| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0513226259983897 |
| beta | 0.0966756503497419 |
| gamma | 0.289021407755364 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1530 | 1571.36956742168 | -41.3695674216813 |
| 14 | 1523 | 1559.41355733058 | -36.4135573305755 |
| 15 | 1633 | 1661.44277370245 | -28.4427737024482 |
| 16 | 1976 | 2010.62382343132 | -34.6238234313171 |
| 17 | 1170 | 1195.53270921403 | -25.532709214026 |
| 18 | 1480 | 1527.04041924606 | -47.0404192460585 |
| 19 | 1781 | 1887.25217515444 | -106.252175154443 |
| 20 | 2472 | 2343.73790116042 | 128.262098839582 |
| 21 | 1981 | 1915.61497181918 | 65.3850281808197 |
| 22 | 2273 | 2515.90243214176 | -242.902432141756 |
| 23 | 3857 | 3920.75558687946 | -63.7555868794584 |
| 24 | 4551 | 4952.19395853118 | -401.193958531177 |
| 25 | 1510 | 1439.18705154593 | 70.8129484540675 |
| 26 | 1329 | 1432.76298315525 | -103.762983155249 |
| 27 | 1518 | 1522.51441955630 | -4.51441955629775 |
| 28 | 1790 | 1840.53881135034 | -50.5388113503438 |
| 29 | 1537 | 1090.56603322183 | 446.433966778171 |
| 30 | 1449 | 1420.63500079730 | 28.3649992026976 |
| 31 | 1954 | 1749.02749779951 | 204.972502200494 |
| 32 | 1897 | 2262.81532258757 | -365.815322587573 |
| 33 | 1706 | 1819.69896462105 | -113.69896462105 |
| 34 | 2514 | 2293.30509548857 | 220.694904511431 |
| 35 | 3593 | 3695.08334293361 | -102.083342933606 |
| 36 | 4524 | 4585.05251444474 | -61.0525144447438 |
| 37 | 1609 | 1387.84395244362 | 221.156047556384 |
| 38 | 1638 | 1346.19070221032 | 291.809297789679 |
| 39 | 2030 | 1485.19299204736 | 544.807007952642 |
| 40 | 1375 | 1826.84678259232 | -451.846782592321 |
| 41 | 1320 | 1201.96861097173 | 118.031389028272 |
| 42 | 1245 | 1399.87514559808 | -154.875145598079 |
| 43 | 1600 | 1760.46891453843 | -160.46891453843 |
| 44 | 2298 | 2087.95634566304 | 210.043654336961 |
| 45 | 2191 | 1754.87500961160 | 436.124990388398 |
| 46 | 2511 | 2355.47328598542 | 155.526714014577 |
| 47 | 3440 | 3678.14977409732 | -238.149774097320 |
| 48 | 4923 | 4589.76924873895 | 333.230751261051 |
| 49 | 1609 | 1467.12279329130 | 141.877206708697 |
| 50 | 1435 | 1444.90491821398 | -9.90491821398382 |
| 51 | 2061 | 1639.68583640788 | 421.314163592121 |
| 52 | 1789 | 1703.52806056007 | 85.4719394399292 |
| 53 | 1567 | 1259.27740092053 | 307.722599079470 |
| 54 | 1404 | 1401.00590589044 | 2.99409410955582 |
| 55 | 1597 | 1790.57274270083 | -193.572742700826 |
| 56 | 3159 | 2246.79639245545 | 912.203607544546 |
| 57 | 1759 | 2004.52103938439 | -245.521039384386 |
| 58 | 2504 | 2529.08187679151 | -25.0818767915098 |
| 59 | 4273 | 3810.32457662363 | 462.675423376371 |
| 60 | 5274 | 5008.43781085013 | 265.562189149866 |
| 61 | 1771 | 1617.23043546127 | 153.769564538729 |
| 62 | 1682 | 1556.00217237582 | 125.997827624182 |
| 63 | 1846 | 1910.29634476034 | -64.2963447603395 |
| 64 | 1589 | 1860.14889917992 | -271.148899179915 |
| 65 | 1896 | 1435.51995975500 | 460.480040244997 |
| 66 | 1379 | 1509.12651646586 | -130.126516465859 |
| 67 | 1645 | 1866.42217942539 | -221.422179425388 |
| 68 | 2512 | 2682.3656637486 | -170.365663748599 |
| 69 | 1771 | 2036.14989717429 | -265.149897174291 |
| 70 | 3727 | 2651.07029819624 | 1075.92970180376 |
| 71 | 4388 | 4234.93388676277 | 153.066113237232 |
| 72 | 5434 | 5451.98241944138 | -17.9824194413832 |
| 73 | 1606 | 1777.73118049791 | -171.731180497907 |
| 74 | 1523 | 1688.22924153534 | -165.229241535336 |
| 75 | 1577 | 1990.02633091137 | -413.026330911373 |
| 76 | 1605 | 1858.16304094875 | -253.163040948755 |
| 77 | 1765 | 1622.42739289942 | 142.572607100581 |
| 78 | 1403 | 1511.17084789707 | -108.170847897075 |
| 79 | 2584 | 1849.24228707975 | 734.757712920249 |
| 80 | 3318 | 2772.45776661536 | 545.542233384639 |
| 81 | 1562 | 2095.90533819581 | -533.905338195808 |
| 82 | 2349 | 3121.98476929198 | -772.984769291976 |
| 83 | 3987 | 4382.89146049274 | -395.891460492743 |
| 84 | 5891 | 5530.86930769623 | 360.130692303774 |
| 85 | 1389 | 1759.01873624210 | -370.018736242102 |
| 86 | 1442 | 1655.20105760569 | -213.201057605691 |
| 87 | 1548 | 1881.01759002865 | -333.017590028652 |
| 88 | 1935 | 1791.01264162245 | 143.987358377548 |
| 89 | 1518 | 1679.36240015113 | -161.362400151134 |
| 90 | 1250 | 1479.27854465245 | -229.278544652452 |
| 91 | 1847 | 2028.45850166658 | -181.458501666584 |
| 92 | 1930 | 2808.12293876142 | -878.122938761418 |
| 93 | 2638 | 1809.55138663845 | 828.448613361552 |
| 94 | 3114 | 2788.75676695808 | 325.243233041916 |
| 95 | 4405 | 4165.79071306925 | 239.20928693075 |
| 96 | 7242 | 5517.72019270466 | 1724.27980729534 |
| 97 | 1853 | 1642.87618284972 | 210.123817150283 |
| 98 | 1779 | 1612.43132140277 | 166.568678597235 |
| 99 | 2108 | 1832.17691824364 | 275.823081756362 |
| 100 | 2336 | 1913.25538826244 | 422.744611737562 |
| 101 | 1728 | 1728.48274969031 | -0.482749690310129 |
| 102 | 1661 | 1511.36252751633 | 149.637472483672 |
| 103 | 2230 | 2152.19070188827 | 77.8092981117297 |
| 104 | 1645 | 2824.74458434354 | -1179.74458434354 |
| 105 | 2421 | 2239.81056904462 | 181.189430955378 |
| 106 | 3740 | 3125.4009086972 | 614.5990913028 |
| 107 | 4988 | 4635.28849398666 | 352.711506013341 |
| 108 | 6757 | 6590.43627772738 | 166.563722272623 |
| 109 | 1757 | 1851.26421649304 | -94.2642164930446 |
| 110 | 1394 | 1792.77004687517 | -398.770046875165 |
| 111 | 1982 | 2029.44603515612 | -47.446035156117 |
| 112 | 1650 | 2138.31674096811 | -488.316740968107 |
| 113 | 1654 | 1776.79978277586 | -122.799782775855 |
| 114 | 1406 | 1585.86604854665 | -179.866048546651 |
| 115 | 1971 | 2188.58427687695 | -217.584276876952 |
| 116 | 1968 | 2483.44085859961 | -515.44085859961 |
| 117 | 2608 | 2296.99085634624 | 311.009143653760 |
| 118 | 3845 | 3302.63442170321 | 542.365578296792 |
| 119 | 4514 | 4724.08581106525 | -210.085811065246 |
| 120 | 6694 | 6560.6124596845 | 133.387540315506 |
| 121 | 1720 | 1797.56528271134 | -77.565282711344 |
| 122 | 1321 | 1651.26638180696 | -330.266381806965 |
| 123 | 1859 | 1974.72876687268 | -115.728766872676 |
| 124 | 1628 | 1950.68045521917 | -322.680455219167 |
| 125 | 1615 | 1697.38990829453 | -82.3899082945263 |
| 126 | 1457 | 1492.69848121522 | -35.6984812152232 |
| 127 | 1899 | 2071.86679540881 | -172.86679540881 |
| 128 | 1605 | 2273.68483240167 | -668.684832401673 |
| 129 | 2424 | 2295.64718499123 | 128.352815008765 |
| 130 | 3116 | 3299.83911495731 | -183.839114957309 |
| 131 | 4286 | 4392.12206144793 | -106.122061447928 |
| 132 | 6047 | 6186.82230988632 | -139.822309886315 |
| 133 | 1902 | 1653.94483594882 | 248.055164051182 |
| 134 | 2049 | 1461.01216917940 | 587.987830820604 |
| 135 | 1874 | 1874.95322391386 | -0.953223913864122 |
| 136 | 1279 | 1800.52637332201 | -521.526373322009 |
| 137 | 1432 | 1607.41138442942 | -175.411384429416 |
| 138 | 1540 | 1416.53574035029 | 123.464259649714 |
| 139 | 2214 | 1942.63425230185 | 271.365747698154 |
| 140 | 1857 | 2026.50256677048 | -169.502566770484 |
| 141 | 2408 | 2290.03682171637 | 117.963178283627 |
| 142 | 3252 | 3195.42166299226 | 56.5783370077388 |
| 143 | 3627 | 4313.37392652558 | -686.373926525584 |
| 144 | 6153 | 6041.36336182473 | 111.636638175273 |
| 145 | 1577 | 1696.80043384051 | -119.800433840508 |
| 146 | 1667 | 1577.74227395362 | 89.2577260463793 |
| 147 | 1993 | 1791.93181604168 | 201.06818395832 |
| 148 | 1997 | 1589.46956603025 | 407.53043396975 |
| 149 | 1783 | 1541.89180518140 | 241.108194818598 |
| 150 | 1625 | 1458.08910228096 | 166.91089771904 |
| 151 | 2076 | 2036.31924432246 | 39.6807556775368 |
| 152 | 1773 | 1991.75687219657 | -218.756872196566 |
| 153 | 2377 | 2338.41459014031 | 38.5854098596942 |
| 154 | 3088 | 3234.15033715064 | -146.150337150636 |
| 155 | 4096 | 4147.42124307446 | -51.4212430744556 |
| 156 | 6119 | 6168.93311760892 | -49.9331176089154 |
| 157 | 1494 | 1692.16775339754 | -198.167753397543 |
| 158 | 1564 | 1629.08203605577 | -65.0820360557659 |
| 159 | 1898 | 1871.70756972243 | 26.2924302775675 |
| 160 | 2121 | 1716.17913443011 | 404.820865569887 |
| 161 | 1831 | 1623.09644518333 | 207.90355481667 |
| 162 | 1515 | 1517.45368394950 | -2.4536839494956 |
| 163 | 2048 | 2054.60361080717 | -6.60361080717075 |
| 164 | 2795 | 1936.68703788415 | 858.31296211585 |
| 165 | 1749 | 2429.72128285821 | -680.721282858206 |
| 166 | 3339 | 3258.32441951495 | 80.6755804850477 |
| 167 | 4227 | 4239.46805951502 | -12.4680595150185 |
| 168 | 6410 | 6328.19029107946 | 81.8097089205357 |
| 169 | 1197 | 1688.65155391750 | -491.651553917496 |
| 170 | 1968 | 1648.42787070931 | 319.572129290693 |
| 171 | 1720 | 1949.84385869242 | -229.843858692416 |
| 172 | 1725 | 1884.99067625603 | -159.990676256032 |
| 173 | 1674 | 1705.97102352283 | -31.9710235228338 |
| 174 | 1693 | 1527.87608325712 | 165.123916742876 |
| 175 | 2031 | 2079.12161922621 | -48.1216192262145 |
| 176 | 1495 | 2191.77632527178 | -696.776325271781 |
| 177 | 2968 | 2170.98314099033 | 797.01685900967 |
| 178 | 3385 | 3283.36275573104 | 101.637244268963 |
| 179 | 3729 | 4237.95546307917 | -508.95546307917 |
| 180 | 5999 | 6306.78823787491 | -307.788237874912 |
| 181 | 1070 | 1533.69189439295 | -463.691894392953 |
| 182 | 1402 | 1710.98349019132 | -308.983490191325 |
| 183 | 1897 | 1818.18276816566 | 78.8172318343404 |
| 184 | 1862 | 1784.09279686647 | 77.9072031335277 |
| 185 | 1670 | 1652.12019807661 | 17.8798019233927 |
| 186 | 1688 | 1530.36178913519 | 157.638210864809 |
| 187 | 2031 | 2005.43648256256 | 25.5635174374422 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 188 | 1939.05863778015 | 1711.21599870786 | 2166.90127685245 |
| 189 | 2353.39906523271 | 2120.58095899113 | 2586.2171714743 |
| 190 | 3199.61993453982 | 2955.04361628675 | 3444.19625279289 |
| 191 | 3944.4175808265 | 3682.84597737747 | 4205.98918427552 |
| 192 | 6016.98882241657 | 5700.21309726915 | 6333.76454756399 |
| 193 | 1359.74787921020 | 1125.54085204995 | 1593.95490637044 |
| 194 | 1598.63375796167 | 1356.30167134560 | 1840.96584457773 |
| 195 | 1828.2149657785 | 1574.79776464716 | 2081.63216690985 |
| 196 | 1791.60060763542 | 1532.75655749418 | 2050.44465777667 |
| 197 | 1641.68097636665 | 1381.44606003144 | 1901.91589270187 |
| 198 | 1558.80292339697 | 1295.05440281135 | 1822.55144398258 |
| 199 | 1983.42912187421 | 1786.19498938624 | 2180.66325436218 |
