| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.341994826009028 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.441083878543025 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1596 | 1625.57291666667 | -29.5729166666674 |
| 14 | 1819 | 1834.00079884334 | -15.0007988433376 |
| 15 | 1416 | 1422.87060325291 | -6.87060325291395 |
| 16 | 1521 | 1530.14589248886 | -9.14589248885636 |
| 17 | 1638 | 1631.3097112451 | 6.69028875490062 |
| 18 | 1543 | 1518.38942205045 | 24.6105779495513 |
| 19 | 1623 | 1652.88944570762 | -29.8894457076201 |
| 20 | 1530 | 1375.70907659000 | 154.290923409997 |
| 21 | 1336 | 1440.51744076304 | -104.517440763044 |
| 22 | 1700 | 1755.77301679438 | -55.7730167943778 |
| 23 | 1615 | 1264.61560028645 | 350.384399713548 |
| 24 | 1494 | 1478.15358543610 | 15.8464145639020 |
| 25 | 1578 | 1719.94820106751 | -141.948201067513 |
| 26 | 1607 | 1894.17366293501 | -287.173662935014 |
| 27 | 1767 | 1392.32142721807 | 374.678572781928 |
| 28 | 1505 | 1629.4241908755 | -124.424190875499 |
| 29 | 1938 | 1695.75964960590 | 242.240350394098 |
| 30 | 1862 | 1668.59736639099 | 193.402633609013 |
| 31 | 2571 | 1845.00555954260 | 725.994440457398 |
| 32 | 2082 | 1879.78924533455 | 202.210754665452 |
| 33 | 1781 | 1885.87057554576 | -104.870575545763 |
| 34 | 1869 | 2215.15274231588 | -346.152742315884 |
| 35 | 1785 | 1742.56825250011 | 42.4317474998882 |
| 36 | 1682 | 1753.69323316395 | -71.6932331639482 |
| 37 | 1556 | 1919.75214710064 | -363.752147100644 |
| 38 | 2080 | 1975.97222623882 | 104.027773761181 |
| 39 | 2027 | 1800.00185531290 | 226.998144687097 |
| 40 | 1887 | 1841.74134935184 | 45.2586506481609 |
| 41 | 1935 | 2072.52651897017 | -137.526518970166 |
| 42 | 1798 | 1901.31149345085 | -103.311493450849 |
| 43 | 1590 | 2130.82202598402 | -540.822025984016 |
| 44 | 1592 | 1580.34042830217 | 11.6595716978263 |
| 45 | 1387 | 1432.12834434283 | -45.1283443428267 |
| 46 | 1849 | 1711.81340097912 | 137.186599020876 |
| 47 | 1470 | 1517.30946879319 | -47.3094687931896 |
| 48 | 1437 | 1464.62029991883 | -27.6202999188304 |
| 49 | 1500 | 1560.98607159841 | -60.9860715984094 |
| 50 | 2081 | 1856.51690922318 | 224.483090776825 |
| 51 | 1552 | 1757.43199740569 | -205.431997405693 |
| 52 | 1586 | 1598.53537199705 | -12.5353719970512 |
| 53 | 1914 | 1756.50454450728 | 157.495455492719 |
| 54 | 1639 | 1696.11592197115 | -57.115921971153 |
| 55 | 1633 | 1814.44402403782 | -181.444024037822 |
| 56 | 1693 | 1547.21760211804 | 145.782397881960 |
| 57 | 1224 | 1428.39296301991 | -204.392963019913 |
| 58 | 1417 | 1706.52460815152 | -289.524608151518 |
| 59 | 1577 | 1312.54034717415 | 264.459652825853 |
| 60 | 1225 | 1372.18910006863 | -147.189100068626 |
| 61 | 1510 | 1417.97903017788 | 92.0209698221165 |
| 62 | 1515 | 1848.69076203581 | -333.690762035807 |
| 63 | 1393 | 1433.93667103901 | -40.9366710390102 |
| 64 | 1455 | 1387.28203970624 | 67.7179602937615 |
| 65 | 1532 | 1622.04641448273 | -90.046414482727 |
| 66 | 1268 | 1414.71191827773 | -146.711918277729 |
| 67 | 1365 | 1466.31422751109 | -101.314227511086 |
| 68 | 1282 | 1321.46449716409 | -39.4644971640889 |
| 69 | 1063 | 1037.65306648560 | 25.3469335144041 |
| 70 | 1296 | 1369.64634416173 | -73.6463441617313 |
| 71 | 1639 | 1210.27721722589 | 428.722782774113 |
| 72 | 1247 | 1206.62803964790 | 40.3719603521026 |
| 73 | 1515 | 1385.99013006081 | 129.009869939194 |
| 74 | 1547 | 1705.79522799096 | -158.795227990956 |
| 75 | 1299 | 1435.82212716730 | -136.822127167295 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 76 | 1387.91059440295 | 988.15704730923 | 1787.66414149667 |
| 77 | 1553.72695899882 | 1131.24202543981 | 1976.21189255783 |
| 78 | 1360.74153128029 | 916.687323153951 | 1804.79573940662 |
| 79 | 1475.69457778778 | 1011.07133210904 | 1940.31782346653 |
| 80 | 1383.44477486989 | 899.125271757116 | 1867.76427798266 |
| 81 | 1131.94057435205 | 628.695105653376 | 1635.18604305072 |
| 82 | 1426.53397101763 | 905.04895451563 | 1948.01898751963 |
| 83 | 1438.15685454201 | 899.049033131078 | 1977.26467595294 |
| 84 | 1175.17351834387 | 619.001005739384 | 1731.34603094836 |
| 85 | 1366.45447292564 | 793.72549299959 | 1939.18345285169 |
| 86 | 1558.60761374451 | 969.787518029801 | 2147.42770945922 |
| 87 | 1349.31903262688 | 744.836009053984 | 1953.80205619977 |
