Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 160 | 161 | -1 |
4 | 158 | 160 | -2 |
5 | 156 | 158 | -2 |
6 | 155 | 156 | -1 |
7 | 156 | 155 | 1 |
8 | 158 | 156 | 2 |
9 | 159 | 158 | 1 |
10 | 159 | 159 | 0 |
11 | 160 | 159 | 1 |
12 | 162 | 160 | 2 |
13 | 152 | 162 | -10 |
14 | 157 | 152 | 5 |
15 | 149 | 157 | -8 |
16 | 150 | 149 | 1 |
17 | 144 | 150 | -6 |
18 | 146 | 144 | 2 |
19 | 151 | 146 | 5 |
20 | 148 | 151 | -3 |
21 | 151 | 148 | 3 |
22 | 151 | 151 | 0 |
23 | 145 | 151 | -6 |
24 | 140 | 145 | -5 |
25 | 139 | 140 | -1 |
26 | 144 | 139 | 5 |
27 | 140 | 144 | -4 |
28 | 134 | 140 | -6 |
29 | 130 | 134 | -4 |
30 | 132 | 130 | 2 |
31 | 136 | 132 | 4 |
32 | 137 | 136 | 1 |
33 | 146 | 137 | 9 |
34 | 139 | 146 | -7 |
35 | 132 | 139 | -7 |
36 | 131 | 132 | -1 |
37 | 137 | 131 | 6 |
38 | 145 | 137 | 8 |
39 | 142 | 145 | -3 |
40 | 142 | 142 | 0 |
41 | 137 | 142 | -5 |
42 | 139 | 137 | 2 |
43 | 139 | 139 | 0 |
44 | 139 | 139 | 0 |
45 | 150 | 139 | 11 |
46 | 146 | 150 | -4 |
47 | 138 | 146 | -8 |
48 | 134 | 138 | -4 |
49 | 137 | 134 | 3 |
50 | 143 | 137 | 6 |
51 | 136 | 143 | -7 |
52 | 138 | 136 | 2 |
53 | 129 | 138 | -9 |
54 | 132 | 129 | 3 |
55 | 124 | 132 | -8 |
56 | 132 | 124 | 8 |
57 | 154 | 132 | 22 |
58 | 145 | 154 | -9 |
59 | 136 | 145 | -9 |
60 | 132 | 136 | -4 |
61 | 135 | 132 | 3 |
62 | 148 | 135 | 13 |
63 | 142 | 148 | -6 |
64 | 139 | 142 | -3 |
65 | 126 | 139 | -13 |
66 | 124 | 126 | -2 |
67 | 115 | 124 | -9 |
68 | 126 | 115 | 11 |
69 | 147 | 126 | 21 |
70 | 136 | 147 | -11 |
71 | 127 | 136 | -9 |
72 | 123 | 127 | -4 |
73 | 132 | 123 | 9 |
74 | 156 | 132 | 24 |
75 | 153 | 156 | -3 |
76 | 147 | 153 | -6 |
77 | 129 | 147 | -18 |
78 | 119 | 129 | -10 |
79 | 108 | 119 | -11 |
80 | 121 | 108 | 13 |
81 | 138 | 121 | 17 |
82 | 128 | 138 | -10 |
83 | 123 | 128 | -5 |
84 | 125 | 123 | 2 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 125 | 109.511713598514 | 140.488286401486 |
86 | 125 | 103.096255313099 | 146.903744686901 |
87 | 125 | 98.1735010304477 | 151.826498969552 |
88 | 125 | 94.0234271970276 | 155.976572802972 |
89 | 125 | 90.3671387512912 | 159.632861248709 |
90 | 125 | 87.0616013262713 | 162.938398673729 |
91 | 125 | 84.021845947124 | 165.978154052876 |
92 | 125 | 81.1925106261988 | 168.807489373801 |
93 | 125 | 78.5351407955413 | 171.464859204459 |
94 | 125 | 76.0217379182904 | 173.978262081710 |
95 | 125 | 73.6311653607064 | 176.368834639294 |
96 | 125 | 71.3470020608955 | 178.652997939105 |