| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.385319959597228 |
| beta | 0.126395076856841 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 405 | 404.604433760684 | 0.395566239316054 |
| 14 | 400 | 399.990716313063 | 0.00928368693701032 |
| 15 | 402 | 402.770275293822 | -0.770275293822124 |
| 16 | 404 | 405.045273605086 | -1.04527360508581 |
| 17 | 410 | 411.038402092426 | -1.03840209242622 |
| 18 | 402 | 403.10860548517 | -1.10860548516996 |
| 19 | 400 | 397.306099533256 | 2.6939004667438 |
| 20 | 392 | 400.349974832255 | -8.3499748322547 |
| 21 | 390 | 397.773426181316 | -7.77342618131627 |
| 22 | 397 | 393.748780921141 | 3.25121907885949 |
| 23 | 394 | 394.630494173634 | -0.630494173633792 |
| 24 | 397 | 394.944132494406 | 2.05586750559428 |
| 25 | 400 | 392.052818909084 | 7.94718109091576 |
| 26 | 395 | 389.87967380815 | 5.12032619185021 |
| 27 | 391 | 394.166585508922 | -3.16658550892197 |
| 28 | 392 | 395.249640657892 | -3.24964065789209 |
| 29 | 395 | 400.190686981649 | -5.19068698164949 |
| 30 | 386 | 390.208633337376 | -4.2086333373764 |
| 31 | 385 | 384.98882387509 | 0.0111761249100937 |
| 32 | 372 | 379.519761302911 | -7.51976130291058 |
| 33 | 367 | 376.967156034955 | -9.96715603495471 |
| 34 | 364 | 378.116664632598 | -14.1166646325984 |
| 35 | 364 | 368.31712618489 | -4.31712618489041 |
| 36 | 368 | 367.078888357448 | 0.921111642552262 |
| 37 | 370 | 365.533741905851 | 4.46625809414854 |
| 38 | 357 | 358.274324945194 | -1.27432494519417 |
| 39 | 350 | 352.684623450914 | -2.68462345091416 |
| 40 | 353 | 351.606981379291 | 1.39301862070857 |
| 41 | 353 | 355.074569403655 | -2.07456940365512 |
| 42 | 348 | 344.979384539434 | 3.02061546056621 |
| 43 | 337 | 343.573582111179 | -6.57358211117884 |
| 44 | 322 | 329.052069877344 | -7.05206987734368 |
| 45 | 315 | 323.311994559176 | -8.31199455917624 |
| 46 | 316 | 320.765944176461 | -4.76594417646083 |
| 47 | 317 | 319.265703917486 | -2.26570391748641 |
| 48 | 326 | 320.810368033207 | 5.18963196679306 |
| 49 | 329 | 322.069593990196 | 6.93040600980396 |
| 50 | 310 | 311.331546432876 | -1.33154643287583 |
| 51 | 301 | 303.950633025261 | -2.95063302526131 |
| 52 | 299 | 304.361701015488 | -5.36170101548828 |
| 53 | 300 | 301.850895219406 | -1.85089521940648 |
| 54 | 295 | 293.740490047029 | 1.2595099529708 |
| 55 | 274 | 284.439651568884 | -10.439651568884 |
| 56 | 258 | 266.626976107296 | -8.62697610729606 |
| 57 | 250 | 257.921532865865 | -7.92153286586466 |
| 58 | 247 | 256.140563474066 | -9.1405634740658 |
| 59 | 248 | 252.713429684825 | -4.7134296848252 |
| 60 | 256 | 256.000258710118 | -0.000258710118487215 |
| 61 | 253 | 254.179650712091 | -1.17965071209116 |
| 62 | 237 | 232.693114207109 | 4.30688579289065 |
| 63 | 225 | 224.219122111241 | 0.780877888758567 |
| 64 | 214 | 222.49725549439 | -8.49725549438966 |
| 65 | 221 | 218.694845863751 | 2.30515413624943 |
| 66 | 221 | 212.058729264729 | 8.94127073527062 |
| 67 | 207 | 196.8616825976 | 10.1383174023995 |
| 68 | 194 | 187.429621346776 | 6.57037865322368 |
| 69 | 191 | 185.091090587889 | 5.90890941211131 |
| 70 | 185 | 188.640977102408 | -3.64097710240847 |
| 71 | 180 | 191.073082575933 | -11.0730825759331 |
| 72 | 185 | 195.515639332241 | -10.5156393322413 |
| 73 | 189 | 189.11530756775 | -0.115307567749511 |
| 74 | 179 | 171.66019541497 | 7.33980458502995 |
| 75 | 162 | 162.584038865561 | -0.584038865560757 |
| 76 | 148 | 154.96324233736 | -6.96324233735993 |
| 77 | 152 | 158.796737688916 | -6.79673768891575 |
| 78 | 151 | 152.694077120603 | -1.69407712060283 |
| 79 | 134 | 133.578359025701 | 0.421640974299237 |
| 80 | 122 | 117.179440476513 | 4.82055952348716 |
| 81 | 119 | 112.645169699733 | 6.35483030026651 |
| 82 | 115 | 109.403563445133 | 5.59643655486659 |
| 83 | 113 | 110.18335708669 | 2.81664291330964 |
| 84 | 109 | 120.353711739743 | -11.353711739743 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 120.015674235211 | 109.084749489666 | 130.946598980755 |
| 86 | 107.185460738125 | 95.2693712604991 | 119.101550215751 |
| 87 | 90.0509951095194 | 77.0188799564509 | 103.083110262588 |
| 88 | 78.4030080845916 | 64.1348460048849 | 92.6711701642983 |
| 89 | 85.0299911248548 | 69.4161100469001 | 100.643872202809 |
| 90 | 85.0218356304147 | 67.9619016480715 | 102.081769612758 |
| 91 | 68.2809575938653 | 49.682799964765 | 86.8791152229656 |
| 92 | 54.8245534507639 | 34.6030187901786 | 75.0460881113492 |
| 93 | 49.5421906324489 | 27.6181134444128 | 71.466267820485 |
| 94 | 43.2425556470354 | 19.5418725489075 | 66.9432387451634 |
| 95 | 39.741469927042 | 14.1944751348966 | 65.2884647191874 |
| 96 | 39.56332700865 | 12.1040540049651 | 67.0226000123348 |
