.4443581959761 | 1.55564180402391 |
| 81 | 49 | 51.5121415641949 | -2.51214156419486 |
| 82 | 54 | 53.332218301527 | 0.667781698472979 |
| 83 | 47 | 48.7740500496292 | -1.77405004962918 |
| 84 | 56 | 52.7074398851711 | 3.29256011482893 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 47.5452413114487 | 35.3596142377337 | 59.7308683851638 |
| 86 | 64.0136146958272 | 50.9568552213931 | 77.0703741702614 |
| 87 | 80.4842595986172 | 66.4448322143786 | 94.5236869828558 |
| 88 | 61.682252998325 | 46.555704389738 | 76.8088016069121 |
| 89 | 70.3592432679948 | 54.048414708992 | 86.6700718269975 |
| 90 | 69.3272377217598 | 51.7419940949844 | 86.9124813485352 |
| 91 | 57.2750431538902 | 38.3317389563754 | 76.2183473514051 |
| 92 | 45.7840158173614 | 25.4048505862527 | 66.1631810484702 |
| 93 | 21.6410942953023 | -0.246548426581541 | 43.5287370171862 |
| 94 | 26.4943866196423 | 3.03020828654 | 49.9585649527446 |
| 95 | 20.1672063788479 | -4.93757332568744 | 45.2719860833833 |
| 96 | 28.1545789555547 | 1.34862612537637 | 54.9605317857329 |
