| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0887765523093223 |
| gamma | 0.518290651633152 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2042 | 1916.84015491453 | 125.159845085471 |
| 14 | 2061.41 | 2073.58958995384 | -12.1795899538370 |
| 15 | 2065.81 | 2076.94791128253 | -11.1379112825284 |
| 16 | 2091.48 | 2098.11370925227 | -6.63370925227082 |
| 17 | 2120.88 | 2122.76687474917 | -1.8868747491656 |
| 18 | 2174.56 | 2173.87228118096 | 0.687718819038764 |
| 19 | 2196.72 | 2228.46166782001 | -31.7416678200075 |
| 20 | 2197.82 | 2201.51041865307 | -3.69041865306599 |
| 21 | 2214.95 | 2216.08779600847 | -1.13779600846965 |
| 22 | 2304.98 | 2232.97261973494 | 72.0073802650613 |
| 23 | 2350.44 | 2345.94018669570 | 4.49981330430319 |
| 24 | 2407.6 | 2383.63133127356 | 23.9686687264434 |
| 25 | 2408.64 | 2449.6908537132 | -41.0508537132 |
| 26 | 2440.25 | 2439.49316711785 | 0.756832882145773 |
| 27 | 2448.05 | 2456.19993946514 | -8.14993946514005 |
| 28 | 2452.62 | 2481.03099927123 | -28.4109992712279 |
| 29 | 2472.81 | 2482.6508520416 | -9.8408520415992 |
| 30 | 2497.84 | 2523.84013179223 | -26.0001317922256 |
| 31 | 2555.28 | 2547.41026306546 | 7.86973693454229 |
| 32 | 2604.42 | 2559.25557784475 | 45.1644221552451 |
| 33 | 2638.53 | 2626.21011953074 | 12.3198804692597 |
| 34 | 2641.65 | 2661.269669377 | -19.6196693769971 |
| 35 | 2645.64 | 2679.19290277226 | -33.5529027722582 |
| 36 | 2659.81 | 2672.03585841083 | -12.2258584108349 |
| 37 | 2720.25 | 2691.89215551876 | 28.3578444812356 |
| 38 | 2735.7 | 2747.2563338494 | -11.5563338493994 |
| 39 | 2745.88 | 2746.70998570625 | -0.829985706248408 |
| 40 | 2756.76 | 2774.57088577011 | -17.8108857701141 |
| 41 | 2767.63 | 2783.4417800712 | -15.8117800712025 |
| 42 | 2794.83 | 2814.78098141727 | -19.9509814172734 |
| 43 | 2799.43 | 2841.05813540519 | -41.6281354051944 |
| 44 | 2803.47 | 2795.66919973152 | 7.80080026847736 |
| 45 | 2811.7 | 2814.20672788461 | -2.50672788461179 |
| 46 | 2833.18 | 2822.07002255877 | 11.1099774412291 |
| 47 | 2845.26 | 2861.08132805224 | -15.8213280522368 |
| 48 | 2848.96 | 2863.58843176147 | -14.6284317614727 |
| 49 | 2849.27 | 2872.76143669066 | -23.4914366906628 |
| 50 | 2863.36 | 2863.39261459914 | -0.0326145991393787 |
| 51 | 2882.6 | 2862.50930252081 | 20.0906974791924 |
| 52 | 2892.63 | 2901.28746870983 | -8.65746870983185 |
| 53 | 2897.06 | 2910.12097181938 | -13.0609718193814 |
| 54 | 2915.02 | 2935.26438043811 | -20.2443804381132 |
| 55 | 2921.44 | 2952.27548747251 | -30.8354874725128 |
| 56 | 2962.34 | 2909.66468587259 | 52.6753141274071 |
| 57 | 2981.85 | 2969.04601865264 | 12.8039813473647 |
| 58 | 2987.1 | 2989.54854530582 | -2.44854530581961 |
| 59 | 2995.55 | 3011.12617189540 | -15.5761718953950 |
| 60 | 3012.61 | 3010.02503972301 | 2.58496027698720 |
| 61 | 3013.24 | 3034.08619025093 | -20.8461902509262 |
| 62 | 3030.29 | 3025.27220401833 | 5.01779598166922 |
| 63 | 3032.6 | 3027.79724997911 | 4.80275002089047 |
| 64 | 3032.93 | 3048.2882049009 | -15.3582049009001 |
| 65 | 3045.78 | 3046.82683975347 | -1.04683975347189 |
| 66 | 3047.03 | 3081.45682159600 | -34.4268215960042 |
| 67 | 3061.26 | 3080.49886040108 | -19.2388604010766 |
| 68 | 3080.58 | 3046.72756737098 | 33.8524326290240 |
| 69 | 3097.31 | 3082.85786962706 | 14.4521303729357 |
| 70 | 3106.22 | 3100.72671326843 | 5.49328673156879 |
| 71 | 3110.52 | 3126.66938832531 | -16.1493883253056 |
| 72 | 3119.31 | 3121.36736797455 | -2.05736797454892 |
| 73 | 3142.95 | 3136.7463886056 | 6.20361139439774 |
| 74 | 3161.69 | 3153.34379050373 | 8.3462094962697 |
| 75 | 3257.16 | 3157.85432154099 | 99.3056784590049 |
| 76 | 3277.01 | 3279.89492063266 | -2.88492063265585 |
| 77 | 3295.32 | 3299.06089065854 | -3.74089065853696 |
| 78 | 3363.99 | 3338.91170394997 | 25.0782960500283 |
| 79 | 3494.17 | 3410.65640194442 | 83.513598055581 |
| 80 | 3504.37 | 3501.95711791741 | 2.41288208259266 |
| 81 | 3570.12 | 3526.17632526983 | 43.9436747301711 |
| 82 | 3667.03 | 3595.68332654151 | 71.3466734584918 |
| 83 | 3674.4 | 3715.47223822989 | -41.0722382298923 |
| 84 | 3701.61 | 3711.02765319088 | -9.4176531908829 |
| 85 | 3720.98 | 3744.17325307642 | -23.1932530764170 |
| 86 | 3801.06 | 3753.89090269812 | 47.1690973018781 |
| 87 | 3801.06 | 3823.18799586546 | -22.1279958654600 |
| 88 | 3813.06 | 3838.97813201634 | -25.9181320163420 |
| 89 | 3844.49 | 3848.24929294697 | -3.75929294696743 |
| 90 | 3857.62 | 3901.21847254668 | -43.5984725466801 |
| 91 | 3862.27 | 3911.32628380137 | -49.056283801367 |
| 92 | 3895.51 | 3865.32790272304 | 30.1820972769592 |
| 93 | 3917.96 | 3915.05236526075 | 2.90763473924517 |
| 94 | 3970.1 | 3937.61632838161 | 32.4836716183877 |
| 95 | 4105.18 | 4009.18511675424 | 95.9948832457599 |
| 96 | 4116.68 | 4144.6188781948 | -27.9388781948019 |
| 97 | 4138.52 | 4160.41022757995 | -21.8902275799446 |
| 98 | 4199.75 | 4172.7135553128 | 27.0364446872036 |
| 99 | 4202.52 | 4221.37334099216 | -18.8533409921629 |
| 100 | 4290.89 | 4240.2241897127 | 50.6658102873016 |
| 101 | 4296.49 | 4332.6642090033 | -36.1742090032985 |
| 102 | 4356.98 | 4356.92570411213 | 0.0542958878668287 |
| 103 | 4435.23 | 4418.26885764720 | 16.9611423528031 |
| 104 | 4443.91 | 4451.73127605517 | -7.82127605517326 |
| 105 | 4502.64 | 4473.52193013234 | 29.1180698676644 |
| 106 | 4562.84 | 4534.69276531842 | 28.147234681579 |
| 107 | 4591.27 | 4613.93657977049 | -22.6665797704927 |
| 108 | 4621.4 | 4632.18598563249 | -10.7859856324922 |
| 109 | 4696.96 | 4668.13010968145 | 28.8298903185523 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 110 | 4738.65619461405 | 4675.7402815835 | 4801.5721076446 |
| 111 | 4765.38197256144 | 4672.3720272642 | 4858.39191785867 |
| 112 | 4809.86233384215 | 4690.95182920173 | 4928.77283848258 |
| 113 | 4853.91477845621 | 4710.78064080881 | 4997.0489161036 |
| 114 | 4919.84013973692 | 4753.23802588022 | 5086.44225359363 |
| 115 | 4986.61383435098 | 4796.85411329068 | 5176.37355541127 |
| 116 | 5007.09419563169 | 4794.23922569959 | 5219.9491655638 |
| 117 | 5041.37955691241 | 4805.34117341531 | 5277.41794040952 |
| 118 | 5075.52075152646 | 4816.11414561032 | 5334.92735744261 |
| 119 | 5126.20694614052 | 4843.18284993936 | 5409.23104234167 |
| 120 | 5168.72480742123 | 4861.78984904207 | 5475.6597658004 |
| 121 | 5218.01433536862 | 4886.84448347111 | 5549.18418726612 |
