| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.892317039957039 |
| beta | 0.637835382133787 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 3855.8 | 3849.53009387408 | 6.26990612591726 |
| 14 | 3860.4 | 3864.82369864823 | -4.42369864822604 |
| 15 | 3855.1 | 3858.91748719337 | -3.81748719336747 |
| 16 | 3839.5 | 3841.8247905871 | -2.32479058710305 |
| 17 | 3833 | 3834.19969985771 | -1.19969985770558 |
| 18 | 3833.6 | 3833.43364314785 | 0.166356852148510 |
| 19 | 3826.8 | 3840.93065989168 | -14.1306598916790 |
| 20 | 3818.2 | 3811.00326413081 | 7.19673586919407 |
| 21 | 3811.4 | 3807.42024537009 | 3.97975462991508 |
| 22 | 3806.8 | 3807.36773811876 | -0.567738118757461 |
| 23 | 3810.3 | 3803.58227688331 | 6.71772311669474 |
| 24 | 3818.2 | 3802.71818193957 | 15.4818180604279 |
| 25 | 3858.9 | 3824.89226842743 | 34.0077315725721 |
| 26 | 3867.8 | 3887.21966999135 | -19.4196699913455 |
| 27 | 3872.3 | 3882.88471468827 | -10.5847146882652 |
| 28 | 3873.3 | 3870.86709559954 | 2.4329044004603 |
| 29 | 3876.7 | 3881.29822741484 | -4.59822741484231 |
| 30 | 3882.6 | 3889.48576212567 | -6.88576212567432 |
| 31 | 3883.5 | 3897.06539473905 | -13.5653947390542 |
| 32 | 3882.2 | 3877.99679139012 | 4.20320860987795 |
| 33 | 3888.1 | 3877.75117863627 | 10.3488213637256 |
| 34 | 3893.7 | 3892.94757223902 | 0.752427760975479 |
| 35 | 3901.9 | 3901.98838317014 | -0.0883831701371491 |
| 36 | 3914.3 | 3902.80222420262 | 11.4977757973820 |
| 37 | 3930.3 | 3928.11521863562 | 2.18478136437625 |
| 38 | 3948.3 | 3942.79350738877 | 5.5064926112309 |
| 39 | 3971.5 | 3962.31436404575 | 9.18563595424848 |
| 40 | 3990.1 | 3980.98904834867 | 9.11095165133156 |
| 41 | 3993 | 4012.23183109414 | -19.2318310941419 |
| 42 | 3998 | 4014.61995026851 | -16.6199502685085 |
| 43 | 4015.8 | 4014.90439035163 | 0.895609648369827 |
| 44 | 4041.2 | 4020.67514813521 | 20.5248518647863 |
| 45 | 4060.7 | 4054.92028150715 | 5.77971849284768 |
| 46 | 4076.7 | 4081.77150743348 | -5.07150743348393 |
| 47 | 4103 | 4099.1263864333 | 3.87361356669680 |
| 48 | 4125.3 | 4120.26719472626 | 5.03280527374227 |
| 49 | 4139.7 | 4150.96422013967 | -11.2642201396657 |
| 50 | 4146.7 | 4158.38153890182 | -11.6815389018202 |
| 51 | 4158 | 4157.49720918301 | 0.502790816988636 |
| 52 | 4155.1 | 4157.58286774021 | -2.48286774021199 |
| 53 | 4144.8 | 4158.25524055099 | -13.4552405509930 |
| 54 | 4148.2 | 4152.60315481844 | -4.40315481843663 |
| 55 | 4142.5 | 4159.38170602198 | -16.8817060219781 |
| 56 | 4142.1 | 4134.57999945594 | 7.52000054405744 |
| 57 | 4145.4 | 4131.31658535965 | 14.0834146403540 |
| 58 | 4146.3 | 4144.8958293194 | 1.40417068059924 |
| 59 | 4143.5 | 4153.23768022431 | -9.73768022430613 |
| 60 | 4149.2 | 4138.76658286933 | 10.4334171306718 |
| 61 | 4158.9 | 4152.03540078109 | 6.86459921891128 |
| 62 | 4166.1 | 4165.40295922001 | 0.697040779987219 |
| 63 | 4179.1 | 4173.74127722054 | 5.35872277946328 |
| 64 | 4194.4 | 4177.41001842248 | 16.9899815775198 |
| 65 | 4211.7 | 4204.89654688303 | 6.80345311696783 |
| 66 | 4226.3 | 4240.63916135374 | -14.3391613537424 |
| 67 | 4235.8 | 4254.0367061512 | -18.2367061512032 |
| 68 | 4243.6 | 4246.60749624002 | -3.0074962400231 |
| 69 | 4258.7 | 4244.4552500071 | 14.2447499928994 |
| 70 | 4278.2 | 4266.71732052612 | 11.4826794738838 |
| 71 | 4298 | 4298.66598326539 | -0.665983265386785 |
| 72 | 4315.1 | 4315.30603415217 | -0.206034152173743 |
| 73 | 4334.3 | 4333.53628359973 | 0.763716400270823 |
| 74 | 4356 | 4352.12627323457 | 3.87372676542873 |
| 75 | 4374 | 4376.9981395221 | -2.99813952209843 |
| 76 | 4395.5 | 4382.3587164746 | 13.1412835254023 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 77 | 4411.06916759503 | 4390.6524880597 | 4431.48584713037 |
| 78 | 4440.92794829645 | 4404.75174630854 | 4477.10415028436 |
| 79 | 4477.68752859277 | 4422.53731975864 | 4532.83773742690 |
| 80 | 4509.3492702715 | 4432.64454073959 | 4586.0539998034 |
| 81 | 4534.24672071274 | 4433.81340119611 | 4634.68004022937 |
| 82 | 4557.80957642029 | 4431.63886347340 | 4683.98028936718 |
| 83 | 4586.2815576748 | 4432.33915528869 | 4740.2239600609 |
| 84 | 4611.84193461819 | 4428.43903075032 | 4795.24483848606 |
| 85 | 4638.84775115004 | 4424.25185822533 | 4853.44364407474 |
| 86 | 4665.09501819883 | 4417.74770328521 | 4912.44233311245 |
| 87 | 4691.5859107927 | 4409.95803114562 | 4973.21379043979 |
| 88 | 4708.19832144278 | 4392.15577222294 | 5024.24087066262 |
