| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.691910685724984 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 72 | 73 | -1 |
| 3 | 71 | 72.308089314275 | -1.30808931427501 |
| 4 | 69 | 71.4030083398455 | -2.40300833984546 |
| 5 | 89 | 69.7403411916201 | 19.2596588083799 |
| 6 | 88 | 83.0663049245555 | 4.93369507544452 |
| 7 | 73 | 86.4799812673643 | -13.4799812673643 |
| 8 | 63 | 77.1530381851023 | -14.1530381851023 |
| 9 | 64 | 67.3603998293563 | -3.36039982935628 |
| 10 | 64 | 65.0353032791162 | -1.03530327911625 |
| 11 | 65 | 64.3189658773296 | 0.681034122670397 |
| 12 | 67 | 64.7901806641486 | 2.20981933585141 |
| 13 | 69 | 66.3191782761459 | 2.68082172385414 |
| 14 | 71 | 68.1740674734042 | 2.82593252659578 |
| 15 | 70 | 70.1293603856936 | -0.129360385693644 |
| 16 | 72 | 70.0398545525227 | 1.96014544747729 |
| 17 | 88 | 71.3961001332074 | 16.6038998667926 |
| 18 | 83 | 82.8845158757489 | 0.115484124251140 |
| 19 | 76 | 82.9644205753498 | -6.96442057534982 |
| 20 | 70 | 78.1456635593823 | -8.14566355938234 |
| 21 | 75 | 72.5095919003251 | 2.49040809967491 |
| 22 | 71 | 74.2327318763062 | -3.23273187630622 |
| 23 | 75 | 71.9959701470062 | 3.00402985299382 |
| 24 | 81 | 74.0744905025295 | 6.92550949747054 |
| 25 | 87 | 78.8663245279192 | 8.13367547208081 |
| 26 | 90 | 84.4941015012711 | 5.5058984987289 |
| 27 | 80 | 88.3036915070588 | -8.30369150705877 |
| 28 | 85 | 82.558278622361 | 2.441721377639 |
| 29 | 105 | 84.2477317351126 | 20.7522682648874 |
| 30 | 104 | 98.6064479006197 | 5.39355209938034 |
| 31 | 98 | 102.338304232195 | -4.33830423219534 |
| 32 | 94 | 99.3365851760135 | -5.33658517601346 |
| 33 | 107 | 95.6441448674482 | 11.3558551325518 |
| 34 | 112 | 103.501382379206 | 8.4986176207943 |
| 35 | 121 | 109.381666724924 | 11.6183332750761 |
| 36 | 118 | 117.420515668263 | 0.579484331736779 |
| 37 | 120 | 117.821467069602 | 2.17853293039789 |
| 38 | 122 | 119.328817283348 | 2.67118271665183 |
| 39 | 109 | 121.177037148523 | -12.1770371485235 |
| 40 | 112 | 112.75161502499 | -0.751615024990002 |
| 41 | 132 | 112.231564557648 | 19.7684354423520 |
| 42 | 127 | 125.909556280276 | 1.09044371972415 |
| 43 | 116 | 126.664045942135 | -10.6640459421347 |
| 44 | 113 | 119.285478601710 | -6.28547860170954 |
| 45 | 123 | 114.936488792291 | 8.06351120770901 |
| 46 | 125 | 120.515718361368 | 4.48428163863198 |
| 47 | 137 | 123.618440744938 | 13.3815592550622 |
| 48 | 127 | 132.877284585177 | -5.87728458517742 |
| 49 | 123 | 128.810728577646 | -5.81072857764642 |
| 50 | 128 | 124.790223382925 | 3.20977661707468 |
| 51 | 114 | 127.011102123069 | -13.0111021230695 |
| 52 | 120 | 118.008581531059 | 1.99141846894132 |
| 53 | 143 | 119.386465249469 | 23.6135347505307 |
| 54 | 135 | 135.724922271100 | -0.724922271099729 |
| 55 | 119 | 135.223340805406 | -16.2233408054058 |
| 56 | 117 | 123.998237943987 | -6.99823794398733 |
| 57 | 132 | 119.156082329296 | 12.8439176707035 |
| 58 | 139 | 128.042926212228 | 10.9570737877718 |
| 59 | 158 | 135.624242650265 | 22.3757573497354 |
| 60 | 141 | 151.106268261736 | -10.1062682617359 |
| 61 | 139 | 144.113633258638 | -5.11363325863758 |
| 62 | 150 | 140.575455764108 | 9.42454423589243 |
| 63 | 142 | 147.096398629009 | -5.09639862900934 |
| 64 | 149 | 143.570145958884 | 5.42985404111639 |
| 65 | 166 | 147.327119991859 | 18.6728800081410 |
| 66 | 150 | 160.247085202752 | -10.2470852027522 |
| 67 | 139 | 153.157017453434 | -14.1570174534336 |
| 68 | 140 | 143.361625799408 | -3.36162579940776 |
| 69 | 158 | 141.035680987389 | 16.9643190126113 |
| 70 | 169 | 152.773474588262 | 16.226525411738 |
| 71 | 186 | 164.000780912832 | 21.9992190871685 |
| 72 | 177 | 179.222275676848 | -2.22227567684845 |
| 73 | 175 | 177.684659389410 | -2.68465938941029 |
| 74 | 187 | 175.827114870345 | 11.1728851296546 |
| 75 | 176 | 183.557753481931 | -7.55775348193117 |
| 76 | 185 | 178.328463087708 | 6.6715369122922 |
| 77 | 204 | 182.944570767531 | 21.0554292324686 |
| 78 | 188 | 197.513047246003 | -9.51304724600266 |
| 79 | 171 | 190.930868202687 | -19.9308682026868 |
| 80 | 171 | 177.140487517471 | -6.14048751747148 |
| 81 | 182 | 172.891818588572 | 9.10818141142792 |
| 82 | 185 | 179.193866634661 | 5.80613336533926 |
| 83 | 200 | 183.211192352883 | 16.7888076471166 |
| 84 | 192 | 194.827547764505 | -2.82754776450469 |
| 85 | 185 | 192.871137251846 | -7.8711372518461 |
| 86 | 195 | 187.425013278486 | 7.5749867215142 |
| 87 | 190 | 192.666227535326 | -2.66622753532633 |
| 88 | 195 | 190.821436213060 | 4.17856378694017 |
| 89 | 213 | 193.712629148227 | 19.2873708517728 |
| 90 | 194 | 207.057767140109 | -13.0577671401094 |
| 91 | 171 | 198.022958524159 | -27.0229585241592 |
| 92 | 171 | 179.325484761390 | -8.32548476139038 |
| 93 | 186 | 173.564992891144 | 12.4350071088562 |
| 94 | 182 | 182.168907186828 | -0.168907186827568 |
| 95 | 193 | 182.052038499366 | 10.9479615006342 |
| 96 | 185 | 189.627050048560 | -4.62705004856036 |
| 97 | 172 | 186.425544676577 | -14.4255446765771 |
| 98 | 185 | 176.444356167450 | 8.55564383254975 |
| 99 | 179 | 182.364097558448 | -3.36409755844849 |
| 100 | 182 | 180.036442509937 | 1.96355749006335 |
| 101 | 193 | 181.395048919347 | 11.6049510806532 |
| 102 | 173 | 189.424638579366 | -16.4246385793665 |
| 103 | 155 | 178.060255637132 | -23.060255637132 |
| 104 | 164 | 162.104618346251 | 1.89538165374944 |
| 105 | 188 | 163.416053166007 | 24.5839468339931 |
| 106 | 186 | 180.425948677742 | 5.57405132225838 |
| 107 | 200 | 184.282694350392 | 15.7173056496083 |
| 108 | 185 | 195.157666080161 | -10.1576660801613 |
| 109 | 173 | 188.129468377272 | -15.1294683772715 |
| 110 | 190 | 177.661227537699 | 12.3387724623009 |
| 111 | 190 | 186.198556053094 | 3.80144394690575 |
| 112 | 193 | 188.828815741143 | 4.17118425885712 |
| 113 | 195 | 191.714902701974 | 3.28509729802602 |
| 114 | 178 | 193.987896626124 | -15.9878966261244 |
| 115 | 163 | 182.925700108243 | -19.9257001082425 |
| 116 | 165 | 169.138895282798 | -4.13889528279805 |
| 117 | 188 | 166.275149409533 | 21.7248505904666 |
| 118 | 182 | 181.306805678856 | 0.693194321144034 |
| 119 | 200 | 181.786434236939 | 18.2135657630606 |
| 120 | 177 | 194.388595013556 | -17.3885950135557 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 182.357240313932 | 160.436308701556 | 204.278171926309 |
| 122 | 182.357240313932 | 155.700626768136 | 209.013853859728 |
| 123 | 182.357240313932 | 151.687665020079 | 213.026815607786 |
| 124 | 182.357240313932 | 148.142175624811 | 216.572305003054 |
| 125 | 182.357240313932 | 144.931066923427 | 219.783413704438 |
| 126 | 182.357240313932 | 141.974493284643 | 222.739987343222 |
| 127 | 182.357240313932 | 139.220086251489 | 225.494394376376 |
| 128 | 182.357240313932 | 136.631297310180 | 228.083183317685 |
| 129 | 182.357240313932 | 134.181419962247 | 230.533060665618 |
| 130 | 182.357240313932 | 131.850236150814 | 232.864244477051 |
| 131 | 182.357240313932 | 129.622002829792 | 235.092477798073 |
| 132 | 182.357240313932 | 127.484177017957 | 237.230303609907 |
