| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.987057390298826 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 664.45 | 666.27 | -1.81999999999994 |
| 3 | 660.76 | 664.473555549656 | -3.71355554965623 |
| 4 | 660.4 | 660.808063100083 | -0.408063100082813 |
| 5 | 660.69 | 660.405281401438 | 0.284718598562222 |
| 6 | 660.69 | 660.686314998304 | 0.00368500169588515 |
| 7 | 662.23 | 660.689952306461 | 1.54004769353867 |
| 8 | 661.41 | 662.210067763781 | -0.800067763781385 |
| 9 | 659.02 | 661.420354964801 | -2.40035496480107 |
| 10 | 655.43 | 659.051066857454 | -3.62106685745368 |
| 11 | 652.59 | 655.476866055038 | -2.88686605503779 |
| 12 | 652.59 | 652.62736358061 | -0.0373635806099628 |
| 13 | 648.2 | 652.590483582241 | -4.3904835822409 |
| 14 | 645.84 | 648.256824315404 | -2.41682431540437 |
| 15 | 644.67 | 645.87128001383 | -1.20128001383068 |
| 16 | 642.71 | 644.685547698361 | -1.97554769836074 |
| 17 | 640.14 | 642.735568742806 | -2.59556874280599 |
| 18 | 640.14 | 640.173593433191 | -0.0335934331907310 |
| 19 | 639.64 | 640.140434786694 | -0.500434786694314 |
| 20 | 630.28 | 639.646476932125 | -9.36647693212512 |
| 21 | 614.57 | 630.401226655208 | -15.8312266552075 |
| 22 | 614.7 | 614.774897387689 | -0.0748973876891341 |
| 23 | 615.08 | 614.700969367657 | 0.379030632343529 |
| 24 | 615.08 | 615.075094354461 | 0.00490564553922468 |
| 25 | 614.43 | 615.079936508144 | -0.649936508144492 |
| 26 | 604.55 | 614.438411874555 | -9.88841187455546 |
| 27 | 598.98 | 604.677981855457 | -5.69798185545676 |
| 28 | 594.05 | 599.05374675524 | -5.0037467552396 |
| 29 | 593.05 | 594.114761541297 | -1.06476154129655 |
| 30 | 593.05 | 593.063780793054 | -0.0137807930537974 |
| 31 | 593.34 | 593.050178359426 | 0.289821640574246 |
| 32 | 584.72 | 593.336248951623 | -8.6162489516231 |
| 33 | 580.7 | 584.831516747269 | -4.13151674726896 |
| 34 | 577.08 | 580.753472608734 | -3.67347260873373 |
| 35 | 569.92 | 577.127544322223 | -7.20754432222293 |
| 36 | 569.92 | 570.013284433066 | -0.0932844330664011 |
| 37 | 568.86 | 569.921207344008 | -1.06120734400827 |
| 38 | 559.38 | 568.873734792465 | -9.49373479246549 |
| 39 | 548.22 | 559.502873704025 | -11.2828737040253 |
| 40 | 545.61 | 548.366029830659 | -2.75602983065880 |
| 41 | 545.33 | 545.645670218423 | -0.315670218422952 |
| 42 | 530.3 | 545.334085596431 | -15.0340855964314 |
| 43 | 527.76 | 530.494580302089 | -2.7345803020886 |
| 44 | 521.41 | 527.795392605546 | -6.38539260554649 |
| 45 | 1601.93 | 521.492643644282 | 1080.43735635572 |
| 46 | 1577.49 | 1587.94632099012 | -10.4563209901194 |
| 47 | 1551.43 | 1577.62533208149 | -26.1953320814853 |
| 48 | 1551.43 | 1551.76903595912 | -0.339035959123294 |
| 49 | 1516.88 | 1551.43438801009 | -34.5543880100936 |
| 50 | 1485.95 | 1517.32722395748 | -31.3772239574776 |
| 51 | 1438.22 | 1486.35610316319 | -48.136103163188 |
| 52 | 1385.06 | 1438.84300679578 | -53.7830067957766 |
| 53 | 1329.49 | 1385.75609246551 | -56.2660924655133 |
| 54 | 1329.49 | 1330.21823007419 | -0.728230074191288 |
| 55 | 1276.16 | 1329.49942519762 | -53.3394251976229 |
| 56 | 1242.34 | 1276.85035136202 | -34.5103513620179 |
| 57 | 1181.59 | 1242.78665400833 | -61.196654008329 |
| 58 | 1160.21 | 1182.38204440785 | -22.1720444078476 |
| 59 | 1135.18 | 1160.49696411705 | -25.3169641170477 |
| 60 | 1135.18 | 1135.50766758539 | -0.327667585385598 |
| 61 | 1084.96 | 1135.18424087367 | -50.2242408736695 |
| 62 | 1077.35 | 1085.61003274717 | -8.26003274716572 |
| 63 | 1061.13 | 1077.45690637997 | -16.3269063799653 |
| 64 | 1029.98 | 1061.34131277690 | -31.3613127769036 |
| 65 | 1013.08 | 1030.38589723099 | -17.3058972309879 |
| 66 | 1013.08 | 1013.30398347339 | -0.223983473389353 |
| 67 | 996.04 | 1013.08289893068 | -17.0428989306756 |
| 68 | 975.02 | 996.260579589036 | -21.2405795890363 |
| 69 | 951.89 | 975.294908531448 | -23.4049085314476 |
| 70 | 944.4 | 952.192920596214 | -7.79292059621423 |
| 71 | 932.47 | 944.50086072971 | -12.0308607297090 |
| 72 | 932.47 | 932.625710734794 | -0.155710734793843 |
| 73 | 920.44 | 932.472015303267 | -12.0320153032667 |
| 74 | 900.18 | 920.595725677989 | -20.4157256779888 |
| 75 | 886.9 | 900.444232769216 | -13.5442327692165 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 76 | 887.075297718434 | 636.355313584583 | 1137.79528185228 |
| 77 | 887.075297718434 | 534.790764110012 | 1239.35983132686 |
| 78 | 887.075297718434 | 456.55436350579 | 1317.59623193108 |
| 79 | 887.075297718434 | 390.494833975696 | 1383.65576146117 |
| 80 | 887.075297718434 | 332.245558837597 | 1441.90503659927 |
| 81 | 887.075297718434 | 279.555815461114 | 1494.59477997575 |
| 82 | 887.075297718434 | 231.084593898763 | 1543.06600153810 |
| 83 | 887.075297718434 | 185.956416448323 | 1588.19417898854 |
| 84 | 887.075297718434 | 143.562306675859 | 1630.58828876101 |
| 85 | 887.075297718434 | 103.458395128462 | 1670.69220030841 |
| 86 | 887.075297718434 | 65.30931387612 | 1708.84128156075 |
| 87 | 887.075297718434 | 28.8543387714091 | 1745.29625666546 |
