| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.668837108850633 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.703044343859426 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 532168 | 499791.708476475 | 32376.2915235246 |
| 14 | 551102 | 539103.860765777 | 11998.1392342234 |
| 15 | 593789 | 590455.104842513 | 3333.89515748725 |
| 16 | 527106 | 527271.974943384 | -165.974943384412 |
| 17 | 547327 | 546140.125967571 | 1186.87403242872 |
| 18 | 601305 | 599384.527307553 | 1920.47269244655 |
| 19 | 610872 | 608483.732180449 | 2388.26781955070 |
| 20 | 601325 | 576989.859138153 | 24335.140861847 |
| 21 | 642143 | 716926.628860752 | -74783.6288607515 |
| 22 | 614216 | 576047.110066571 | 38168.8899334290 |
| 23 | 657979 | 651719.137024963 | 6259.86297503684 |
| 24 | 673098 | 670713.562394768 | 2384.437605232 |
| 25 | 602297 | 610728.630374213 | -8431.63037421345 |
| 26 | 615381 | 619039.750355153 | -3658.75035515311 |
| 27 | 703671 | 662212.638258278 | 41458.361741722 |
| 28 | 733852 | 612127.883262676 | 121724.116737324 |
| 29 | 716596 | 717293.380123523 | -697.38012352318 |
| 30 | 745798 | 784016.794608828 | -38218.7946088276 |
| 31 | 742027.1 | 766974.573905942 | -24947.4739059421 |
| 32 | 679181.2 | 714498.114775428 | -35316.9147754284 |
| 33 | 739022.7 | 804449.728749846 | -65427.0287498465 |
| 34 | 645410.6 | 683691.368821074 | -38280.7688210745 |
| 35 | 729382.1 | 703670.014938122 | 25712.0850618776 |
| 36 | 671052.7 | 735545.105597858 | -64492.4055978581 |
| 37 | 744954.8 | 626277.833757071 | 118676.966242929 |
| 38 | 677639.3 | 722358.702578015 | -44719.4025780149 |
| 39 | 778207.2 | 754405.332784488 | 23801.8672155116 |
| 40 | 763316.2 | 701027.808503255 | 62288.3914967446 |
| 41 | 658531.6 | 737651.945883853 | -79120.3458838535 |
| 42 | 831700.1 | 740543.715176659 | 91156.3848233406 |
| 43 | 664156.3 | 813401.07946849 | -149244.779468491 |
| 44 | 621402.1 | 676910.5401654 | -55508.4401653998 |
| 45 | 683588.7 | 739212.716908837 | -55624.016908837 |
| 46 | 600023.8 | 635439.675750915 | -35415.8757509151 |
| 47 | 643273.8 | 668950.699031645 | -25676.8990316449 |
| 48 | 653615.9 | 645863.192224382 | 7752.70777561842 |
| 49 | 620177.5 | 625701.958769171 | -5524.45876917127 |
| 50 | 574128.8 | 604329.101478896 | -30200.3014788956 |
| 51 | 599828 | 651597.175796715 | -51769.1757967147 |
| 52 | 599369.4 | 569440.119221997 | 29929.2807780030 |
| 53 | 596617.7 | 559913.550929166 | 36704.1490708342 |
| 54 | 616114.6 | 667475.504536375 | -51360.9045363754 |
| 55 | 510226.9 | 596686.845058719 | -86459.9450587189 |
| 56 | 493960.1 | 527542.88488512 | -33582.7848851199 |
| 57 | 634503.3 | 585770.022328746 | 48733.2776712541 |
| 58 | 588556.2 | 563108.582126976 | 25447.6178730238 |
| 59 | 603239 | 637365.210952478 | -34126.210952478 |
| 60 | 617458.2 | 616585.308318703 | 872.891681296634 |
| 61 | 646543.5 | 590578.10751721 | 55965.3924827899 |
| 62 | 680125.6 | 604004.447400742 | 76121.152599258 |
| 63 | 731595.8 | 724242.242373012 | 7353.55762698816 |
| 64 | 759600.3 | 693397.966404895 | 66202.3335951052 |
| 65 | 785031.7 | 701432.916879808 | 83598.7831201917 |
| 66 | 849573.3 | 834801.360212398 | 14771.9397876016 |
| 67 | 762342 | 779240.207694494 | -16898.2076944942 |
| 68 | 815346.6 | 766455.354583783 | 48891.2454162168 |
| 69 | 929603.2 | 955007.951241408 | -25404.7512414085 |
| 70 | 784057.5 | 844729.693556326 | -60672.1935563263 |
| 71 | 944667.7 | 861113.046510262 | 83554.6534897379 |
| 72 | 1007258.3 | 929447.667399311 | 77810.6326006893 |
| 73 | 664292.7 | 955073.862868592 | -290781.162868592 |
| 74 | 873207.4 | 735038.697237401 | 138168.702762599 |
| 75 | 1146510 | 891699.382528233 | 254810.617471767 |
| 76 | 1417266.8 | 1026218.64548934 | 391048.154510665 |
| 77 | 1089387.9 | 1226540.72989738 | -137152.829897380 |
| 78 | 1373379.7 | 1221902.54560288 | 151477.154397119 |
| 79 | 1009397.6 | 1206666.75808575 | -197269.158085752 |
| 80 | 818175.1 | 1091436.31765757 | -273261.217657573 |
| 81 | 1003458.1 | 1063152.38644291 | -59694.2864429121 |
| 82 | 961142.7 | 910505.322475077 | 50637.3775249226 |
| 83 | 1121906.6 | 1050042.74597773 | 71863.8540222712 |
| 84 | 1141713.3 | 1108996.02422576 | 32717.2757742386 |
| 85 | 1042352.6 | 983653.035840164 | 58699.5641598356 |
| 86 | 992223.6 | 1124671.42382884 | -132447.823828837 |
| 87 | 920525.3 | 1133535.55347793 | -213010.253477934 |
| 88 | 1076093.4 | 971710.947012389 | 104382.452987611 |
| 89 | 967880.4 | 901678.349604884 | 66202.0503951164 |
| 90 | 1236416.1 | 1076801.59113149 | 159614.508868511 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 91 | 1006991.05379214 | 831150.775784212 | 1182831.33180006 |
| 92 | 993605.904937146 | 776063.716942258 | 1211148.09293203 |
| 93 | 1232034.45041535 | 946012.322001396 | 1518056.57882931 |
| 94 | 1124096.3014259 | 829296.654736894 | 1418895.94811490 |
| 95 | 1252228.08112224 | 904878.522084628 | 1599577.64015985 |
| 96 | 1253324.27861662 | 883401.654833915 | 1623246.90239933 |
| 97 | 1096810.67582455 | 744412.445743095 | 1449208.90590600 |
| 98 | 1154287.95037287 | 764523.035627818 | 1544052.86511792 |
| 99 | 1235607.78165482 | 802492.443593142 | 1668723.11971649 |
| 100 | 1303159.64685823 | 831648.888221738 | 1774670.40549472 |
| 101 | 1119269.30958045 | 691194.06580129 | 1547344.55335962 |
| 102 | 1292046.43721176 | 819196.40488035 | 1764896.46954317 |
