| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.921339261357122 |
| beta | 0.180937138360347 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 244752 | 232009.034455128 | 12742.9655448717 |
| 14 | 244576 | 245522.595096673 | -946.595096672943 |
| 15 | 241572 | 243428.082729499 | -1856.08272949874 |
| 16 | 240541 | 242319.706374761 | -1778.70637476142 |
| 17 | 236089 | 237906.726555531 | -1817.72655553120 |
| 18 | 236997 | 238595.606067781 | -1598.60606778093 |
| 19 | 264579 | 263190.541746734 | 1388.45825326623 |
| 20 | 270349 | 270640.247618376 | -291.247618376219 |
| 21 | 269645 | 271309.905570763 | -1664.90557076276 |
| 22 | 267037 | 271333.744620185 | -4296.74462018523 |
| 23 | 258113 | 263303.480405773 | -5190.48040577321 |
| 24 | 262813 | 259381.880936987 | 3431.11906301271 |
| 25 | 267413 | 267511.303588251 | -98.3035882508848 |
| 26 | 267366 | 265663.007564142 | 1702.99243585835 |
| 27 | 264777 | 263925.961088967 | 851.038911032956 |
| 28 | 258863 | 263756.975839852 | -4893.97583985189 |
| 29 | 254844 | 254390.50436265 | 453.495637350221 |
| 30 | 254868 | 255487.606934048 | -619.606934048032 |
| 31 | 277267 | 279681.121890495 | -2414.12189049466 |
| 32 | 285351 | 281322.951548248 | 4028.04845175165 |
| 33 | 286602 | 284411.85671985 | 2190.14328014990 |
| 34 | 283042 | 286970.898294348 | -3928.89829434769 |
| 35 | 276687 | 278460.982126856 | -1773.98212685587 |
| 36 | 277915 | 278186.602344273 | -271.602344273007 |
| 37 | 277128 | 281830.95941776 | -4702.95941775985 |
| 38 | 277103 | 274318.31169105 | 2784.68830895005 |
| 39 | 275037 | 272127.589579662 | 2909.41042033804 |
| 40 | 270150 | 272363.026264794 | -2213.02626479388 |
| 41 | 267140 | 265294.051827205 | 1845.94817279465 |
| 42 | 264993 | 267228.589519252 | -2235.58951925213 |
| 43 | 287259 | 289161.611821614 | -1902.61182161386 |
| 44 | 291186 | 291236.266110164 | -50.2661101644044 |
| 45 | 292300 | 289198.020074834 | 3101.97992516571 |
| 46 | 288186 | 291042.782580104 | -2856.78258010407 |
| 47 | 281477 | 282795.820872853 | -1318.82087285299 |
| 48 | 282656 | 282240.519614241 | 415.480385759322 |
| 49 | 280190 | 285465.421224797 | -5275.4212247968 |
| 50 | 280408 | 277214.975969950 | 3193.02403005044 |
| 51 | 276836 | 274679.001830959 | 2156.99816904112 |
| 52 | 275216 | 272961.567922090 | 2254.43207791046 |
| 53 | 274352 | 270215.956550630 | 4136.04344936967 |
| 54 | 271311 | 274209.197696483 | -2898.19769648334 |
| 55 | 289802 | 295717.271116954 | -5915.27111695439 |
| 56 | 290726 | 293731.029192182 | -3005.02919218160 |
| 57 | 292300 | 288216.247108030 | 4083.75289196969 |
| 58 | 278506 | 289658.346079567 | -11152.3460795669 |
| 59 | 269826 | 271667.936697812 | -1841.93669781188 |
| 60 | 265861 | 268458.487421693 | -2597.48742169334 |
| 61 | 269034 | 265648.895426095 | 3385.10457390529 |
| 62 | 264176 | 264676.737756064 | -500.737756063812 |
| 63 | 255198 | 256673.165612966 | -1475.16561296556 |
| 64 | 253353 | 249028.547133586 | 4324.45286641447 |
| 65 | 246057 | 246094.824187623 | -37.8241876228421 |
| 66 | 235372 | 242750.084191101 | -7378.08419110082 |
| 67 | 258556 | 256207.405470787 | 2348.59452921333 |
| 68 | 260993 | 259755.601095853 | 1237.39890414698 |
| 69 | 254663 | 257106.067124817 | -2443.06712481679 |
| 70 | 250643 | 248647.141275242 | 1995.85872475817 |
| 71 | 243422 | 243005.791154965 | 416.208845035406 |
| 72 | 247105 | 241696.609126891 | 5408.39087310899 |
| 73 | 248541 | 247947.539364303 | 593.460635697207 |
| 74 | 245039 | 244846.084858005 | 192.915141995181 |
| 75 | 237080 | 238269.005756521 | -1189.00575652113 |
| 76 | 237085 | 232255.996601957 | 4829.00339804275 |
| 77 | 225554 | 230439.863514258 | -4885.8635142576 |
| 78 | 226839 | 222238.721930589 | 4600.27806941132 |
| 79 | 247934 | 249681.810803709 | -1747.81080370874 |
| 80 | 248333 | 250870.055160424 | -2537.05516042383 |
| 81 | 246969 | 245325.877119436 | 1643.12288056378 |
| 82 | 245098 | 242534.490782082 | 2563.50921791792 |
| 83 | 246263 | 238940.115851961 | 7322.88414803939 |
| 84 | 255765 | 247186.620382074 | 8578.37961792576 |
| 85 | 264319 | 259307.49780461 | 5011.50219538985 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 86 | 264309.616669019 | 256899.23533014 | 271719.998007898 |
| 87 | 261478.499962085 | 250527.572899378 | 272429.427024793 |
| 88 | 261264.967743390 | 246899.083236489 | 275630.852250292 |
| 89 | 257661.107284032 | 239847.253046961 | 275474.961521103 |
| 90 | 258947.787527314 | 237597.395313867 | 280298.179740760 |
| 91 | 285126.324277284 | 260127.357876168 | 310125.290678400 |
| 92 | 291627.390747517 | 262857.392973076 | 320397.388521957 |
| 93 | 292937.033554246 | 260269.239797812 | 325604.827310679 |
| 94 | 292617.772331913 | 255924.225203949 | 329311.319459877 |
| 95 | 290522.163631672 | 249675.378244173 | 331368.949019171 |
| 96 | 294386.059999668 | 249259.9331474 | 339512.186851937 |
| 97 | 299158.206183333 | 249628.509089475 | 348687.90327719 |
