Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999924940543429 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 0 |
3 | 3.43 | 3.42 | 0.0100000000000002 |
4 | 3.47 | 3.42999924940543 | 0.0400007505945656 |
5 | 3.51 | 3.4699969975654 | 0.0400030024346019 |
6 | 3.52 | 3.50999699739638 | 0.0100030026036242 |
7 | 3.52 | 3.51999924918006 | 7.50819939554503e-07 |
8 | 3.52 | 3.51999999994364 | 5.63562529976025e-11 |
9 | 3.52 | 3.52000000000000 | 4.44089209850063e-15 |
10 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 0 |
11 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 0 |
12 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 0 |
13 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 0 |
14 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 0 |
15 | 3.58 | 3.52 | 0.06 |
16 | 3.6 | 3.57999549643261 | 0.0200045035673941 |
17 | 3.61 | 3.59999849847283 | 0.0100015015271664 |
18 | 3.61 | 3.60999924929273 | 7.50707269681072e-07 |
19 | 3.61 | 3.60999999994365 | 5.63478153026153e-11 |
20 | 3.63 | 3.61000000000000 | 0.0200000000000045 |
21 | 3.68 | 3.62999849881087 | 0.0500015011891315 |
22 | 3.69 | 3.67999624691449 | 0.0100037530855066 |
23 | 3.69 | 3.68999924912373 | 7.50876270050327e-07 |
24 | 3.69 | 3.68999999994364 | 5.63602498004911e-11 |
25 | 3.69 | 3.69000000000000 | 4.44089209850063e-15 |
26 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 0 |
27 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 0 |
28 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 0 |
29 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 0 |
30 | 3.78 | 3.69 | 0.0899999999999999 |
31 | 3.79 | 3.77999324464891 | 0.0100067553510916 |
32 | 3.79 | 3.78999924889838 | 7.51101618678973e-07 |
33 | 3.8 | 3.78999999994362 | 0.0100000000563769 |
34 | 3.8 | 3.79999924940543 | 7.50594570053664e-07 |
35 | 3.8 | 3.79999999994366 | 5.63393776076282e-11 |
36 | 3.8 | 3.80000000000000 | 4.44089209850063e-15 |
37 | 3.81 | 3.8 | 0.0100000000000002 |
38 | 3.95 | 3.80999924940543 | 0.140000750594566 |
39 | 3.99 | 3.94998949161974 | 0.0400105083802593 |
40 | 4 | 3.98999699683298 | 0.0100030031670157 |
41 | 4.06 | 3.99999924918002 | 0.0600007508199814 |
42 | 4.16 | 4.05999549637625 | 0.100004503623751 |
43 | 4.19 | 4.1599924937163 | 0.0300075062836971 |
44 | 4.2 | 4.18999774765289 | 0.0100022523471148 |
45 | 4.2 | 4.19999924923637 | 7.50763625489981e-07 |
46 | 4.2 | 4.19999999994365 | 5.63522561947138e-11 |
47 | 4.2 | 4.20000000000000 | 4.44089209850063e-15 |
48 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 0 |
49 | 4.23 | 4.2 | 0.0300000000000002 |
50 | 4.38 | 4.2299977482163 | 0.150002251783697 |
51 | 4.43 | 4.3799887409125 | 0.050011259087503 |
52 | 4.44 | 4.42999624618207 | 0.0100037538179301 |
53 | 4.44 | 4.43999924912367 | 7.50876325561478e-07 |
54 | 4.44 | 4.43999999994364 | 5.63602498004911e-11 |
55 | 4.44 | 4.44 | 4.44089209850063e-15 |
56 | 4.44 | 4.44 | 0 |
57 | 4.45 | 4.44 | 0.00999999999999979 |
58 | 4.45 | 4.44999924940543 | 7.50594566056861e-07 |
59 | 4.45 | 4.44999999994366 | 5.63389335184183e-11 |
60 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 4.44089209850063e-15 |
61 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 0 |
62 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 0 |
63 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 0 |
64 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 0 |
65 | 4.46 | 4.45 | 0.00999999999999979 |
66 | 4.46 | 4.45999924940543 | 7.50594566056861e-07 |
67 | 4.46 | 4.45999999994366 | 5.63389335184183e-11 |
68 | 4.48 | 4.46000000000000 | 0.0200000000000049 |
69 | 4.58 | 4.47999849881087 | 0.100001501189131 |
70 | 4.67 | 4.57999249394166 | 0.0900075060583356 |
71 | 4.68 | 4.66999324408551 | 0.0100067559144916 |
72 | 4.68 | 4.67999924889834 | 7.51101660867448e-07 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 4.67999999994362 | 4.61489274289132 | 4.74510725699593 |
74 | 4.67999999994362 | 4.58792788951747 | 4.77207211036978 |
75 | 4.67999999994362 | 4.56723656564076 | 4.79276343424649 |
76 | 4.67999999994362 | 4.54979281614324 | 4.81020718374401 |
77 | 4.67999999994362 | 4.53442448926041 | 4.82557551062684 |
78 | 4.67999999994362 | 4.52053041692501 | 4.83946958296223 |
79 | 4.67999999994362 | 4.50775347166052 | 4.85224652822672 |
80 | 4.67999999994362 | 4.49586096252072 | 4.86413903736652 |
81 | 4.67999999994362 | 4.48469126050659 | 4.87530873938066 |
82 | 4.67999999994362 | 4.47412668380495 | 4.8858733160823 |
83 | 4.67999999994362 | 4.46407839172577 | 4.89592160816148 |
84 | 4.67999999994362 | 4.45447736362337 | 4.90552263626387 |