| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0183448029323068 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 78 | 78 | 0 |
| 4 | 76 | 77 | -1 |
| 5 | 74 | 74.9816551970677 | -0.981655197067695 |
| 6 | 73 | 72.96364692593 | 0.0363530740699929 |
| 7 | 74 | 71.9643138159098 | 2.03568618409020 |
| 8 | 76 | 73.001658077789 | 2.99834192221104 |
| 9 | 77 | 75.0566620694756 | 1.94333793052441 |
| 10 | 77 | 76.092312220842 | 0.907687779158053 |
| 11 | 78 | 76.1089635742747 | 1.89103642572533 |
| 12 | 80 | 77.1436542648424 | 2.85634573515759 |
| 13 | 90 | 79.1960533644604 | 10.8039466355396 |
| 14 | 90 | 89.3942496363805 | 0.605750363619464 |
| 15 | 89 | 89.4053620074273 | -0.405362007427314 |
| 16 | 82 | 88.3979257212848 | -6.39792572128482 |
| 17 | 78 | 81.2805570347523 | -3.28055703475231 |
| 18 | 76 | 77.2203758624416 | -1.22037586244159 |
| 19 | 74 | 75.1979883077418 | -1.19798830774175 |
| 20 | 78 | 73.176011448321 | 4.82398855167898 |
| 21 | 81 | 77.2645065676493 | 3.73549343235072 |
| 22 | 82 | 80.3330334585207 | 1.66696654147933 |
| 23 | 88 | 81.3636136312189 | 6.63638636878113 |
| 24 | 99 | 87.4853568313368 | 11.5146431686632 |
| 25 | 117 | 98.6965906911018 | 18.3034093088982 |
| 26 | 113 | 117.032363127863 | -4.03236312786285 |
| 27 | 106 | 112.958390220931 | -6.95839022093071 |
| 28 | 100 | 105.830739923602 | -5.83073992360164 |
| 29 | 97 | 99.7237761487536 | -2.72377614875363 |
| 30 | 96 | 96.673809012073 | -0.673809012073036 |
| 31 | 100 | 95.6614481185325 | 4.33855188146747 |
| 32 | 104 | 99.7410379978096 | 4.25896200219036 |
| 33 | 104 | 103.819167816436 | 0.180832183563993 |
| 34 | 111 | 103.822485147207 | 7.17751485279268 |
| 35 | 117 | 110.954155242726 | 6.04584475727449 |
| 36 | 118 | 117.065065073357 | 0.934934926642981 |
| 37 | 140 | 118.082216270341 | 21.9177837296592 |
| 38 | 147 | 140.484293693574 | 6.51570630642567 |
| 39 | 134 | 147.603823041730 | -13.6038230417305 |
| 40 | 126 | 134.354263588904 | -8.35426358890399 |
| 41 | 116 | 126.201006269721 | -10.201006269721 |
| 42 | 114 | 116.013870819992 | -2.01387081999174 |
| 43 | 120 | 113.976926756668 | 6.02307324333214 |
| 44 | 122 | 120.087418848364 | 1.91258115163636 |
| 45 | 117 | 122.122504772682 | -5.12250477268245 |
| 46 | 119 | 117.028533432108 | 1.97146656789221 |
| 47 | 132 | 119.064699597783 | 12.9353004022166 |
| 48 | 134 | 132.301995134532 | 1.69800486546774 |
| 49 | 154 | 134.333144699167 | 19.6668553008326 |
| 50 | 152 | 154.693929283959 | -2.69392928395933 |
| 51 | 132 | 152.644509682132 | -20.6445096821315 |
| 52 | 130 | 132.265790220379 | -2.26579022037873 |
| 53 | 123 | 130.2242247453 | -7.22422474529992 |
| 54 | 129 | 123.091697766009 | 5.90830223399129 |
| 55 | 124 | 129.200084406156 | -5.20008440615578 |
| 56 | 128 | 124.104689882494 | 3.8953101175065 |
| 57 | 128 | 128.176148578959 | -0.176148578959385 |
| 58 | 129 | 128.172917167992 | 0.827082832008443 |
| 59 | 141 | 129.188089839553 | 11.8119101604466 |
| 60 | 138 | 141.404777003701 | -3.40477700370096 |
| 61 | 155 | 138.342317040540 | 16.6576829594604 |
| 62 | 160 | 155.647898951740 | 4.35210104826024 |
| 63 | 142 | 160.727737387812 | -18.7277373878116 |
| 64 | 133 | 142.384180736064 | -9.38418073606417 |
| 65 | 131 | 133.21202978978 | -2.21202978977993 |
| 66 | 140 | 131.171450539206 | 8.82854946079397 |
| 67 | 134 | 140.333408539242 | -6.33340853924241 |
| 68 | 134 | 134.217223407700 | -0.217223407700232 |
| 69 | 134 | 134.213238487094 | -0.213238487093690 |
| 70 | 136 | 134.209326669070 | 1.79067333092965 |
| 71 | 145 | 136.242176218442 | 8.75782378155759 |
| 72 | 137 | 145.402836769831 | -8.40283676983094 |
| 73 | 152 | 137.248688385216 | 14.7513116147839 |
| 74 | 168 | 152.519298289782 | 15.4807017102177 |
| 75 | 160 | 168.80328871191 | -8.80328871191008 |
| 76 | 157 | 160.641794115334 | -3.64179411533388 |
| 77 | 147 | 157.574986119968 | -10.5749861199681 |
| 78 | 161 | 147.380990083585 | 13.6190099164146 |
| 79 | 159 | 161.630828136635 | -2.63082813663513 |
| 80 | 164 | 159.582566112920 | 4.41743388708022 |
| 81 | 163 | 164.663603067045 | -1.66360306704476 |
| 82 | 158 | 163.633084596622 | -5.63308459662224 |
| 83 | 175 | 158.529746769796 | 16.4702532302038 |
| 84 | 163 | 175.831890319549 | -12.8318903195495 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 163.596491820388 | 147.477366090804 | 179.715617549973 |
| 86 | 164.192983640777 | 141.187054193133 | 187.19891308842 |
| 87 | 164.789475461165 | 136.355084207689 | 193.223866714641 |
| 88 | 165.385967281553 | 132.254010767216 | 198.517923795890 |
| 89 | 165.982459101942 | 128.604879206357 | 203.360038997527 |
| 90 | 166.578950922330 | 125.265995391784 | 207.891906452876 |
| 91 | 167.175442742719 | 122.153982643268 | 212.196902842169 |
| 92 | 167.771934563107 | 119.215028948480 | 216.328840177733 |
| 93 | 168.368426383495 | 116.412109978487 | 220.324742788504 |
| 94 | 168.964918203884 | 113.718525167057 | 224.21131124071 |
| 95 | 169.561410024272 | 111.114311293551 | 228.008508754993 |
| 96 | 170.157901844660 | 108.584109421917 | 231.731694267404 |
