| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.147667823524466 |
| beta | 0.124242853591504 |
| gamma | 0.292533149520714 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 371161 | 361157.915090309 | 10003.0849096908 |
| 14 | 299023 | 293480.223209457 | 5542.77679054317 |
| 15 | 326964 | 323388.042746108 | 3575.95725389244 |
| 16 | 327146 | 323045.450720606 | 4100.54927939392 |
| 17 | 303447 | 299982.360968186 | 3464.63903181400 |
| 18 | 351994 | 352748.677695795 | -754.67769579502 |
| 19 | 320317 | 326917.034848067 | -6600.03484806692 |
| 20 | 257151 | 278431.175896412 | -21280.1758964119 |
| 21 | 320274 | 322885.822104651 | -2611.82210465142 |
| 22 | 476982 | 429590.000615249 | 47391.9993847507 |
| 23 | 301723 | 327430.411907507 | -25707.411907507 |
| 24 | 363567 | 416559.126517708 | -52992.1265177078 |
| 25 | 338831 | 370781.708270665 | -31950.7082706649 |
| 26 | 265802 | 294297.353265327 | -28495.3532653265 |
| 27 | 307691 | 316049.58595791 | -8358.5859579101 |
| 28 | 334207 | 311809.858004804 | 22397.1419951958 |
| 29 | 303127 | 290189.700722495 | 12937.2992775055 |
| 30 | 318863 | 339838.660850376 | -20975.6608503757 |
| 31 | 292123 | 308708.708341529 | -16585.7083415294 |
| 32 | 245155 | 255999.928903402 | -10844.9289034021 |
| 33 | 284794 | 301593.359756330 | -16799.3597563303 |
| 34 | 391604 | 406909.956302716 | -15305.9563027158 |
| 35 | 304982 | 286634.188985718 | 18347.8110142816 |
| 36 | 369552 | 364816.467473492 | 4735.53252650757 |
| 37 | 356021 | 333449.319457376 | 22571.6805426237 |
| 38 | 247577 | 269362.671005350 | -21785.6710053502 |
| 39 | 277885 | 294653.697907713 | -16768.6979077131 |
| 40 | 294032 | 295671.763292971 | -1639.76329297089 |
| 41 | 310845 | 269139.195544959 | 41705.8044550411 |
| 42 | 311023 | 311206.657278730 | -183.657278730476 |
| 43 | 298462 | 285577.402795548 | 12884.5972044519 |
| 44 | 234188 | 241210.153113655 | -7022.15311365537 |
| 45 | 297478 | 284077.499066064 | 13400.5009339358 |
| 46 | 371017 | 392163.73739877 | -21146.7373987695 |
| 47 | 291128 | 283399.997402719 | 7728.00259728072 |
| 48 | 316374 | 355076.83749303 | -38702.8374930298 |
| 49 | 326001 | 322936.120528219 | 3064.87947178097 |
| 50 | 222302 | 248886.550308959 | -26584.5503089590 |
| 51 | 227424 | 272390.39427674 | -44966.39427674 |
| 52 | 255428 | 271352.536469898 | -15924.5364698984 |
| 53 | 278250 | 253349.06131997 | 24900.9386800301 |
| 54 | 280335 | 278183.884870883 | 2151.11512911710 |
| 55 | 241894 | 256885.912955354 | -14991.9129553536 |
| 56 | 255075 | 208045.478801176 | 47029.5211988241 |
| 57 | 255115 | 258255.514490803 | -3140.51449080318 |
| 58 | 319482 | 343012.819417679 | -23530.8194176793 |
| 59 | 270694 | 251177.374004127 | 19516.6259958728 |
| 60 | 300209 | 304969.700391699 | -4760.70039169939 |
| 61 | 283531 | 289256.273223095 | -5725.27322309453 |
| 62 | 218924 | 214825.659061911 | 4098.34093808889 |
| 63 | 236466 | 235713.103595418 | 752.896404582309 |
| 64 | 267980 | 248404.329910087 | 19575.6700899135 |
| 65 | 219994 | 247414.126846901 | -27420.1268469013 |
| 66 | 256052 | 258092.299543123 | -2040.29954312256 |
| 67 | 230444 | 234149.675240082 | -3705.67524008173 |
| 68 | 200778 | 204689.920864555 | -3911.92086455479 |
| 69 | 240960 | 231211.159005087 | 9748.84099491325 |
| 70 | 277837 | 304676.136356123 | -26839.1363561229 |
| 71 | 209776 | 230253.009807971 | -20477.0098079710 |
| 72 | 232065 | 265177.70131122 | -33112.7013112198 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 245284.756237227 | 229107.042437408 | 261462.470037046 |
| 74 | 183101.802187382 | 166130.785475117 | 200072.818899648 |
| 75 | 197950.651322263 | 179082.590229975 | 216818.712414552 |
| 76 | 210632.287350266 | 189419.6395728 | 231844.935127732 |
| 77 | 195738.26560289 | 173250.808965976 | 218225.722239804 |
| 78 | 211446.175941396 | 185578.812880892 | 237313.539001899 |
| 79 | 190121.875229136 | 163585.742718653 | 216658.00773962 |
| 80 | 165123.004770323 | 138597.231209813 | 191648.778330833 |
| 81 | 188421.627648825 | 156498.093646389 | 220345.16165126 |
| 82 | 236652.735908474 | 194534.003945037 | 278771.467871911 |
| 83 | 179832.658266007 | 143315.356784557 | 216349.959747457 |
| 84 | 206684.005369926 | 164914.322234310 | 248453.688505542 |
