| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.601667916362739 |
| beta | 0.0534961536760316 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 28 | 28.6610576923077 | -0.661057692307701 |
| 14 | 29 | 29.0120022848353 | -0.0120022848352548 |
| 15 | 25 | 24.5864097087405 | 0.413590291259538 |
| 16 | 28 | 27.0968613951253 | 0.90313860487474 |
| 17 | 55 | 53.9725945113945 | 1.02740548860555 |
| 18 | 53 | 52.2061640422371 | 0.793835957762909 |
| 19 | 42 | 38.6164200807209 | 3.38357991927913 |
| 20 | 32 | 31.6937489863031 | 0.306251013696908 |
| 21 | 37 | 33.9710717646357 | 3.02892823536429 |
| 22 | 41 | 36.9007006092486 | 4.09929939075144 |
| 23 | 37 | 41.1062812553989 | -4.10628125539889 |
| 24 | 38 | 40.9926587481785 | -2.99265874817853 |
| 25 | 39 | 37.0644222208437 | 1.93557777915627 |
| 26 | 32 | 39.5188411962294 | -7.51884119622937 |
| 27 | 36 | 30.7871521894391 | 5.21284781056087 |
| 28 | 39 | 36.5756397798799 | 2.42436022012006 |
| 29 | 83 | 64.6605798923608 | 18.3394201076392 |
| 30 | 83 | 74.0188526368362 | 8.98114736316384 |
| 31 | 66 | 67.4519113967683 | -1.45191139676832 |
| 32 | 53 | 57.3036239330653 | -4.30362393306527 |
| 33 | 72 | 58.6530273257272 | 13.3469726742728 |
| 34 | 77 | 69.3103264827397 | 7.68967351726033 |
| 35 | 69 | 73.6164079359505 | -4.61640793595049 |
| 36 | 72 | 74.8318646627762 | -2.83186466277621 |
| 37 | 81 | 74.1610374859409 | 6.83896251405915 |
| 38 | 71 | 77.1550821602728 | -6.15508216027283 |
| 39 | 63 | 75.7146734558376 | -12.7146734558376 |
| 40 | 66 | 70.428280962221 | -4.42828096222098 |
| 41 | 114 | 101.331398644255 | 12.6686013557446 |
| 42 | 116 | 103.969208164141 | 12.0307918358593 |
| 43 | 109 | 95.5986635451229 | 13.4013364548771 |
| 44 | 97 | 94.2465958812676 | 2.75340411873236 |
| 45 | 111 | 108.095355264368 | 2.90464473563188 |
| 46 | 120 | 111.102820303519 | 8.89717969648059 |
| 47 | 110 | 112.158841656803 | -2.15884165680269 |
| 48 | 106 | 116.568208733904 | -10.568208733904 |
| 49 | 115 | 115.85029392439 | -0.850293924389959 |
| 50 | 110 | 109.549942977455 | 0.450057022545423 |
| 51 | 103 | 110.191266184242 | -7.19126618424195 |
| 52 | 112 | 112.427175337348 | -0.427175337347634 |
| 53 | 163 | 153.574958639764 | 9.42504136023553 |
| 54 | 166 | 154.929853955165 | 11.0701460448349 |
| 55 | 156 | 147.419023024574 | 8.58097697542607 |
| 56 | 140 | 139.661905667139 | 0.338094332861033 |
| 57 | 166 | 152.776572277290 | 13.2234277227102 |
| 58 | 176 | 165.370544391567 | 10.6294556084333 |
| 59 | 163 | 164.111616664646 | -1.11161666464602 |
| 60 | 162 | 166.881815760854 | -4.88181576085424 |
| 61 | 171 | 174.719676939564 | -3.71967693956404 |
| 62 | 167 | 168.382023717026 | -1.38202371702567 |
| 63 | 163 | 165.989431415208 | -2.98943141520823 |
| 64 | 168 | 174.695221143629 | -6.69522114362937 |
| 65 | 222 | 217.04184431105 | 4.95815568894989 |
| 66 | 216 | 217.266348439443 | -1.26634843944308 |
| 67 | 197 | 201.846347553377 | -4.8463475533766 |
| 68 | 178 | 182.79966987299 | -4.79966987298999 |
| 69 | 204 | 197.863016161036 | 6.13698383896426 |
| 70 | 220 | 204.839215099513 | 15.1607849004873 |
| 71 | 196 | 201.454821641072 | -5.4548216410721 |
| 72 | 195 | 199.795292596558 | -4.79529259655803 |
| 73 | 213 | 207.836144289016 | 5.16385571098436 |
| 74 | 218 | 207.748538597498 | 10.2514614025021 |
| 75 | 216 | 212.063553709084 | 3.93644629091582 |
| 76 | 225 | 224.031604287978 | 0.968395712021987 |
| 77 | 280 | 276.449079319361 | 3.55092068063914 |
| 78 | 272 | 274.120166637217 | -2.12016663721715 |
| 79 | 252 | 257.505631495046 | -5.50563149504649 |
| 80 | 230 | 238.804865984211 | -8.80486598421086 |
| 81 | 248 | 256.40990835776 | -8.40990835775995 |
| 82 | 259 | 258.355032835679 | 0.644967164320974 |
| 83 | 240 | 237.684714980032 | 2.3152850199684 |
| 84 | 237 | 240.872652118435 | -3.8726521184347 |
| 85 | 252 | 253.375102955871 | -1.37510295587134 |
| 86 | 250 | 251.108730943252 | -1.10873094325166 |
| 87 | 255 | 245.436518813986 | 9.56348118601386 |
| 88 | 255 | 259.152332045134 | -4.1523320451343 |
| 89 | 313 | 308.897137640297 | 4.10286235970273 |
| 90 | 291 | 304.038705444525 | -13.0387054445246 |
| 91 | 271 | 278.552233324085 | -7.55223332408542 |
| 92 | 247 | 256.285965185278 | -9.2859651852782 |
| 93 | 268 | 272.723447776690 | -4.72344777668951 |
| 94 | 283 | 279.576678431684 | 3.42332156831594 |
| 95 | 259 | 260.416008828737 | -1.41600882873661 |
| 96 | 259 | 257.946653779799 | 1.05334622020098 |
| 97 | 267 | 273.618887948337 | -6.61888794833737 |
| 98 | 270 | 267.345936192573 | 2.65406380742729 |
| 99 | 279 | 267.352207134476 | 11.6477928655236 |
| 100 | 269 | 276.089168638958 | -7.08916863895843 |
| 101 | 334 | 326.491288216854 | 7.50871178314645 |
| 102 | 326 | 316.099639276183 | 9.9003607238173 |
| 103 | 301 | 306.584272393367 | -5.58427239336697 |
| 104 | 276 | 284.858772003442 | -8.85877200344248 |
| 105 | 301 | 303.431739945875 | -2.43173994587499 |
| 106 | 313 | 315.043760152929 | -2.04376015292894 |
| 107 | 291 | 290.624916671927 | 0.375083328072833 |
| 108 | 287 | 290.233331739831 | -3.23333173983139 |
| 109 | 289 | 300.148841420857 | -11.1488414208574 |
| 110 | 298 | 294.576800076805 | 3.42319992319545 |
| 111 | 320 | 298.385806384765 | 21.6141936152353 |
| 112 | 312 | 305.733966288152 | 6.26603371184842 |
| 113 | 385 | 370.494417326095 | 14.5055826739048 |
| 114 | 380 | 365.998569903826 | 14.0014300961735 |
| 115 | 351 | 353.647997782839 | -2.64799778283901 |
| 116 | 322 | 333.344670072757 | -11.3446700727569 |
| 117 | 350 | 353.861881279653 | -3.86188127965318 |
| 118 | 363 | 365.601779590946 | -2.60177959094551 |
| 119 | 344 | 342.626539215838 | 1.37346078416221 |
| 120 | 345 | 342.246275704166 | 2.75372429583427 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 353.651685569883 | 339.688594721905 | 367.614776417862 |
| 122 | 361.991584982937 | 345.459781017536 | 378.523388948339 |
| 123 | 372.276364865005 | 353.308218648937 | 391.244511081073 |
| 124 | 361.099945830178 | 339.7729215597 | 382.426970100656 |
| 125 | 425.764370218070 | 402.124177852895 | 449.404562583244 |
| 126 | 412.265237017782 | 386.337554205881 | 438.192919829682 |
| 127 | 384.332867497281 | 356.129958788011 | 412.535776206552 |
| 128 | 361.71823756373 | 331.242991236539 | 392.19348389092 |
| 129 | 391.966603668744 | 359.215138880941 | 424.718068456546 |
| 130 | 406.581109077463 | 371.544535994063 | 441.617682160862 |
| 131 | 386.887583162421 | 349.55323390625 | 424.221932418592 |
| 132 | 386.319389504836 | 346.671704058641 | 425.967074951032 |
