| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.3969420535359 |
| beta | 0.0141114199930199 |
| gamma | 0.748470071977163 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 128 | 132.711239909822 | -4.71123990982153 |
| 14 | 158 | 162.035845855414 | -4.03584585541398 |
| 15 | 186 | 189.872729176268 | -3.87272917626845 |
| 16 | 165 | 167.325171462959 | -2.32517146295910 |
| 17 | 191 | 193.090291447698 | -2.09029144769787 |
| 18 | 168 | 169.380749569493 | -1.38074956949299 |
| 19 | 171 | 166.774396501205 | 4.22560349879512 |
| 20 | 169 | 186.777689862744 | -17.7776898627438 |
| 21 | 157 | 156.534747806337 | 0.465252193663417 |
| 22 | 175 | 169.184439823387 | 5.81556017661254 |
| 23 | 156 | 159.642212085019 | -3.64221208501897 |
| 24 | 129 | 126.631551486938 | 2.36844851306249 |
| 25 | 89 | 108.830295004100 | -19.8302950041004 |
| 26 | 138 | 125.106364265537 | 12.8936357344631 |
| 27 | 146 | 153.961101046977 | -7.96110104697655 |
| 28 | 151 | 133.902275236164 | 17.0977247638365 |
| 29 | 156 | 163.126103617622 | -7.12610361762194 |
| 30 | 129 | 141.027605450006 | -12.0276054500063 |
| 31 | 146 | 136.140747444941 | 9.85925255505938 |
| 32 | 141 | 146.248096189310 | -5.24809618931027 |
| 33 | 137 | 131.271768777750 | 5.72823122224952 |
| 34 | 155 | 145.858081541908 | 9.14191845809154 |
| 35 | 147 | 135.375101306355 | 11.6248986936453 |
| 36 | 128 | 114.087791333242 | 13.9122086667578 |
| 37 | 92 | 92.2353524910681 | -0.235352491068141 |
| 38 | 136 | 131.168645094079 | 4.83135490592053 |
| 39 | 159 | 147.241885864638 | 11.7581141353619 |
| 40 | 131 | 146.173778234449 | -15.1737782344485 |
| 41 | 134 | 151.040510383096 | -17.0405103830955 |
| 42 | 148 | 124.345875484610 | 23.6541245153904 |
| 43 | 146 | 143.971765071542 | 2.02823492845809 |
| 44 | 144 | 144.413956293347 | -0.413956293347411 |
| 45 | 161 | 136.467013630232 | 24.5329863697678 |
| 46 | 140 | 161.582316185765 | -21.5823161857653 |
| 47 | 141 | 140.160193470417 | 0.839806529582859 |
| 48 | 139 | 116.277663083602 | 22.7223369163978 |
| 49 | 94 | 91.848941326368 | 2.15105867363202 |
| 50 | 136 | 134.546400716189 | 1.45359928381100 |
| 51 | 164 | 152.486690360291 | 11.5133096397090 |
| 52 | 141 | 139.120640030229 | 1.87935996977117 |
| 53 | 159 | 150.461714255734 | 8.53828574426637 |
| 54 | 162 | 151.949611720761 | 10.0503882792389 |
| 55 | 154 | 156.979452763920 | -2.97945276392025 |
| 56 | 166 | 154.717299411202 | 11.2827005887980 |
| 57 | 156 | 162.851672916130 | -6.85167291613024 |
| 58 | 147 | 154.32957591457 | -7.32957591457014 |
| 59 | 161 | 148.949120545191 | 12.0508794548088 |
| 60 | 135 | 137.762111693425 | -2.76211169342454 |
| 61 | 98 | 93.7205973380399 | 4.27940266196015 |
| 62 | 150 | 137.964534977068 | 12.0354650229324 |
| 63 | 173 | 166.013248273733 | 6.98675172626656 |
| 64 | 144 | 145.910747362506 | -1.91074736250616 |
| 65 | 167 | 159.402501000478 | 7.59749899952249 |
| 66 | 161 | 161.341465694832 | -0.341465694831726 |
| 67 | 156 | 156.534217737577 | -0.534217737576796 |
| 68 | 175 | 161.833419625711 | 13.1665803742893 |
| 69 | 163 | 162.641897115592 | 0.35810288440814 |
| 70 | 159 | 156.775253184924 | 2.22474681507646 |
| 71 | 167 | 164.560784749759 | 2.43921525024095 |
| 72 | 148 | 142.226560399564 | 5.77343960043552 |
| 73 | 119 | 102.288675977653 | 16.7113240223466 |
| 74 | 150 | 160.756366135467 | -10.7563661354669 |
| 75 | 161 | 178.968330529485 | -17.9683305294851 |
| 76 | 136 | 145.093550740936 | -9.0935507409362 |
| 77 | 166 | 159.693641972541 | 6.3063580274586 |
| 78 | 155 | 157.718226366012 | -2.71822636601217 |
| 79 | 140 | 152.069585565496 | -12.0695855654961 |
| 80 | 141 | 158.102515288249 | -17.1025152882493 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 81 | 142.136324689947 | 124.722436441939 | 159.550212937954 |
| 82 | 137.371135600819 | 118.188185783879 | 156.554085417759 |
| 83 | 143.141605675039 | 121.884313834243 | 164.398897515835 |
| 84 | 124.117359846772 | 102.392175413404 | 145.842544280141 |
| 85 | 92.0418734606554 | 71.1085742980996 | 112.975172623211 |
| 86 | 122.651450473787 | 96.6429781166018 | 148.659922830972 |
| 87 | 137.486923677882 | 107.826741531098 | 167.147105824666 |
| 88 | 118.012501193463 | 89.772109282876 | 146.252893104049 |
| 89 | 139.307014715856 | 105.863473255490 | 172.750556176223 |
| 90 | 131.770352833650 | 98.2106089764762 | 165.330096690825 |
| 91 | 123.887319052283 | 90.3695367839728 | 157.405101320592 |
| 92 | 130.841112342868 | 93.385530154248 | 168.296694531489 |
