| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.953329031569823 |
| beta | 0.626323202133583 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 5 | 3833.3 | 3808.76358713235 | 24.5364128676538 |
| 6 | 3844.8 | 3861.02704115044 | -16.2270411504383 |
| 7 | 3851.3 | 3861.14357370245 | -9.84357370245107 |
| 8 | 3851.8 | 3862.39634606019 | -10.5963460601874 |
| 9 | 3854.1 | 3852.25156282480 | 1.84843717520471 |
| 10 | 3858.4 | 3860.20611213384 | -1.80611213384418 |
| 11 | 3861.6 | 3862.19267532288 | -0.592675322885043 |
| 12 | 3856.3 | 3865.57620559282 | -9.2762055928174 |
| 13 | 3855.8 | 3851.40446615749 | 4.39553384251258 |
| 14 | 3860.4 | 3857.27369827321 | 3.12630172678837 |
| 15 | 3855.1 | 3862.62068956048 | -7.52068956048197 |
| 16 | 3839.5 | 3853.45652546211 | -13.9565254621148 |
| 17 | 3833 | 3827.14354727410 | 5.85645272589545 |
| 18 | 3833.6 | 3826.88015270464 | 6.71984729535689 |
| 19 | 3826.8 | 3829.84500527164 | -3.04500527163873 |
| 20 | 3818.2 | 3822.00413013856 | -3.80413013855605 |
| 21 | 3811.4 | 3809.72087272178 | 1.67912727821704 |
| 22 | 3806.8 | 3806.43206544889 | 0.367934551109556 |
| 23 | 3810.3 | 3800.02291122855 | 10.2770887714491 |
| 24 | 3818.2 | 3809.93393929074 | 8.26606070926118 |
| 25 | 3858.9 | 3821.70505451913 | 37.1949454808714 |
| 26 | 3867.8 | 3885.74113334937 | -17.9411333493663 |
| 27 | 3872.3 | 3884.91421961965 | -12.6142196196479 |
| 28 | 3873.3 | 3881.81730666609 | -8.517306666085 |
| 29 | 3876.7 | 3877.81418623354 | -1.11418623353939 |
| 30 | 3882.6 | 3878.7566553418 | 3.84334465820257 |
| 31 | 3883.5 | 3887.95911392597 | -4.45911392597145 |
| 32 | 3882.2 | 3886.70995606965 | -4.50995606964534 |
| 33 | 3888.1 | 3883.14797598595 | 4.95202401404731 |
| 34 | 3893.7 | 3889.99802811631 | 3.70197188368684 |
| 35 | 3901.9 | 3898.48858416484 | 3.41141583516492 |
| 36 | 3914.3 | 3909.25209658604 | 5.04790341396347 |
| 37 | 3930.3 | 3925.47306210611 | 4.82693789389123 |
| 38 | 3948.3 | 3942.27850721913 | 6.02149278086654 |
| 39 | 3971.5 | 3964.49016356772 | 7.0098364322821 |
| 40 | 3990.1 | 3992.44306525081 | -2.34306525080865 |
| 41 | 3993 | 4010.8955595138 | -17.8955595138009 |
| 42 | 3998 | 4001.77961145368 | -3.77961145368454 |
| 43 | 4015.8 | 4004.53817920240 | 11.2618207976047 |
| 44 | 4041.2 | 4028.49356944477 | 12.7064305552340 |
| 45 | 4060.7 | 4061.94174084626 | -1.24174084625793 |
| 46 | 4076.7 | 4080.67032043543 | -3.97032043543049 |
| 47 | 4103 | 4095.1577237556 | 7.84227624440018 |
| 48 | 4125.3 | 4125.07610794788 | 0.223892052119481 |
| 49 | 4139.7 | 4147.67231163608 | -7.97231163608012 |
| 50 | 4146.7 | 4157.53459980018 | -10.8345998001769 |
| 51 | 4158 | 4159.63123052326 | -1.63123052326318 |
| 52 | 4155.1 | 4168.0864119263 | -12.9864119262975 |
| 53 | 4144.8 | 4157.74536911135 | -12.9453691113495 |
| 54 | 4148.2 | 4139.80848546146 | 8.39151453854356 |
| 55 | 4142.5 | 4149.21609995201 | -6.71609995201106 |
| 56 | 4142.1 | 4137.81474204853 | 4.28525795147380 |
| 57 | 4145.4 | 4139.77300285837 | 5.62699714162864 |
| 58 | 4146.3 | 4147.45750214121 | -1.15750214120726 |
| 59 | 4143.5 | 4148.27467061052 | -4.77467061052266 |
| 60 | 4149.2 | 4141.61474750671 | 7.58525249329159 |
| 61 | 4158.9 | 4151.12755275496 | 7.7724472450418 |
| 62 | 4166.1 | 4166.16942031988 | -0.0694203198809191 |
| 63 | 4179.1 | 4174.13644842269 | 4.96355157731523 |
| 64 | 4194.4 | 4189.43157789836 | 4.9684221016405 |
| 65 | 4211.7 | 4206.9813008537 | 4.71869914629769 |
| 66 | 4226.3 | 4227.4485221859 | -1.14852218590022 |
| 67 | 4235.8 | 4242.69597429281 | -6.89597429281184 |
| 68 | 4243.6 | 4247.66840880222 | -4.06840880221898 |
| 69 | 4258.7 | 4252.17028840476 | 6.52971159523986 |
| 70 | 4278.2 | 4270.75210954946 | 7.44789045054404 |
| 71 | 4298 | 4295.73348800946 | 2.26651199053958 |
| 72 | 4315.1 | 4316.84840386786 | -1.74840386786036 |
| 73 | 4334.3 | 4332.71134031561 | 1.58865968439295 |
| 74 | 4356 | 4352.32230417229 | 3.67769582770507 |
| 75 | 4374 | 4376.92782063219 | -2.92782063219056 |
| 76 | 4395.5 | 4393.25799034535 | 2.24200965465388 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 77 | 4415.81746783839 | 4398.24174628024 | 4433.39318939654 |
| 78 | 4435.79094375291 | 4403.36670091325 | 4468.21518659257 |
| 79 | 4456.17321299487 | 4406.4150817472 | 4505.93134424254 |
| 80 | 4476.88119531876 | 4409.8344569487 | 4543.92793368881 |
