| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| y[t] = + 16229.9336419753 + 3468.73015873016x[t] + 19844.4599924253M1[t] + 16025.1749536472M2[t] + 19386.5822225614M3[t] + 17522.8649493511M4[t] + 13797.7337567268M5[t] + 13960.6025641026M6[t] + 9499.3944484014M7[t] + 6171.26325577715M8[t] + 8077.59360161444M9[t] + 12002.2316397594M10[t] + 6755.04785929092M11[t] -36.8688073757518t + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | 16229.9336419753 | 879.86377 | 18.446 | 0 | 0 |
| x | 3468.73015873016 | 878.925248 | 3.9466 | 0.000125 | 6.2e-05 |
| M1 | 19844.4599924253 | 1168.366142 | 16.9848 | 0 | 0 |
| M2 | 16025.1749536472 | 1168.271046 | 13.717 | 0 | 0 |
| M3 | 19386.5822225614 | 1168.197078 | 16.5953 | 0 | 0 |
| M4 | 17522.8649493511 | 1095.446352 | 15.9961 | 0 | 0 |
| M5 | 13797.7337567268 | 1095.412544 | 12.5959 | 0 | 0 |
| M6 | 13960.6025641026 | 1095.401274 | 12.7447 | 0 | 0 |
| M7 | 9499.3944484014 | 1095.412544 | 8.672 | 0 | 0 |
| M8 | 6171.26325577715 | 1095.446352 | 5.6336 | 0 | 0 |
| M9 | 8077.59360161444 | 1095.502696 | 7.3734 | 0 | 0 |
| M10 | 12002.2316397594 | 1095.581572 | 10.9551 | 0 | 0 |
| M11 | 6755.04785929092 | 1117.105545 | 6.0469 | 0 | 0 |
| t | -36.8688073757518 | 4.968841 | -7.42 | 0 | 0 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.928114962499126 |
| R-squared | 0.861397383614755 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.848527140664696 |
| F-TEST (value) | 66.9293801956427 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 13 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 140 |
| p-value | 0 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 2736.31150599019 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 1048236092.094 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 35466 | 36037.5248270248 | -571.524827024835 |
| 2 | 25954 | 32181.370980871 | -6227.37098087098 |
| 3 | 33504 | 35505.9094424095 | -2001.90944240946 |
| 4 | 28115 | 33605.3233618234 | -5490.32336182337 |
| 5 | 28501 | 29843.3233618234 | -1342.32336182338 |
| 6 | 28618 | 29969.3233618234 | -1351.32336182337 |
| 7 | 21434 | 25471.2464387464 | -4037.24643874643 |
| 8 | 20177 | 22106.2464387464 | -1929.24643874643 |
| 9 | 21484 | 23975.7079772080 | -2491.70797720797 |
| 10 | 25642 | 27863.4772079772 | -2221.47720797721 |
| 11 | 23515 | 22579.4246201330 | 935.575379867049 |
| 12 | 12941 | 15787.5079534663 | -2846.50795346629 |
| 13 | 36190 | 39063.8292972460 | -2873.82929724596 |
| 14 | 37785 | 35207.6754510921 | 2577.32454890788 |
| 15 | 38407 | 38532.2139126306 | -125.213912630577 |
| 16 | 33326 | 33162.8976733143 | 163.102326685662 |
| 17 | 30304 | 29400.8976733143 | 903.10232668566 |
| 18 | 27576 | 29526.8976733143 | -1950.89767331434 |
| 19 | 27048 | 25028.8207502374 | 2019.17924976258 |
| 20 | 17291 | 21663.8207502374 | -4372.82075023742 |
| 21 | 21018 | 23533.2822886990 | -2515.28228869895 |
| 22 | 26792 | 27421.0515194682 | -629.051519468185 |
| 23 | 19426 | 22136.9989316239 | -2710.99893162393 |
| 24 | 13927 | 15345.0822649573 | -1418.08226495726 |
| 25 | 35647 | 35152.6734500068 | 494.326549993218 |
| 26 | 31746 | 31296.5196038529 | 449.480396147065 |
| 27 | 31277 | 34621.0580653914 | -3344.05806539140 |
| 28 | 31583 | 32720.4719848053 | -1137.47198480532 |
| 29 | 25607 | 28958.4719848053 | -3351.47198480532 |
| 30 | 28151 | 29084.4719848053 | -933.471984805316 |
| 31 | 24947 | 24586.3950617284 | 360.604938271605 |
| 32 | 18077 | 21221.3950617284 | -3144.39506172840 |
| 33 | 23429 | 23090.8566001899 | 338.143399810066 |
| 34 | 26313 | 26978.6258309592 | -665.625830959164 |
| 35 | 18862 | 21694.5732431149 | -2832.57324311491 |
| 36 | 14753 | 14902.6565764482 | -149.656576448243 |
| 37 | 36409 | 38178.9779202279 | -1769.97792022792 |
| 38 | 33163 | 34322.8240740741 | -1159.82407407407 |
| 39 | 34122 | 37647.3625356125 | -3525.36253561253 |
| 40 | 35225 | 32278.0462962963 | 2946.95370370371 |
| 41 | 28249 | 28516.0462962963 | -267.046296296295 |
| 42 | 30374 | 28642.0462962963 | 1731.95370370370 |
| 43 | 26311 | 24143.9693732194 | 2167.03062678063 |
| 44 | 22069 | 20778.9693732194 | 1290.03062678063 |
| 45 | 23651 | 22648.4309116809 | 1002.56908831909 |
| 46 | 28628 | 26536.2001424501 | 2091.79985754986 |
| 47 | 23187 | 21252.1475546059 | 1934.85244539411 |
| 48 | 14727 | 14460.2308879392 | 266.769112060779 |
| 49 | 43080 | 34267.8220729887 | 8812.17792701127 |
| 50 | 32519 | 30411.6682268349 | 2107.33177316511 |
| 51 | 39657 | 33736.2066883733 | 5920.79331162665 |
| 52 | 33614 | 31835.6206077873 | 1778.37939221273 |
| 53 | 28671 | 28073.6206077873 | 597.379392212727 |
| 54 | 34243 | 28199.6206077873 | 6043.37939221273 |
| 55 | 27336 | 23701.5436847104 | 3634.45631528965 |
| 56 | 22916 | 20336.5436847103 | 2579.45631528965 |
| 57 | 24537 | 22206.0052231719 | 2330.99477682811 |
| 58 | 26128 | 26093.7744539411 | 34.22554605888 |
| 59 | 22602 | 20809.7218660969 | 1792.27813390313 |
| 60 | 15744 | 14017.8051994302 | 1726.1948005698 |
| 61 | 41086 | 37294.1265432099 | 3791.87345679012 |
| 62 | 39690 | 33437.972697056 | 6252.02730294397 |
| 63 | 43129 | 36762.5111585945 | 6366.48884140551 |
| 64 | 37863 | 31393.1949192783 | 6469.80508072175 |
| 65 | 35953 | 27631.1949192783 | 8321.80508072175 |
| 66 | 29133 | 27757.1949192783 | 1375.80508072175 |
| 67 | 24693 | 23259.1179962013 | 1433.88200379867 |
| 68 | 22205 | 19894.1179962013 | 2310.88200379867 |
| 69 | 21725 | 21763.5795346629 | -38.5795346628669 |
| 70 | 27192 | 25651.3487654321 | 1540.6512345679 |
| 71 | 21790 | 20367.2961775878 | 1422.70382241216 |
| 72 | 13253 | 13575.3795109212 | -322.379510921178 |
| 73 | 37702 | 33382.9706959707 | 4319.02930402930 |
| 74 | 30364 | 29526.8168498168 | 837.183150183151 |
| 75 | 32609 | 32851.3553113553 | -242.355311355309 |
| 76 | 30212 | 30950.7692307692 | -738.769230769232 |
| 77 | 29965 | 27188.7692307692 | 2776.23076923077 |
| 78 | 28352 | 27314.7692307692 | 1037.23076923077 |
| 79 | 25814 | 22816.6923076923 | 2997.30769230769 |
| 80 | 22414 | 19451.6923076923 | 2962.30769230769 |
| 81 | 20506 | 21321.1538461538 | -815.153846153846 |
| 82 | 28806 | 25208.9230769231 | 3597.07692307693 |
| 83 | 22228 | 19924.8704890788 | 2303.12951092118 |
| 84 | 13971 | 13132.9538224122 | 838.046177587844 |
| 85 | 36845 | 36409.2751661918 | 435.724833808166 |
| 86 | 35338 | 32553.121320038 | 2784.87867996201 |
| 87 | 35022 | 35877.6597815764 | -855.65978157645 |
| 88 | 34777 | 30508.3435422602 | 4268.65645773979 |
| 89 | 26887 | 26746.3435422602 | 140.656457739792 |
| 90 | 23970 | 26872.3435422602 | -2902.34354226021 |
| 91 | 22780 | 22374.2666191833 | 405.733380816714 |
| 92 | 17351 | 19009.2666191833 | -1658.26661918329 |
| 93 | 21382 | 20878.7281576448 | 503.271842355176 |
| 94 | 24561 | 24766.4973884141 | -205.497388414055 |
| 95 | 17409 | 19482.4448005698 | -2073.44480056980 |
| 96 | 11514 | 12690.5281339031 | -1176.52813390313 |
| 97 | 31514 | 32498.1193189526 | -984.11931895265 |
| 98 | 27071 | 28641.9654727988 | -1570.96547279880 |
| 99 | 29462 | 31966.5039343373 | -2504.50393433727 |
| 100 | 26105 | 30065.9178537512 | -3960.91785375119 |
| 101 | 22397 | 26303.9178537512 | -3906.91785375118 |
| 102 | 23843 | 26429.9178537512 | -2586.91785375119 |
| 103 | 21705 | 21931.8409306743 | -226.840930674265 |
| 104 | 18089 | 18566.8409306743 | -477.840930674266 |
| 105 | 20764 | 20436.3024691358 | 327.697530864196 |
| 106 | 25316 | 24324.0716999050 | 991.928300094967 |
| 107 | 17704 | 19040.0191120608 | -1336.01911206078 |
| 108 | 15548 | 12248.1024453941 | 3299.89755460589 |
| 109 | 28029 | 35524.4237891738 | -7495.42378917379 |
| 110 | 29383 | 31668.2699430199 | -2285.26994301995 |
| 111 | 36438 | 34992.8084045584 | 1445.19159544159 |
| 112 | 32034 | 29623.4921652422 | 2410.50783475784 |
| 113 | 22679 | 25861.4921652422 | -3182.49216524216 |
| 114 | 24319 | 25987.4921652422 | -1668.49216524216 |
| 115 | 18004 | 21489.4152421652 | -3485.41524216524 |
| 116 | 17537 | 18124.4152421652 | -587.415242165244 |
| 117 | 20366 | 19993.8767806268 | 372.123219373218 |
| 118 | 22782 | 23881.646011396 | -1099.64601139601 |
| 119 | 19169 | 18597.5934235518 | 571.406576448242 |
| 120 | 13807 | 11805.6767568851 | 2001.32324311491 |
| 121 | 29743 | 31613.2679419346 | -1870.26794193461 |
| 122 | 25591 | 27757.1140957808 | -2166.11409578076 |
| 123 | 29096 | 31081.6525573192 | -1985.65255731922 |
| 124 | 26482 | 29181.0664767331 | -2699.06647673314 |
| 125 | 22405 | 25419.0664767331 | -3014.06647673314 |
| 126 | 27044 | 25545.0664767331 | 1498.93352326686 |
| 127 | 17970 | 21046.9895536562 | -3076.98955365622 |
| 128 | 18730 | 17681.9895536562 | 1048.01044634378 |
| 129 | 19684 | 19551.4510921178 | 132.548907882240 |
| 130 | 19785 | 23439.220322887 | -3654.22032288699 |
| 131 | 18479 | 18155.1677350427 | 323.832264957263 |
| 132 | 10698 | 11363.2510683761 | -665.25106837607 |
| 133 | 31956 | 34639.5724121557 | -2683.57241215575 |
| 134 | 29506 | 30783.4185660019 | -1277.41856600190 |
| 135 | 34506 | 34107.9570275404 | 398.042972459639 |
| 136 | 27165 | 28738.6407882241 | -1573.64078822412 |
| 137 | 26736 | 24976.6407882241 | 1759.35921177588 |
| 138 | 23691 | 25102.6407882241 | -1411.64078822412 |
| 139 | 18157 | 20604.5638651472 | -2447.5638651472 |
| 140 | 17328 | 17239.5638651472 | 88.4361348527991 |
| 141 | 18205 | 19109.0254036087 | -904.02540360874 |
| 142 | 20995 | 22996.7946343780 | -2001.79463437797 |
| 143 | 17382 | 17712.7420465337 | -330.742046533715 |
| 144 | 9367 | 10920.8253798670 | -1553.82537986705 |
| 145 | 31124 | 30728.4165649166 | 395.583435083436 |
| 146 | 26551 | 26872.2627187627 | -321.262718762718 |
| 147 | 30651 | 30196.8011803012 | 454.198819698821 |
| 148 | 25859 | 28296.2150997151 | -2437.2150997151 |
| 149 | 25100 | 24534.2150997151 | 565.7849002849 |
| 150 | 25778 | 24660.2150997151 | 1117.7849002849 |
| 151 | 20418 | 20162.1381766382 | 255.861823361822 |
| 152 | 18688 | 16797.1381766382 | 1890.86182336182 |
| 153 | 20424 | 18666.5997150997 | 1757.40028490028 |
| 154 | 24776 | 22554.3689458689 | 2221.63105413105 |
