| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.784666830625502 |
| beta | 0.0378641310094148 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 10872 | 10741.6474358974 | 130.352564102563 |
| 14 | 10296 | 10265.3033473940 | 30.6966526059896 |
| 15 | 10383 | 10392.5495905495 | -9.54959054953906 |
| 16 | 10431 | 10462.5155496928 | -31.5155496927582 |
| 17 | 10574 | 10600.8508660457 | -26.8508660456828 |
| 18 | 10653 | 10674.5486461629 | -21.5486461629444 |
| 19 | 10805 | 10647.0583430597 | 157.941656940338 |
| 20 | 10872 | 11025.8506887781 | -153.850688778106 |
| 21 | 10625 | 10837.2522401850 | -212.252240185027 |
| 22 | 10407 | 10547.0218628396 | -140.021862839627 |
| 23 | 10463 | 10142.9747819922 | 320.025218007779 |
| 24 | 10556 | 10749.5862347794 | -193.58623477943 |
| 25 | 10646 | 10866.6264595966 | -220.626459596553 |
| 26 | 10702 | 10078.5323568813 | 623.467643118718 |
| 27 | 11353 | 10664.9624480266 | 688.037551973386 |
| 28 | 11346 | 11301.0201860693 | 44.9798139306604 |
| 29 | 11451 | 11526.1043572766 | -75.1043572765575 |
| 30 | 11964 | 11587.3683400464 | 376.631659953608 |
| 31 | 12574 | 11947.0847311115 | 626.915268888459 |
| 32 | 13031 | 12676.7770273560 | 354.222972644035 |
| 33 | 13812 | 12939.4177222090 | 872.582277791016 |
| 34 | 14544 | 13613.3522118249 | 930.647788175129 |
| 35 | 14931 | 14277.6754710051 | 653.324528994903 |
| 36 | 14886 | 15174.3088032397 | -288.308803239657 |
| 37 | 16005 | 15347.4769841290 | 657.523015871013 |
| 38 | 17064 | 15592.5658364197 | 1471.43416358034 |
| 39 | 15168 | 17045.8316060251 | -1877.83160602512 |
| 40 | 16050 | 15641.3918566917 | 408.608143308275 |
| 41 | 15839 | 16248.0752671819 | -409.075267181917 |
| 42 | 15137 | 16256.7648398332 | -1119.76483983325 |
| 43 | 14954 | 15563.9516028764 | -609.951602876434 |
| 44 | 15648 | 15295.3962878081 | 352.603712191883 |
| 45 | 15305 | 15699.3387386149 | -394.338738614941 |
| 46 | 15579 | 15384.9769985834 | 194.023001416555 |
| 47 | 16348 | 15383.0039047665 | 964.996095233517 |
| 48 | 15928 | 16302.1162564163 | -374.116256416339 |
| 49 | 16171 | 16589.7593055656 | -418.759305565622 |
| 50 | 15937 | 16111.7462231936 | -174.746223193579 |
| 51 | 15713 | 15449.3506519834 | 263.649348016603 |
| 52 | 15594 | 16178.4810701130 | -584.481070112979 |
| 53 | 15683 | 15761.2153280806 | -78.2153280806397 |
| 54 | 16438 | 15817.6841453827 | 620.315854617282 |
| 55 | 17032 | 16592.9327386944 | 439.067261305561 |
| 56 | 17696 | 17378.8434581587 | 317.156541841337 |
| 57 | 17745 | 17617.1426840708 | 127.857315929232 |
| 58 | 19394 | 17877.7519693035 | 1516.24803069650 |
| 59 | 20148 | 19157.1126501077 | 990.887349892266 |
| 60 | 20108 | 19886.7665234069 | 221.233476593101 |
| 61 | 18584 | 20728.2167249392 | -2144.21672493916 |
| 62 | 18441 | 18993.8430463573 | -552.843046357306 |
| 63 | 18391 | 18162.9395133201 | 228.060486679875 |
| 64 | 19178 | 18714.2275167589 | 463.772483241082 |
| 65 | 18079 | 19292.3653460815 | -1213.36534608155 |
| 66 | 18483 | 18638.6683680733 | -155.668368073348 |
| 67 | 19644 | 18773.0758289109 | 870.924171089078 |
| 68 | 19195 | 19891.5064846986 | -696.506484698646 |
| 69 | 19650 | 19283.4464530862 | 366.55354691379 |
| 70 | 20830 | 20027.2020641329 | 802.797935867071 |
| 71 | 23595 | 20609.3001561035 | 2985.69984389645 |
| 72 | 22937 | 22773.4381660234 | 163.561833976615 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 23093.5149342822 | 21591.3385559473 | 24595.6913126171 |
| 74 | 23481.2582551373 | 21543.9685187548 | 25418.5479915197 |
| 75 | 23365.6778448964 | 21050.3294615843 | 25681.0262282085 |
| 76 | 23895.3662063606 | 21233.8332796158 | 26556.8991331053 |
| 77 | 23841.2699749294 | 20853.6566326287 | 26828.8833172302 |
| 78 | 24496.2839753683 | 21196.1249135615 | 27796.4430371752 |
| 79 | 25107.3898822501 | 21504.1426830112 | 28710.6370814891 |
| 80 | 25312.5308431626 | 21412.9361298410 | 29212.1255564841 |
| 81 | 25608.2175727948 | 21417.1104052876 | 29799.3247403019 |
| 82 | 26275.7072277587 | 21796.5337246225 | 30754.8807308949 |
| 83 | 26791.4944501334 | 22026.6575503595 | 31556.3313499074 |
| 84 | 26010.0124453628 | 20961.1126316848 | 31058.9122590408 |
