| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.562890117745326 |
| beta | 0.154656619933915 |
| gamma | 0.776809761193287 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 566 | 577.284722222222 | -11.2847222222224 |
| 14 | 561 | 565.620730231435 | -4.62073023143523 |
| 15 | 554 | 554.763910604782 | -0.7639106047817 |
| 16 | 540 | 538.844887969688 | 1.15511203031224 |
| 17 | 526 | 524.731622123252 | 1.26837787674833 |
| 18 | 512 | 511.250864069776 | 0.749135930223645 |
| 19 | 505 | 512.709712313483 | -7.70971231348324 |
| 20 | 554 | 552.610991911792 | 1.38900808820767 |
| 21 | 584 | 569.921437633817 | 14.0785623661826 |
| 22 | 569 | 568.683646174791 | 0.316353825209148 |
| 23 | 540 | 547.018450278338 | -7.0184502783377 |
| 24 | 522 | 526.821910005568 | -4.8219100055685 |
| 25 | 526 | 522.068602797306 | 3.93139720269426 |
| 26 | 527 | 521.054200118192 | 5.94579988180806 |
| 27 | 516 | 518.196449047451 | -2.19644904745087 |
| 28 | 503 | 502.739647337086 | 0.260352662914386 |
| 29 | 489 | 488.700273022805 | 0.299726977195405 |
| 30 | 479 | 474.952719296432 | 4.04728070356828 |
| 31 | 475 | 476.137724903373 | -1.13772490337323 |
| 32 | 524 | 524.141791723735 | -0.141791723734968 |
| 33 | 552 | 546.080054557132 | 5.9199454428682 |
| 34 | 532 | 536.047373222968 | -4.04737322296751 |
| 35 | 511 | 509.525943624173 | 1.47405637582733 |
| 36 | 492 | 495.685508668418 | -3.68550866841815 |
| 37 | 492 | 495.472915080809 | -3.47291508080895 |
| 38 | 493 | 491.258959391848 | 1.74104060815216 |
| 39 | 481 | 483.187904618284 | -2.18790461828382 |
| 40 | 462 | 468.489090665015 | -6.4890906650146 |
| 41 | 457 | 449.995288504688 | 7.00471149531182 |
| 42 | 442 | 441.209488563907 | 0.790511436093254 |
| 43 | 439 | 438.432296730543 | 0.567703269456729 |
| 44 | 488 | 487.514548846835 | 0.485451153164888 |
| 45 | 521 | 511.698801498316 | 9.30119850168381 |
| 46 | 501 | 500.313983495562 | 0.686016504438442 |
| 47 | 485 | 478.872808758883 | 6.12719124111743 |
| 48 | 464 | 466.845786380568 | -2.84578638056831 |
| 49 | 460 | 468.19729790819 | -8.19729790818974 |
| 50 | 467 | 463.702406520997 | 3.29759347900307 |
| 51 | 460 | 455.91691471081 | 4.08308528919019 |
| 52 | 448 | 444.576897952211 | 3.42310204778857 |
| 53 | 443 | 438.396702870293 | 4.60329712970696 |
| 54 | 436 | 428.092371641874 | 7.90762835812563 |
| 55 | 431 | 431.808498521782 | -0.808498521782383 |
| 56 | 484 | 482.531185348927 | 1.46881465107339 |
| 57 | 510 | 512.790981695035 | -2.79098169503459 |
| 58 | 513 | 493.150238761464 | 19.8497612385362 |
| 59 | 503 | 487.48793720496 | 15.5120627950404 |
| 60 | 471 | 481.658010883794 | -10.6580108837944 |
| 61 | 471 | 480.076125558585 | -9.0761255585847 |
| 62 | 476 | 482.194288543984 | -6.19428854398382 |
| 63 | 475 | 471.710945409185 | 3.28905459081528 |
| 64 | 470 | 462.00907496953 | 7.99092503047007 |
| 65 | 461 | 461.507645838878 | -0.507645838877579 |
| 66 | 455 | 451.710320362695 | 3.28967963730537 |
| 67 | 456 | 451.727379268286 | 4.27262073171414 |
| 68 | 517 | 508.385678878754 | 8.61432112124561 |
| 69 | 525 | 544.145477438642 | -19.1454774386422 |
| 70 | 523 | 524.487193281545 | -1.48719328154527 |
| 71 | 519 | 504.984729111186 | 14.0152708888141 |
| 72 | 509 | 488.938959183443 | 20.0610408165567 |
| 73 | 512 | 507.372659187999 | 4.62734081200085 |
| 74 | 519 | 521.562853780641 | -2.56285378064138 |
| 75 | 517 | 520.039778076327 | -3.03977807632668 |
| 76 | 510 | 511.517129536238 | -1.51712953623803 |
| 77 | 509 | 505.095423045566 | 3.90457695443445 |
| 78 | 501 | 501.772598073284 | -0.772598073283518 |
| 79 | 507 | 502.184676938404 | 4.81532306159608 |
| 80 | 569 | 563.01780987215 | 5.98219012784955 |
| 81 | 580 | 590.03611688648 | -10.0361168864803 |
| 82 | 578 | 584.460288781853 | -6.46028878185257 |
| 83 | 565 | 569.948462752511 | -4.94846275251086 |
| 84 | 547 | 546.156225096548 | 0.843774903451617 |
| 85 | 555 | 547.734413280025 | 7.26558671997498 |
| 86 | 562 | 560.400111681626 | 1.59988831837416 |
| 87 | 561 | 560.852548961944 | 0.147451038056374 |
| 88 | 555 | 554.712727410285 | 0.287272589715030 |
| 89 | 544 | 551.376479813433 | -7.37647981343298 |
| 90 | 537 | 539.362281843572 | -2.36228184357162 |
| 91 | 543 | 539.885302340917 | 3.11469765908271 |
| 92 | 594 | 599.117707236083 | -5.11770723608333 |
| 93 | 611 | 612.44298398353 | -1.44298398352976 |
| 94 | 613 | 611.660422746748 | 1.33957725325195 |
| 95 | 611 | 601.473521940319 | 9.5264780596807 |
| 96 | 594 | 588.477073522251 | 5.52292647774937 |
| 97 | 595 | 595.958212719471 | -0.958212719470794 |
| 98 | 591 | 602.443669385527 | -11.4436693855271 |
| 99 | 589 | 594.297985819751 | -5.29798581975149 |
| 100 | 584 | 583.903553214349 | 0.0964467856509827 |
| 101 | 573 | 576.604137836547 | -3.60413783654667 |
| 102 | 567 | 567.490813657033 | -0.490813657033186 |
| 103 | 569 | 570.164782978349 | -1.16478297834851 |
| 104 | 621 | 623.058241317121 | -2.05824131712086 |
| 105 | 629 | 638.485012763114 | -9.48501276311413 |
| 106 | 628 | 632.551993596952 | -4.55199359695166 |
| 107 | 612 | 619.747267657183 | -7.74726765718276 |
| 108 | 595 | 592.083036876764 | 2.91696312323563 |
| 109 | 597 | 592.084614233413 | 4.91538576658729 |
| 110 | 593 | 595.015223981243 | -2.01522398124337 |
| 111 | 590 | 591.783596033258 | -1.78359603325805 |
| 112 | 580 | 583.025111488851 | -3.02511148885139 |
| 113 | 574 | 570.266364095465 | 3.73363590453494 |
| 114 | 573 | 564.533621165878 | 8.46637883412166 |
| 115 | 573 | 570.993511959947 | 2.00648804005334 |
| 116 | 620 | 624.61759998127 | -4.61759998127036 |
| 117 | 626 | 635.108087678417 | -9.10808767841718 |
| 118 | 620 | 630.12118498376 | -10.1211849837600 |
| 119 | 588 | 611.670769216 | -23.6707692159998 |
| 120 | 566 | 575.852306177444 | -9.85230617744355 |
| 121 | 557 | 565.421026998575 | -8.4210269985748 |
| 122 | 561 | 553.406679702836 | 7.59332029716415 |
| 123 | 549 | 551.413999630308 | -2.41399963030847 |
| 124 | 532 | 537.575973156142 | -5.5759731561418 |
| 125 | 526 | 521.151111546567 | 4.84888845343323 |
| 126 | 511 | 513.225029526732 | -2.2250295267321 |
| 127 | 499 | 506.114518842905 | -7.11451884290454 |
| 128 | 555 | 546.202389126884 | 8.79761087311567 |
| 129 | 565 | 557.734396870765 | 7.26560312923539 |
| 130 | 542 | 558.060471976212 | -16.0604719762122 |
| 131 | 527 | 527.589457089726 | -0.589457089726466 |
| 132 | 510 | 507.387993626657 | 2.61200637334269 |
| 133 | 514 | 503.476503227935 | 10.5234967720652 |
| 134 | 517 | 508.230499698242 | 8.76950030175811 |
| 135 | 508 | 504.271241317975 | 3.72875868202453 |
| 136 | 493 | 494.121376006402 | -1.12137600640199 |
| 137 | 490 | 485.435646356936 | 4.56435364306395 |
| 138 | 469 | 476.614583647384 | -7.61458364738417 |
| 139 | 478 | 466.008066852632 | 11.9919331473678 |
| 140 | 528 | 525.115012099064 | 2.8849879009357 |
| 141 | 534 | 535.145205022292 | -1.14520502229232 |
| 142 | 518 | 524.430859087689 | -6.43085908768876 |
| 143 | 506 | 507.086100147311 | -1.08610014731079 |
| 144 | 502 | 490.101546930038 | 11.8984530699624 |
| 145 | 516 | 497.321495401721 | 18.6785045982786 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 146 | 509.998058714981 | 496.139657338332 | 523.856460091631 |
| 147 | 502.555284399856 | 486.026979372301 | 519.08358942741 |
| 148 | 491.499401708899 | 472.069960130277 | 510.928843287521 |
| 149 | 488.312834222588 | 465.775725346407 | 510.849943098768 |
| 150 | 475.327174772423 | 449.494054843463 | 501.160294701384 |
| 151 | 478.867139664298 | 449.563545768332 | 508.170733560265 |
| 152 | 530.290606951614 | 497.353031824949 | 563.22818207828 |
| 153 | 539.236197152081 | 502.510037617764 | 575.962356686397 |
| 154 | 529.379206357434 | 488.717277962108 | 570.04113475276 |
| 155 | 520.036451135329 | 475.297880258004 | 564.775022012653 |
| 156 | 510.734041243188 | 461.783416191436 | 559.68466629494 |
| 157 | 515.184694152273 | 461.891398925546 | 568.477989378999 |
