| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.72210178265567 |
| beta | 0.166056440303876 |
| gamma | 0.526285174526362 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 458100 | 456110.202991453 | 1989.79700854671 |
| 14 | 424800 | 425004.865593658 | -204.865593658236 |
| 15 | 420600 | 419648.526389863 | 951.473610136658 |
| 16 | 400100 | 399870.439322215 | 229.560677785252 |
| 17 | 393000 | 394440.250846746 | -1440.25084674591 |
| 18 | 387100 | 388789.921848848 | -1689.92184884817 |
| 19 | 377500 | 401119.167035188 | -23619.1670351877 |
| 20 | 400400 | 369189.432424069 | 31210.5675759307 |
| 21 | 391400 | 375198.961868016 | 16201.0381319843 |
| 22 | 363600 | 391541.910847728 | -27941.9108477278 |
| 23 | 431000 | 442796.152883703 | -11796.1528837035 |
| 24 | 441700 | 437590.63627907 | 4109.3637209296 |
| 25 | 448500 | 448400.122472225 | 99.877527774719 |
| 26 | 415600 | 413943.501733976 | 1656.49826602405 |
| 27 | 408000 | 408657.979521394 | -657.979521393776 |
| 28 | 416600 | 385976.735997483 | 30623.2640025173 |
| 29 | 409300 | 404258.792081331 | 5041.20791866921 |
| 30 | 387600 | 406038.523504067 | -18438.5235040669 |
| 31 | 394500 | 403844.323886398 | -9344.32388639846 |
| 32 | 407600 | 392731.20644704 | 14868.7935529604 |
| 33 | 378500 | 385275.251196561 | -6775.25119656051 |
| 34 | 359600 | 376345.970560008 | -16745.9705600080 |
| 35 | 435700 | 437163.75937287 | -1463.75937287020 |
| 36 | 433800 | 442102.0383933 | -8302.03839330014 |
| 37 | 427700 | 442231.09486336 | -14531.0948633598 |
| 38 | 413300 | 394550.957745937 | 18749.0422540632 |
| 39 | 379500 | 400432.925349469 | -20932.9253494691 |
| 40 | 379300 | 364418.377885252 | 14881.6221147476 |
| 41 | 353700 | 362436.593457869 | -8736.59345786914 |
| 42 | 378200 | 344025.958526124 | 34174.0414738762 |
| 43 | 380600 | 380654.807107233 | -54.8071072332677 |
| 44 | 394000 | 380406.188102491 | 13593.8118975091 |
| 45 | 374000 | 369326.425344617 | 4673.57465538307 |
| 46 | 375000 | 369041.313169605 | 5958.68683039455 |
| 47 | 437600 | 453046.968847030 | -15446.9688470304 |
| 48 | 443900 | 449768.815091445 | -5868.81509144505 |
| 49 | 488800 | 453916.642175515 | 34883.3578244845 |
| 50 | 463900 | 455884.141180162 | 8015.8588198385 |
| 51 | 440000 | 456023.038716392 | -16023.0387163921 |
| 52 | 453800 | 437191.698319878 | 16608.3016801223 |
| 53 | 451600 | 441609.3048095 | 9990.69519050024 |
| 54 | 453400 | 453849.904905493 | -449.904905493138 |
| 55 | 461400 | 467171.285456483 | -5771.28545648284 |
| 56 | 509100 | 470806.129037958 | 38293.8709620417 |
| 57 | 540600 | 485234.66123353 | 55365.3387664703 |
| 58 | 555100 | 536797.502564743 | 18302.4974352574 |
| 59 | 677400 | 643121.519166597 | 34278.4808334028 |
| 60 | 694600 | 699649.133031355 | -5049.13303135522 |
| 61 | 750100 | 732945.389559606 | 17154.6104403938 |
| 62 | 733900 | 738651.98810968 | -4751.98810967989 |
| 63 | 709300 | 744994.965640613 | -35694.9656406129 |
| 64 | 720500 | 733311.635511074 | -12811.6355110742 |
| 65 | 693200 | 728570.158091934 | -35370.1580919340 |
| 66 | 687200 | 714142.379235556 | -26942.3792355565 |
| 67 | 686800 | 711992.272405551 | -25192.2724055512 |
| 68 | 720900 | 710156.162817277 | 10743.8371827226 |
| 69 | 653100 | 705992.300529198 | -52892.3005291984 |
| 70 | 624700 | 659785.162104691 | -35085.1621046915 |
| 71 | 690000 | 709316.33848042 | -19316.3384804192 |
| 72 | 717800 | 694386.629190983 | 23413.3708090172 |
| 73 | 736500 | 727891.420216316 | 8608.57978368353 |
| 74 | 699900 | 699606.571721198 | 293.42827880173 |
| 75 | 675600 | 681055.900500962 | -5455.90050096181 |
| 76 | 635600 | 674169.553348291 | -38569.5533482911 |
| 77 | 632500 | 624054.875091511 | 8445.12490848894 |
| 78 | 594900 | 624278.564665846 | -29378.5646658456 |
| 79 | 604000 | 602112.901996055 | 1887.09800394485 |
| 80 | 620800 | 609821.379721913 | 10978.6202780871 |
| 81 | 578400 | 581282.922391457 | -2882.92239145702 |
| 82 | 571200 | 564551.501280488 | 6648.49871951155 |
| 83 | 627400 | 642288.642367468 | -14888.6423674682 |
| 84 | 657700 | 633100.247268105 | 24599.7527318948 |
| 85 | 674100 | 661733.418143216 | 12366.5818567839 |
| 86 | 672800 | 631833.675580041 | 40966.3244199587 |
| 87 | 615300 | 643576.755006667 | -28276.7550066673 |
| 88 | 609100 | 614396.633292866 | -5296.63329286571 |
| 89 | 607600 | 598202.405177393 | 9397.59482260747 |
| 90 | 566900 | 596714.17436561 | -29814.1743656107 |
| 91 | 572700 | 581886.596951374 | -9186.59695137397 |
| 92 | 589200 | 584680.486362894 | 4519.51363710559 |
| 93 | 534800 | 550428.162993806 | -15628.1629938064 |
| 94 | 543100 | 525336.67772822 | 17763.3222717802 |
| 95 | 591100 | 608732.031598043 | -17632.0315980432 |
| 96 | 624800 | 603791.061462657 | 21008.9385373431 |
| 97 | 665300 | 628064.685941003 | 37235.3140589965 |
| 98 | 642600 | 623310.052335563 | 19289.9476644371 |
| 99 | 608700 | 609678.851893173 | -978.851893173298 |
| 100 | 594500 | 607250.132641147 | -12750.1326411475 |
| 101 | 563800 | 590607.668115761 | -26807.6681157607 |
| 102 | 596100 | 555684.188492627 | 40415.8115073731 |
| 103 | 597600 | 601451.424859782 | -3851.4248597821 |
| 104 | 633100 | 617606.91574811 | 15493.0842518904 |
| 105 | 591000 | 597152.286469738 | -6152.28646973835 |
| 106 | 584200 | 593743.557929223 | -9543.55792922259 |
| 107 | 655800 | 658926.085284109 | -3126.08528410888 |
| 108 | 670700 | 678532.895361163 | -7832.89536116295 |
| 109 | 699700 | 689316.158772017 | 10383.8412279827 |
| 110 | 712900 | 664290.912528427 | 48609.0874715734 |
| 111 | 652000 | 674125.83608096 | -22125.8360809603 |
| 112 | 635100 | 657428.628884928 | -22328.6288849284 |
| 113 | 603100 | 633388.374795499 | -30288.3747954987 |
| 114 | 610100 | 606940.610155797 | 3159.38984420313 |
| 115 | 602000 | 616020.721919631 | -14020.7219196314 |
| 116 | 597600 | 623132.806191955 | -25532.8061919553 |
| 117 | 585400 | 560438.846907558 | 24961.1530924417 |
| 118 | 567100 | 573283.258627779 | -6183.25862777897 |
| 119 | 620600 | 636515.831738768 | -15915.8317387683 |
| 120 | 646200 | 639350.129061088 | 6849.87093891227 |
| 121 | 644800 | 658312.089330393 | -13512.089330393 |
| 122 | 645200 | 613668.760269021 | 31531.2397309791 |
| 123 | 644800 | 590825.32271599 | 53974.6772840095 |
| 124 | 593000 | 628174.787039401 | -35174.7870394011 |
| 125 | 569100 | 591277.792871466 | -22177.7928714656 |
| 126 | 518800 | 574134.72669012 | -55334.7266901197 |
| 127 | 538700 | 530005.641444702 | 8694.35855529818 |
| 128 | 554600 | 546102.562080514 | 8497.43791948631 |
| 129 | 507900 | 513713.307731813 | -5813.30773181305 |
| 130 | 488400 | 494436.761768649 | -6036.76176864904 |
| 131 | 563300 | 551025.583121577 | 12274.4168784230 |
| 132 | 592400 | 575599.8481736 | 16800.1518264000 |
| 133 | 598100 | 598016.21688567 | 83.7831143303774 |
| 134 | 546300 | 570655.82709393 | -24355.8270939301 |
| 135 | 516100 | 504914.857770091 | 11185.1422299088 |
| 136 | 518500 | 487372.787012117 | 31127.2129878835 |
| 137 | 477400 | 497248.998142214 | -19848.9981422142 |
| 138 | 483400 | 474213.033352635 | 9186.9666473646 |
| 139 | 469400 | 491051.242243692 | -21651.2422436916 |
| 140 | 501300 | 486579.592630754 | 14720.4073692461 |
| 141 | 457400 | 458709.992601083 | -1309.99260108336 |
| 142 | 446700 | 445311.645143883 | 1388.35485611670 |
| 143 | 501900 | 513489.60504465 | -11589.6050446497 |
| 144 | 550400 | 522181.367057606 | 28218.6329423937 |
| 145 | 593700 | 552455.240656638 | 41244.7593433616 |
| 146 | 548900 | 558235.510075241 | -9335.51007524051 |
| 147 | 534200 | 517332.446719688 | 16867.5532803118 |
| 148 | 550500 | 516285.342497639 | 34214.6575023613 |
| 149 | 541800 | 530780.842636378 | 11019.1573636224 |
| 150 | 569300 | 547828.135275595 | 21471.8647244048 |
| 151 | 587400 | 584046.855983807 | 3353.14401619346 |
| 152 | 627700 | 620968.441800153 | 6731.55819984747 |
| 153 | 607000 | 602045.668702095 | 4954.3312979046 |
| 154 | 629500 | 611376.691582641 | 18123.3084173588 |
| 155 | 704600 | 709558.846477612 | -4958.84647761239 |
| 156 | 767700 | 749473.815590269 | 18226.1844097311 |
| 157 | 812200 | 793852.074557298 | 18347.9254427025 |
| 158 | 824600 | 792370.226806797 | 32229.7731932029 |
| 159 | 856300 | 806967.182061419 | 49332.817938581 |
| 160 | 812200 | 857446.63846711 | -45246.6384671098 |
| 161 | 764100 | 827188.647590749 | -63088.6475907486 |
| 162 | 801700 | 799383.148792731 | 2316.85120726866 |
| 163 | 806000 | 823955.038318916 | -17955.0383189163 |
| 164 | 867200 | 848263.964963471 | 18936.0350365289 |
| 165 | 801600 | 841637.486542566 | -40037.4865425657 |
| 166 | 817500 | 818754.242367754 | -1254.24236775434 |
| 167 | 920900 | 895592.820132009 | 25307.1798679914 |
| 168 | 959700 | 960407.863986725 | -707.863986724522 |
| 169 | 997700 | 988515.269123966 | 9184.7308760339 |
| 170 | 949100 | 978731.829726943 | -29631.8297269433 |
| 171 | 910900 | 940026.88748547 | -29126.8874854703 |
| 172 | 920400 | 899476.870710817 | 20923.1292891834 |
| 173 | 914200 | 901784.13735823 | 12415.8626417693 |
| 174 | 926300 | 934513.506813203 | -8213.50681320345 |
| 175 | 906400 | 943701.005234177 | -37301.005234177 |
| 176 | 926100 | 952300.30122322 | -26200.3012232207 |
| 177 | 902500 | 891908.0852731 | 10591.9147268991 |
| 178 | 895300 | 904779.957068015 | -9479.95706801547 |
| 179 | 979900 | 972100.437234532 | 7799.56276546803 |
| 180 | 1009700 | 1010906.06963403 | -1206.06963402720 |
| 181 | 1043800 | 1030478.47542918 | 13321.5245708239 |
| 182 | 979800 | 1008879.12468186 | -29079.1246818635 |
| 183 | 921600 | 961587.384701492 | -39987.3847014921 |
| 184 | 923500 | 910152.949105054 | 13347.0508949463 |
| 185 | 914500 | 894474.816642083 | 20025.1833579167 |
| 186 | 891700 | 919323.719219721 | -27623.7192197209 |
| 187 | 916000 | 897555.3931662 | 18444.6068337996 |
| 188 | 931700 | 942031.130206948 | -10331.1302069485 |
| 189 | 902400 | 894380.851889577 | 8019.14811042347 |
| 190 | 893700 | 898052.621826747 | -4352.62182674708 |
| 191 | 941500 | 967810.854062996 | -26310.8540629956 |
| 192 | 980100 | 972786.118538922 | 7313.8814610776 |
| 193 | 1006900 | 993775.067192426 | 13124.9328075737 |
| 194 | 949200 | 958948.488004216 | -9748.48800421564 |
| 195 | 883200 | 919453.974778265 | -36253.9747782646 |
| 196 | 849900 | 874397.38526633 | -24497.3852663293 |
| 197 | 839200 | 823712.091444627 | 15487.9085553734 |
| 198 | 803900 | 829115.399688619 | -25215.3996886188 |
| 199 | 797900 | 806912.178655593 | -9012.17865559319 |
| 200 | 830800 | 815148.819526314 | 15651.1804736863 |
| 201 | 753300 | 779855.79613657 | -26555.7961365693 |
| 202 | 764100 | 743517.236156056 | 20582.7638439441 |
| 203 | 807600 | 817825.591507595 | -10225.5915075951 |
| 204 | 853700 | 831018.282997562 | 22681.7170024378 |
| 205 | 886200 | 857481.500594175 | 28718.4994058247 |
| 206 | 815700 | 825966.799760484 | -10266.7997604843 |
| 207 | 743000 | 777556.395096687 | -34556.395096687 |
| 208 | 753600 | 730983.540171065 | 22616.4598289349 |
| 209 | 724800 | 721355.104686766 | 3444.89531323384 |
| 210 | 709600 | 711852.917331436 | -2252.91733143583 |
| 211 | 721900 | 711097.945865927 | 10802.0541340732 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 212 | 742122.7240281 | 699575.884474405 | 784669.563581794 |
| 213 | 692351.437380277 | 636730.768240965 | 747972.10651959 |
| 214 | 688263.759814781 | 619208.319910993 | 757319.199718569 |
| 215 | 746916.061654926 | 663926.456031525 | 829905.667278328 |
| 216 | 777244.267408808 | 679768.231018893 | 874720.303798722 |
| 217 | 790430.902167649 | 677898.155299443 | 902963.649035854 |
| 218 | 731252.175360743 | 603090.34315282 | 859414.007568667 |
| 219 | 686709.48836395 | 542351.799711872 | 831067.177016029 |
| 220 | 677601.742217359 | 516490.797576544 | 838712.686858174 |
| 221 | 650276.208513364 | 471865.743247826 | 828686.673778902 |
| 222 | 638478.253877957 | 442233.836317312 | 834722.671438603 |
| 223 | 642554.726615533 | 427953.876998094 | 857155.576232973 |
