| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.307424590775851 |
| beta | 0.196794089031134 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 432 | 438.758814102564 | -6.7588141025642 |
| 14 | 435 | 439.444724495245 | -4.4447244952446 |
| 15 | 426 | 429.114806696529 | -3.11480669652906 |
| 16 | 411 | 413.546961243023 | -2.54696124302302 |
| 17 | 405 | 407.541262632317 | -2.54126263231717 |
| 18 | 403 | 405.841904530174 | -2.84190453017379 |
| 19 | 402 | 402.211521694026 | -0.211521694025691 |
| 20 | 399 | 400.58531963483 | -1.5853196348296 |
| 21 | 392 | 397.607534177317 | -5.60753417731712 |
| 22 | 387 | 392.928968930485 | -5.92896893048527 |
| 23 | 380 | 389.501221348796 | -9.50122134879553 |
| 24 | 379 | 385.608791220062 | -6.60879122006196 |
| 25 | 386 | 377.649749274919 | 8.35025072508051 |
| 26 | 385 | 382.370006021355 | 2.62999397864479 |
| 27 | 365 | 373.350881557889 | -8.35088155788901 |
| 28 | 356 | 354.464617184795 | 1.53538281520508 |
| 29 | 338 | 347.862860828351 | -9.86286082835107 |
| 30 | 338 | 341.406476921289 | -3.40647692128869 |
| 31 | 343 | 337.092143569424 | 5.90785643057598 |
| 32 | 338 | 334.433822958113 | 3.56617704188653 |
| 33 | 320 | 328.603802339481 | -8.60380233948132 |
| 34 | 316 | 320.949975484108 | -4.94997548410754 |
| 35 | 317 | 313.57685155197 | 3.42314844803042 |
| 36 | 315 | 314.670543541699 | 0.329456458300683 |
| 37 | 317 | 318.634140610284 | -1.63414061028442 |
| 38 | 321 | 315.148578134086 | 5.85142186591372 |
| 39 | 303 | 298.534947075446 | 4.46505292455373 |
| 40 | 303 | 290.231186940131 | 12.7688130598685 |
| 41 | 290 | 279.663922395435 | 10.3360776045649 |
| 42 | 285 | 285.585946458503 | -0.585946458502747 |
| 43 | 300 | 290.457456862391 | 9.54254313760856 |
| 44 | 291 | 289.382500018535 | 1.61749998146513 |
| 45 | 278 | 276.494647276101 | 1.50535272389885 |
| 46 | 273 | 277.060638715541 | -4.0606387155413 |
| 47 | 277 | 278.395207605667 | -1.39520760566705 |
| 48 | 269 | 278.208765185761 | -9.20876518576063 |
| 49 | 275 | 279.646844913491 | -4.64684491349061 |
| 50 | 278 | 282.003858504252 | -4.00385850425232 |
| 51 | 255 | 262.388507852757 | -7.3885078527565 |
| 52 | 254 | 256.462720068085 | -2.46272006808482 |
| 53 | 245 | 238.877625542906 | 6.12237445709434 |
| 54 | 240 | 235.034572697918 | 4.96542730208247 |
| 55 | 261 | 248.057953539296 | 12.9420464607039 |
| 56 | 247 | 242.175564125598 | 4.8244358744015 |
| 57 | 229 | 230.026115936374 | -1.02611593637397 |
| 58 | 213 | 225.636034702473 | -12.6360347024727 |
| 59 | 218 | 225.338554057704 | -7.33855405770413 |
| 60 | 206 | 216.712160422525 | -10.7121604225253 |
| 61 | 217 | 219.555236335325 | -2.55523633532545 |
| 62 | 219 | 221.83482240719 | -2.83482240719007 |
| 63 | 196 | 199.139707201191 | -3.13970720119136 |
| 64 | 193 | 197.093604263142 | -4.09360426314203 |
| 65 | 188 | 184.016313318857 | 3.98368668114301 |
| 66 | 171 | 177.648465039572 | -6.64846503957168 |
| 67 | 190 | 190.857190139797 | -0.857190139796927 |
| 68 | 180 | 172.507003930328 | 7.4929960696723 |
| 69 | 149 | 154.683919932116 | -5.68391993211577 |
| 70 | 135 | 138.097308371729 | -3.09730837172867 |
| 71 | 151 | 142.254395661699 | 8.74560433830081 |
| 72 | 134 | 135.062496105495 | -1.06249610549492 |
| 73 | 145 | 145.931504579047 | -0.931504579046731 |
| 74 | 151 | 148.024969406048 | 2.97503059395223 |
| 75 | 137 | 126.764620578345 | 10.2353794216547 |
| 76 | 124 | 128.838716875522 | -4.83871687552221 |
| 77 | 125 | 121.75042860112 | 3.24957139887967 |
| 78 | 109 | 108.372850439621 | 0.62714956037911 |
| 79 | 131 | 128.848864899479 | 2.15113510052055 |
| 80 | 133 | 118.408339110442 | 14.5916608895578 |
| 81 | 103 | 95.272709433396 | 7.72729056660397 |
| 82 | 85 | 87.0429849328856 | -2.04298493288563 |
| 83 | 104 | 102.232620766311 | 1.76737923368931 |
| 84 | 82 | 88.1867294804112 | -6.1867294804112 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 99.3452668127692 | 87.3595368519948 | 111.330996773544 |
| 86 | 106.261147361343 | 93.4899146782371 | 119.032380044449 |
| 87 | 90.765030748451 | 77.0001385637869 | 104.529922933115 |
| 88 | 80.2838282979614 | 65.3234484894669 | 95.2442081064558 |
| 89 | 81.6088263231211 | 65.2632419280442 | 97.954410718198 |
| 90 | 66.543424376475 | 48.6375768412269 | 84.4492719117233 |
| 91 | 88.9715696628839 | 69.345354344465 | 108.597784981303 |
| 92 | 87.4450491408084 | 65.9523385621415 | 108.937759719475 |
| 93 | 55.1460189695004 | 31.6531298255621 | 78.6389081134387 |
| 94 | 37.3831157484463 | 11.7671510359541 | 62.9990804609386 |
| 95 | 55.5724121275189 | 27.7196985258109 | 83.4251257292269 |
| 96 | 35.1000718417996 | 4.90478273398765 | 65.2953609496116 |
