| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.00263339025737825 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 731993 | 461683 | 270310 |
| 3 | 522673 | 462394.831720472 | 60278.1682795281 |
| 4 | 572709 | 462553.567661552 | 110155.432338448 |
| 5 | 382812 | 462843.649903869 | -80031.6499038692 |
| 6 | 942567 | 462632.895336730 | 479934.10466327 |
| 7 | 802385 | 463896.749132134 | 338488.250867866 |
| 8 | 272643 | 464788.120794207 | -192145.120794207 |
| 9 | 992660 | 464282.127705104 | 528377.872294896 |
| 10 | 672651 | 465673.55284622 | 206977.44715378 |
| 11 | 122826 | 466218.605239052 | -343392.605239052 |
| 12 | 493878 | 465314.31849796 | 28563.6815020404 |
| 13 | 801948 | 465389.537818542 | 336558.462181458 |
| 14 | 742156 | 466275.827593889 | 275880.172406111 |
| 15 | 612673 | 467002.327752107 | 145670.672247893 |
| 16 | 662804 | 467385.93548119 | 195418.064518810 |
| 17 | 572750 | 467900.54750841 | 104849.452491590 |
| 18 | 202510 | 468176.657035093 | -265666.657035093 |
| 19 | 652313 | 467477.053048746 | 184835.946951254 |
| 20 | 492663 | 467963.798230661 | 24699.2017693392 |
| 21 | 292397 | 468028.840867965 | -175631.840867965 |
| 22 | 382618 | 467566.333689338 | -84948.3336893381 |
| 23 | 872790 | 467342.63157502 | 405447.36842498 |
| 24 | 913865 | 468410.33272491 | 445454.66727509 |
| 25 | 221989 | 469583.388705816 | -247594.388705816 |
| 26 | 842162 | 468931.376054817 | 373230.623945183 |
| 27 | 142783 | 469914.237943669 | -327131.237943669 |
| 28 | 112683 | 469052.773728784 | -356369.773728784 |
| 29 | 862759 | 468114.313038623 | 394644.686961377 |
| 30 | 392482 | 469153.566512393 | -76671.5665123927 |
| 31 | 602262 | 468951.660356121 | 133310.339643879 |
| 32 | 542540 | 469302.718505747 | 73237.281494253 |
| 33 | 982375 | 469495.580849311 | 512879.419150689 |
| 34 | 112533 | 470846.192514912 | -358313.192514912 |
| 35 | 622742 | 469902.614044653 | 152839.385955347 |
| 36 | 883970 | 470305.099794572 | 413664.900205428 |
| 37 | 562056 | 471394.440912592 | 90661.559087408 |
| 38 | 322091 | 471633.188179012 | -149542.188179012 |
| 39 | 832619 | 471239.385237594 | 361379.614762406 |
| 40 | 82723 | 472191.038794324 | -389468.038794324 |
| 41 | 872811 | 471165.417455403 | 401645.582544597 |
| 42 | 562534 | 472223.107019395 | 90310.8929806048 |
| 43 | 112447 | 472460.930845105 | -360013.930845105 |
| 44 | 342593 | 471512.873667097 | -128919.873667097 |
| 45 | 422622 | 471173.3773278 | -48551.3773278001 |
| 46 | 682787 | 471045.522603763 | 211741.477396237 |
| 47 | 602944 | 471603.120547421 | 131340.879452579 |
| 48 | 84298 | 471948.992339767 | -387650.992339767 |
| 49 | 942258 | 470928.155993276 | 471329.844006724 |
| 50 | 722391 | 472169.351412495 | 250221.648587505 |
| 51 | 662901 | 472828.282664071 | 190072.717335929 |
| 52 | 3007 | 473328.818306096 | -470321.818306096 |
| 53 | 452988 | 472090.277411937 | -19102.2774119367 |
| 54 | 12759 | 472039.973660706 | -459280.973660706 |
| 55 | 942577 | 470830.507619269 | 471746.492380731 |
| 56 | 52626 | 472072.800236257 | -419446.800236257 |
| 57 | 882755 | 470968.233119026 | 411786.766880974 |
| 58 | 22968 | 472052.628379048 | -449084.628379048 |
| 59 | 433067 | 470870.013293936 | -37803.0132939362 |
| 60 | 904437 | 470770.463207028 | 433666.536792972 |
| 61 | 812315 | 471912.47643997 | 340402.52356003 |
| 62 | 32428 | 472808.8891291 | -440380.8891291 |
| 63 | 53073 | 471649.194386132 | -418576.194386132 |
| 64 | 403145 | 470546.919913865 | -67401.9199138649 |
| 65 | 243133 | 470369.424354635 | -227236.424354635 |
| 66 | 313018 | 469771.022168618 | -156753.022168618 |
| 67 | 32720 | 469358.230287225 | -436638.230287225 |
| 68 | 922852 | 468208.391425587 | 454643.608574413 |
| 69 | 192947 | 469405.645474987 | -276458.645474987 |
| 70 | 693108 | 468677.621971425 | 224430.378028575 |
| 71 | 33335 | 469268.634742385 | -435933.634742385 |
| 72 | 944749 | 468120.651355791 | 476628.348644209 |
| 73 | 962536 | 469375.799805501 | 493160.200194499 |
| 74 | 292541 | 470674.48307202 | -178133.483072020 |
| 75 | 953227 | 470205.388093185 | 483021.611906815 |
| 76 | 193417 | 471477.372500084 | -278060.372500084 |
| 77 | 73378 | 470745.131024179 | -397367.131024179 |
| 78 | 433219 | 469698.708292737 | -36479.7082927374 |
| 79 | 962953 | 469602.642984327 | 493350.357015673 |
| 80 | 632986 | 470901.827007966 | 162084.172992034 |
| 81 | 333186 | 471328.657889999 | -138142.657889999 |
| 82 | 733212 | 470964.874360583 | 262247.125639417 |
| 83 | 463421 | 471655.473386267 | -8234.47338626737 |
| 84 | 495024 | 471633.788804277 | 23390.2111957227 |
| 85 | 752596 | 471695.384358558 | 280900.615641442 |
| 86 | 22640 | 472435.10530308 | -449795.10530308 |
| 87 | 123421 | 471250.619254958 | -347829.619254958 |
| 88 | 243440 | 470334.648124385 | -226894.648124385 |
| 89 | 623653 | 469737.145968563 | 153915.854031437 |
| 90 | 413304 | 470142.466479025 | -56838.4664790252 |
| 91 | 852981 | 469992.788615155 | 382988.211384845 |
| 92 | 613232 | 471001.346039707 | 142230.653960293 |
| 93 | 493203 | 471375.894858146 | 21827.1051418538 |
| 94 | 253344 | 471433.374144174 | -218089.374144174 |
| 95 | 803665 | 470859.059711065 | 332805.940288935 |
| 96 | 574904 | 471735.467631819 | 103168.532368181 |
| 97 | 132570 | 472007.150639825 | -339437.150639825 |
| 98 | 132785 | 471113.280154338 | -338328.280154338 |
| 99 | 393406 | 470222.329757584 | -76816.3297575843 |
| 100 | 333452 | 470020.042383193 | -136568.042383193 |
| 101 | 583642 | 469660.405430912 | 113981.594569088 |
| 102 | 893230 | 469960.563451571 | 423269.436548429 |
| 103 | 272991 | 471075.197062023 | -198084.197062023 |
| 104 | 373159 | 470553.56406734 | -97394.5640673396 |
| 105 | 133072 | 470297.086171203 | -337225.086171203 |
| 106 | 653091 | 469409.040914736 | 183681.959085264 |
| 107 | 373307 | 469892.747196248 | -96585.7471962476 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 108 | 469638.399230579 | -117973.028170112 | 1057249.82663127 |
| 109 | 469638.399230579 | -117975.065634063 | 1057251.86409522 |
| 110 | 469638.399230579 | -117977.103090949 | 1057253.90155211 |
| 111 | 469638.399230579 | -117979.140540771 | 1057255.93900193 |
| 112 | 469638.399230579 | -117981.177983528 | 1057257.97644469 |
| 113 | 469638.399230579 | -117983.215419221 | 1057260.01388038 |
| 114 | 469638.399230579 | -117985.252847849 | 1057262.05130901 |
| 115 | 469638.399230579 | -117987.290269414 | 1057264.08873057 |
| 116 | 469638.399230579 | -117989.327683914 | 1057266.12614507 |
| 117 | 469638.399230579 | -117991.365091350 | 1057268.16355251 |
| 118 | 469638.399230579 | -117993.402491722 | 1057270.20095288 |
| 119 | 469638.399230579 | -117995.43988503 | 1057272.23834619 |
