| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.275592931492602 |
| beta | 0.0326927269946913 |
| gamma | 0.870730972375243 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 115 | 111.081808708867 | 3.91819129113324 |
| 14 | 126 | 122.331453874744 | 3.66854612525647 |
| 15 | 141 | 137.439015376159 | 3.56098462384085 |
| 16 | 135 | 132.323383220296 | 2.67661677970437 |
| 17 | 125 | 123.479682818149 | 1.52031718185104 |
| 18 | 149 | 147.66729023319 | 1.33270976680993 |
| 19 | 170 | 162.443244801901 | 7.5567551980989 |
| 20 | 170 | 165.529592394220 | 4.47040760577954 |
| 21 | 158 | 153.887714464935 | 4.11228553506467 |
| 22 | 133 | 136.318642929538 | -3.31864292953799 |
| 23 | 114 | 119.090609201624 | -5.09060920162445 |
| 24 | 140 | 133.988714960676 | 6.01128503932392 |
| 25 | 145 | 134.830370109667 | 10.1696298903335 |
| 26 | 150 | 149.705146015383 | 0.294853984617163 |
| 27 | 178 | 166.540824859926 | 11.459175140074 |
| 28 | 163 | 161.749729120072 | 1.25027087992819 |
| 29 | 172 | 149.757505882892 | 22.2424941171083 |
| 30 | 178 | 185.647729927993 | -7.64772992799348 |
| 31 | 199 | 206.262157804506 | -7.26215780450633 |
| 32 | 199 | 203.180877899402 | -4.18087789940165 |
| 33 | 184 | 186.419241979637 | -2.41924197963704 |
| 34 | 162 | 158.147782759529 | 3.85221724047076 |
| 35 | 146 | 138.368716981075 | 7.63128301892533 |
| 36 | 166 | 169.141347816421 | -3.14134781642136 |
| 37 | 171 | 170.360945870197 | 0.639054129803043 |
| 38 | 180 | 177.438178047915 | 2.56182195208476 |
| 39 | 193 | 206.247937689474 | -13.2479376894740 |
| 40 | 181 | 185.96072416093 | -4.96072416092983 |
| 41 | 183 | 184.798364145761 | -1.7983641457605 |
| 42 | 218 | 195.68435973355 | 22.3156402664498 |
| 43 | 230 | 227.498387941040 | 2.50161205896046 |
| 44 | 242 | 229.004769688520 | 12.9952303114803 |
| 45 | 209 | 215.630988418272 | -6.63098841827184 |
| 46 | 191 | 186.286598351092 | 4.71340164890827 |
| 47 | 172 | 166.037643993561 | 5.96235600643919 |
| 48 | 194 | 192.842509510068 | 1.15749048993183 |
| 49 | 196 | 198.309952885672 | -2.30995288567220 |
| 50 | 196 | 206.984486038047 | -10.9844860380474 |
| 51 | 236 | 224.192940896220 | 11.8070591037797 |
| 52 | 235 | 214.065417855660 | 20.9345821443404 |
| 53 | 229 | 222.675252447111 | 6.32474755288877 |
| 54 | 243 | 256.738013695478 | -13.7380136954783 |
| 55 | 264 | 268.357973304409 | -4.35797330440869 |
| 56 | 272 | 275.595124348777 | -3.59512434877661 |
| 57 | 237 | 240.950022441516 | -3.95002244151587 |
| 58 | 211 | 216.418700337473 | -5.41870033747318 |
| 59 | 180 | 191.302342357418 | -11.3023423574182 |
| 60 | 201 | 212.165187519306 | -11.1651875193057 |
| 61 | 204 | 211.884585973222 | -7.8845859732215 |
| 62 | 188 | 213.27848237778 | -25.2784823777802 |
| 63 | 235 | 241.844280631674 | -6.84428063167385 |
| 64 | 227 | 231.126644343173 | -4.12664434317313 |
| 65 | 234 | 222.847562357434 | 11.1524376425660 |
| 66 | 264 | 244.403573681983 | 19.5964263180174 |
| 67 | 302 | 270.925436787527 | 31.0745632124733 |
| 68 | 293 | 288.463304382643 | 4.53669561735745 |
| 69 | 259 | 253.325573114433 | 5.67442688556693 |
| 70 | 229 | 228.457242585486 | 0.542757414514483 |
| 71 | 203 | 198.766723711057 | 4.23327628894268 |
| 72 | 229 | 226.32537093004 | 2.67462906995985 |
| 73 | 242 | 232.507697921117 | 9.49230207888297 |
| 74 | 233 | 226.155470683085 | 6.84452931691496 |
| 75 | 267 | 284.984135370836 | -17.9841353708361 |
| 76 | 269 | 271.954055875778 | -2.95405587577795 |
| 77 | 270 | 274.414364054023 | -4.41436405402328 |
| 78 | 315 | 301.110875438727 | 13.8891245612733 |
| 79 | 364 | 337.48148399703 | 26.5185160029703 |
| 80 | 347 | 335.985512136356 | 11.0144878636440 |
| 81 | 312 | 297.836655531173 | 14.163344468827 |
| 82 | 274 | 267.300437713930 | 6.69956228607032 |
| 83 | 237 | 236.992541506196 | 0.00745849380362529 |
| 84 | 278 | 266.900682035765 | 11.0993179642347 |
| 85 | 284 | 281.633930499988 | 2.36606950001163 |
| 86 | 277 | 269.967232749698 | 7.0327672503015 |
| 87 | 317 | 320.174971097683 | -3.17497109768345 |
| 88 | 313 | 321.276901514021 | -8.27690151402084 |
| 89 | 318 | 322.045741716532 | -4.04574171653167 |
| 90 | 374 | 367.951193908384 | 6.04880609161643 |
| 91 | 413 | 417.203241898467 | -4.20324189846684 |
| 92 | 405 | 394.606219282432 | 10.3937807175679 |
| 93 | 355 | 352.306636965003 | 2.69336303499716 |
| 94 | 306 | 308.449783989776 | -2.44978398977639 |
| 95 | 271 | 266.696313192658 | 4.30368680734244 |
| 96 | 306 | 309.394151440327 | -3.39415144032654 |
| 97 | 315 | 315.103159698907 | -0.103159698907064 |
| 98 | 301 | 304.405343346895 | -3.40534334689534 |
| 99 | 356 | 349.058165450357 | 6.94183454964292 |
| 100 | 348 | 349.292530352986 | -1.29253035298638 |
| 101 | 355 | 355.07317102392 | -0.0731710239201107 |
| 102 | 422 | 414.360938373302 | 7.63906162669832 |
| 103 | 465 | 462.091156275841 | 2.90884372415928 |
| 104 | 467 | 448.97971785273 | 18.0202821472701 |
| 105 | 404 | 397.635009922127 | 6.36499007787268 |
| 106 | 347 | 345.450966287893 | 1.54903371210713 |
| 107 | 305 | 304.243031112076 | 0.756968887923563 |
| 108 | 336 | 345.615225431214 | -9.6152254312135 |
| 109 | 340 | 352.616275490588 | -12.6162754905881 |
| 110 | 318 | 334.810864863463 | -16.8108648634631 |
| 111 | 362 | 386.941342201636 | -24.9413422016360 |
| 112 | 348 | 372.19081066778 | -24.1908106677798 |
| 113 | 363 | 372.090086438254 | -9.09008643825427 |
| 114 | 435 | 435.498520155351 | -0.498520155351457 |
| 115 | 491 | 478.418370094784 | 12.5816299052164 |
| 116 | 505 | 476.297754928993 | 28.7022450710072 |
| 117 | 404 | 417.219149854212 | -13.2191498542122 |
| 118 | 359 | 354.436902962756 | 4.56309703724361 |
| 119 | 310 | 311.876475452214 | -1.87647545221392 |
| 120 | 337 | 345.975115388032 | -8.97511538803184 |
| 121 | 360 | 350.643058140311 | 9.35694185968907 |
| 122 | 342 | 334.994580207103 | 7.00541979289682 |
| 123 | 406 | 390.685875425541 | 15.3141245744593 |
| 124 | 396 | 386.498865844795 | 9.50113415520485 |
| 125 | 420 | 407.130762273234 | 12.8692377267661 |
| 126 | 472 | 491.605011219989 | -19.6050112199886 |
| 127 | 548 | 543.780046558761 | 4.21995344123911 |
| 128 | 559 | 549.935327391731 | 9.06467260826867 |
| 129 | 463 | 449.63874670941 | 13.3612532905901 |
| 130 | 407 | 399.913034211778 | 7.08696578822219 |
| 131 | 362 | 348.39721266747 | 13.6027873325298 |
| 132 | 405 | 386.652084703312 | 18.3479152966885 |
| 133 | 417 | 413.916781467446 | 3.08321853255381 |
| 134 | 391 | 392.451160427232 | -1.45116042723186 |
| 135 | 419 | 460.170497130599 | -41.1704971305986 |
| 136 | 461 | 435.421755571338 | 25.5782444286622 |
| 137 | 472 | 465.095102857788 | 6.90489714221167 |
| 138 | 535 | 534.352674389889 | 0.647325610110556 |
| 139 | 622 | 616.735366186234 | 5.26463381376573 |
| 140 | 606 | 627.551069242217 | -21.5510692422174 |
| 141 | 508 | 510.133139879421 | -2.13313987942115 |
| 142 | 461 | 446.162791637769 | 14.8372083622311 |
| 143 | 390 | 395.452817969961 | -5.45281796996073 |
| 144 | 432 | 434.572452493994 | -2.57245249399358 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 447.055907793737 | 427.306081839849 | 466.805733747625 |
| 146 | 419.712252491671 | 399.132529133901 | 440.291975849441 |
| 147 | 464.867062938288 | 442.962936376511 | 486.771189500064 |
| 148 | 496.083938082048 | 472.83286932562 | 519.335006838475 |
| 149 | 507.532607460904 | 483.137451881794 | 531.927763040015 |
| 150 | 575.450839384529 | 548.708168067459 | 602.1935107016 |
| 151 | 666.592241551563 | 636.628745108617 | 696.555737994509 |
| 152 | 657.91364795573 | 627.18198410402 | 688.645311807441 |
| 153 | 550.308727275637 | 521.63972761337 | 578.977726937903 |
| 154 | 492.985286976114 | 465.015260234125 | 520.955313718102 |
| 155 | 420.2072394493 | 393.468712587960 | 446.94576631064 |
| 156 | 465.63445928396 | 443.300359438503 | 487.968559129416 |
