| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0112924114735404 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 388 | 388 | 0 |
| 4 | 386 | 387 | -1 |
| 5 | 406 | 384.988707588526 | 21.0112924114736 |
| 6 | 405 | 405.225975748028 | -0.225975748027679 |
| 7 | 390 | 404.223423936898 | -14.2234239368979 |
| 8 | 380 | 389.06280718124 | -9.06280718123986 |
| 9 | 381 | 378.960466233444 | 2.03953376655602 |
| 10 | 381 | 379.98349748795 | 1.01650251204990 |
| 11 | 382 | 379.99497625258 | 2.00502374741995 |
| 12 | 384 | 381.01761780575 | 2.98238219424985 |
| 13 | 394 | 383.051296092659 | 10.9487039073410 |
| 14 | 393 | 393.174933362283 | -0.174933362282616 |
| 15 | 388 | 392.172957942775 | -4.17295794277527 |
| 16 | 381 | 387.125835184624 | -6.12583518462367 |
| 17 | 399 | 380.0566597331 | 18.9433402669002 |
| 18 | 396 | 398.270575726077 | -2.27057572607691 |
| 19 | 378 | 395.244935450696 | -17.2449354506962 |
| 20 | 368 | 377.050198543752 | -9.05019854375234 |
| 21 | 369 | 366.947999977879 | 2.05200002212098 |
| 22 | 373 | 367.971172006473 | 5.02882799352744 |
| 23 | 374 | 372.027959601405 | 1.97204039859486 |
| 24 | 379 | 373.050228693028 | 5.94977130697151 |
| 25 | 385 | 378.1174159588 | 6.88258404119972 |
| 26 | 385 | 384.195136929795 | 0.804863070205272 |
| 27 | 395 | 384.204225774763 | 10.7957742252366 |
| 28 | 387 | 394.32613609949 | -7.32613609949016 |
| 29 | 400 | 386.243406356144 | 13.7565936438564 |
| 30 | 390 | 399.398751472044 | -9.3987514720443 |
| 31 | 365 | 389.292616903084 | -24.2926169030844 |
| 32 | 350 | 364.018294677246 | -14.0182946772457 |
| 33 | 365 | 348.859994325593 | 16.1400056744071 |
| 34 | 374 | 364.042253910854 | 9.95774608914644 |
| 35 | 367 | 373.154700877041 | -6.15470087704125 |
| 36 | 375 | 366.085199462241 | 8.91480053775888 |
| 37 | 382 | 374.185869058118 | 7.81413094188196 |
| 38 | 380 | 381.274109440022 | -1.27410944002190 |
| 39 | 378 | 379.259721671963 | -1.25972167196289 |
| 40 | 363 | 377.245496376501 | -14.2454963765009 |
| 41 | 375 | 362.084630369773 | 12.9153696302274 |
| 42 | 366 | 374.23047603797 | -8.23047603797005 |
| 43 | 341 | 365.137534115926 | -24.1375341159261 |
| 44 | 326 | 339.864963148732 | -13.8649631487325 |
| 45 | 338 | 324.708394279792 | 13.2916057202085 |
| 46 | 345 | 336.858488560728 | 8.14151143927177 |
| 47 | 336 | 343.950425857917 | -7.95042585791703 |
| 48 | 342 | 334.860646377739 | 7.1393536222605 |
| 49 | 347 | 340.941266896497 | 6.05873310350279 |
| 50 | 360 | 346.00968460371 | 13.9903153962897 |
| 51 | 360 | 359.16766900181 | 0.832330998190173 |
| 52 | 334 | 359.177068025924 | -25.1770680259236 |
| 53 | 347 | 332.892758214078 | 14.1072417859225 |
| 54 | 336 | 346.052062993081 | -10.0520629930809 |
| 55 | 305 | 334.938550961605 | -29.9385509616051 |
| 56 | 289 | 303.600472525225 | -14.6004725252251 |
| 57 | 303 | 287.435597981762 | 15.5644020182379 |
| 58 | 308 | 301.611357613692 | 6.38864238630833 |
| 59 | 294 | 306.683500792275 | -12.6835007922751 |
| 60 | 299 | 292.540273482404 | 6.45972651759621 |
| 61 | 306 | 297.613219372247 | 8.38678062775296 |
| 62 | 313 | 304.707926350034 | 8.29207364996608 |
| 63 | 321 | 311.801563857658 | 9.19843614234173 |
| 64 | 287 | 319.905436383491 | -32.9054363834907 |
| 65 | 296 | 285.533854656132 | 10.4661453438681 |
| 66 | 283 | 294.652042675897 | -11.6520426758967 |
| 67 | 248 | 281.520463015493 | -33.5204630154932 |
| 68 | 235 | 246.141936154339 | -11.1419361543387 |
| 69 | 241 | 233.016116826672 | 7.98388317332802 |
| 70 | 244 | 239.106274120622 | 4.89372587937811 |
| 71 | 237 | 242.161536086891 | -5.16153608689055 |
| 72 | 241 | 235.103249897562 | 5.89675010243815 |
| 73 | 251 | 239.169838426075 | 11.8301615739248 |
| 74 | 259 | 249.303429478366 | 9.69657052163356 |
| 75 | 264 | 257.412927142579 | 6.58707285742105 |
| 76 | 229 | 262.487311079691 | -33.4873110796911 |
| 77 | 237 | 227.109158583837 | 9.8908414161632 |
| 78 | 228 | 235.220850034928 | -7.22085003492765 |
| 79 | 197 | 226.139309225145 | -29.1393092251445 |
| 80 | 182 | 194.810256155319 | -12.8102561553195 |
| 81 | 182 | 179.665597471732 | 2.33440252826787 |
| 82 | 176 | 179.691958505626 | -3.69195850562619 |
| 83 | 172 | 173.650267391037 | -1.65026739103743 |
| 84 | 175 | 169.631631892616 | 5.36836810738353 |
| 85 | 185 | 172.692253714226 | 12.3077462857735 |
| 86 | 195 | 182.831237849597 | 12.1687621504026 |
| 87 | 206 | 192.968652518923 | 13.0313474810766 |
| 88 | 175 | 204.115807856734 | -29.1158078567344 |
| 89 | 185 | 172.787020174032 | 12.2129798259684 |
| 90 | 174 | 182.924934167544 | -8.92493416754445 |
| 91 | 140 | 171.824150138550 | -31.8241501385503 |
| 92 | 130 | 137.46477874039 | -7.46477874039005 |
| 93 | 133 | 127.380483387295 | 5.61951661270537 |
| 94 | 130 | 130.443941281168 | -0.443941281167696 |
| 95 | 131 | 127.438928113551 | 3.56107188644934 |
| 96 | 136 | 128.479141202579 | 7.52085879742069 |
| 97 | 149 | 133.564069834754 | 15.4359301652458 |
| 98 | 155 | 146.738378709657 | 8.26162129034304 |
| 99 | 161 | 152.831672336706 | 8.16832766329392 |
| 100 | 131 | 158.923912453731 | -27.9239124537307 |
| 101 | 145 | 128.608584144352 | 16.3914158556479 |
| 102 | 134 | 142.793682756828 | -8.79368275682793 |
| 103 | 93 | 131.69438087277 | -38.6943808727701 |
| 104 | 87 | 90.2574280022409 | -3.25742800224086 |
| 105 | 86 | 84.2206437848941 | 1.77935621510588 |
| 106 | 80 | 83.2407370074331 | -3.2407370074331 |
| 107 | 79 | 77.2041412716676 | 1.79585872833236 |
| 108 | 91 | 76.2244208473763 | 14.7755791526237 |
| 109 | 108 | 88.3912727669276 | 19.6087272330724 |
| 110 | 105 | 105.612702583316 | -0.612702583315865 |
| 111 | 112 | 102.605783693634 | 9.39421630636583 |
| 112 | 78 | 109.711867049637 | -31.7118670496371 |
| 113 | 87 | 75.3537635983184 | 11.6462364016816 |
| 114 | 74 | 84.4852776918843 | -10.4852776918843 |
| 115 | 32 | 71.3668736217732 | -39.3668736217732 |
| 116 | 25 | 28.9223266864093 | -3.92232668640928 |
| 117 | 26 | 21.8780341595327 | 4.1219658404673 |
| 118 | 25 | 22.9245810938831 | 2.07541890611687 |
| 119 | 22 | 21.9480175781510 | 0.0519824218490292 |
| 120 | 36 | 18.9486045850479 | 17.0513954149521 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 33.1411559582716 | 5.79390527622464 | 60.4884066403185 |
| 122 | 30.2823119165431 | -8.61152007159018 | 69.1761439046764 |
| 123 | 27.4234678748147 | -20.4802363213140 | 75.3271720709434 |
| 124 | 24.5646238330862 | -31.0606130830907 | 80.1898607492632 |
| 125 | 21.7057797913578 | -40.8332258025907 | 84.2447853853062 |
| 126 | 18.8469357496294 | -50.0430949293769 | 87.7369664286356 |
| 127 | 15.9880917079009 | -58.834933063564 | 90.8111164793658 |
| 128 | 13.1292476661725 | -67.3024878790546 | 93.5609832113995 |
| 129 | 10.2704036244440 | -75.5105045235792 | 96.0513117724673 |
| 130 | 7.4115595827156 | -83.50585420994 | 98.3289733753712 |
| 131 | 4.55271554098716 | -91.3237184879251 | 100.429149569899 |
| 132 | 1.69387149925872 | -98.9912731443912 | 102.379016142909 |
