Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.886472179761465 |
beta | 0.0337932685980229 |
gamma | 0 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.01 |
4 | 0.6 | 0.589164289722368 | 0.0108357102776319 |
5 | 0.6 | 0.599394016480308 | 0.00060598351969221 |
6 | 0.61 | 0.600573528383315 | 0.00942647161668464 |
7 | 0.62 | 0.60985454445022 | 0.0101454555497803 |
8 | 0.61 | 0.620076845077982 | -0.0100768450779816 |
9 | 0.62 | 0.612070768831652 | 0.00792923116834776 |
10 | 0.62 | 0.620264112576957 | -0.000264112576957021 |
11 | 0.62 | 0.621186373067169 | -0.00118637306716851 |
12 | 0.63 | 0.621255535358543 | 0.00874446464145717 |
13 | 0.63 | 0.630390065112912 | -0.000390065112912064 |
14 | 0.63 | 0.63141540326519 | -0.00141540326519018 |
15 | 0.63 | 0.631489406728742 | -0.00148940672874154 |
16 | 0.63 | 0.631453190332364 | -0.00145319033236435 |
17 | 0.63 | 0.631405545842613 | -0.00140554584261288 |
18 | 0.63 | 0.631358031222423 | -0.00135803122242328 |
19 | 0.63 | 0.631311954731659 | -0.00131195473165857 |
20 | 0.64 | 0.631267421812464 | 0.00873257818753559 |
21 | 0.63 | 0.640388687917373 | -0.0103886879173729 |
22 | 0.63 | 0.632248271810432 | -0.00224827181043219 |
23 | 0.63 | 0.631256757101923 | -0.00125675710192319 |
24 | 0.63 | 0.631106544186638 | -0.00110654418663758 |
25 | 0.63 | 0.63105634232723 | -0.00105634232722962 |
26 | 0.64 | 0.631018998391679 | 0.00898100160832072 |
27 | 0.65 | 0.640148522615093 | 0.009851477384907 |
28 | 0.65 | 0.650344818061202 | -0.000344818061202123 |
29 | 0.65 | 0.651492051614606 | -0.00149205161460575 |
30 | 0.65 | 0.651577597458647 | -0.00157759745864694 |
31 | 0.65 | 0.651540049532173 | -0.00154004953217313 |
32 | 0.66 | 0.651489651853689 | 0.00851034814631113 |
33 | 0.65 | 0.660603594846032 | -0.0106035948460322 |
34 | 0.66 | 0.652455909439821 | 0.0075440905601788 |
35 | 0.66 | 0.660621639028606 | -0.000621639028606125 |
36 | 0.66 | 0.661530054198104 | -0.00153005419810348 |
37 | 0.66 | 0.66158734907608 | -0.00158734907607960 |
38 | 0.68 | 0.661546301751829 | 0.018453698248171 |
39 | 0.69 | 0.679823898942633 | 0.0101761010573672 |
40 | 0.7 | 0.691068479856101 | 0.00893152014389886 |
41 | 0.71 | 0.701477334109758 | 0.00852266589024209 |
42 | 0.71 | 0.711779062175382 | -0.00177906217538160 |
43 | 0.7 | 0.712895299910973 | -0.0128952999109733 |
44 | 0.7 | 0.703771000327008 | -0.00377100032700795 |
45 | 0.7 | 0.702622171409816 | -0.00262217140981624 |
46 | 0.7 | 0.702413195522262 | -0.00241319552226182 |
47 | 0.71 | 0.702317179347802 | 0.0076828206521975 |
48 | 0.7 | 0.711401153302326 | -0.0114011533023264 |
49 | 0.7 | 0.703226173283415 | -0.00322617328341501 |
50 | 0.7 | 0.702201439817833 | -0.00220143981783349 |
51 | 0.69 | 0.702019155985391 | -0.0120191559853908 |
52 | 0.7 | 0.692773684540031 | 0.00722631545996899 |
53 | 0.69 | 0.700805265349972 | -0.0108052653499719 |
54 | 0.69 | 0.692528660323049 | -0.00252866032304933 |
55 | 0.69 | 0.691513284842829 | -0.00151328484282931 |
56 | 0.7 | 0.691352678317844 | 0.00864732168215643 |
57 | 0.7 | 0.70045821282786 | -0.000458212827860405 |
58 | 0.71 | 0.701478217726296 | 0.00852178227370437 |
59 | 0.71 | 0.710714023719756 | -0.000714023719755819 |
60 | 0.71 | 0.711741154781944 | -0.00174115478194403 |
61 | 0.72 | 0.711805603320063 | 0.0081943966799366 |
62 | 0.73 | 0.72092311966053 | 0.00907688033947007 |
63 | 0.74 | 0.73109484743492 | 0.00890515256507995 |
64 | 0.74 | 0.741381113122175 | -0.00138111312217459 |
65 | 0.74 | 0.742507516724857 | -0.00250751672485694 |
66 | 0.74 | 0.742560277712423 | -0.0025602777124234 |
67 | 0.75 | 0.742489569844225 | 0.00751043015577502 |
68 | 0.75 | 0.751571252729267 | -0.00157125272926661 |
69 | 0.76 | 0.752555206699366 | 0.00744479330063397 |
70 | 0.76 | 0.76175465677435 | -0.00175465677435016 |
71 | 0.76 | 0.762746486399902 | -0.00274648639990160 |
72 | 0.76 | 0.76277681073222 | -0.00277681073222025 |
73 | 0.76 | 0.76269706904472 | -0.00269706904472 |
74 | 0.77 | 0.762607220607092 | 0.00739277939290839 |
75 | 0.77 | 0.77168320606552 | -0.00168320606551986 |
76 | 0.78 | 0.772663159456334 | 0.00733684054366612 |
77 | 0.78 | 0.781858921435934 | -0.00185892143593436 |
78 | 0.78 | 0.782847208925227 | -0.00284720892522661 |
79 | 0.78 | 0.782874113802748 | -0.00287411380274794 |
80 | 0.78 | 0.782791069024107 | -0.00279106902410720 |
81 | 0.78 | 0.782698029655867 | -0.00269802965586652 |
82 | 0.78 | 0.7826066427847 | -0.00260664278470057 |
83 | 0.8 | 0.78251818117546 | 0.0174818188245400 |
84 | 0.8 | 0.800761281135636 | -0.000761281135635894 |
85 | 0.8 | 0.802809574967513 | -0.00280957496751277 |
86 | 0.81 | 0.802957947447208 | 0.007042052552792 |
87 | 0.81 | 0.81205047095595 | -0.00205047095595046 |
88 | 0.81 | 0.813021299797461 | -0.00302129979746135 |
89 | 0.8 | 0.813041007428625 | -0.0130410074286245 |
90 | 0.81 | 0.803787856242209 | 0.006212143757791 |
91 | 0.81 | 0.811788183856672 | -0.00178818385667145 |
92 | 0.81 | 0.812642875359234 | -0.00264287535923347 |
93 | 0.8 | 0.812660734553821 | -0.0126607345538209 |
94 | 0.82 | 0.803418765274025 | 0.0165812347259753 |
95 | 0.83 | 0.820595708849878 | 0.00940429115012165 |
96 | 0.83 | 0.831692214008382 | -0.00169221400838204 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
97 | 0.83290128274742 | 0.819525552674947 | 0.846277012819892 |
98 | 0.83561045212709 | 0.817467507815744 | 0.853753396438437 |
99 | 0.838319621506761 | 0.816197085581957 | 0.860442157431566 |
100 | 0.841028790886432 | 0.815339264447321 | 0.866718317325543 |
101 | 0.843737960266103 | 0.814735838647774 | 0.872740081884432 |
102 | 0.846447129645774 | 0.814303054357237 | 0.87859120493431 |
103 | 0.849156299025445 | 0.813990570917623 | 0.884322027133266 |
104 | 0.851865468405116 | 0.813765537417332 | 0.8899653993929 |
105 | 0.854574637784786 | 0.813605239311874 | 0.895544036257699 |
106 | 0.857283807164457 | 0.813493281310758 | 0.901074333018157 |
107 | 0.859992976544128 | 0.813417430572848 | 0.906568522515408 |
108 | 0.862702145923799 | 0.813368316693895 | 0.912035975153703 |